[Epoch Times] Polling analytics website FiveThirtyEight predicted that the Republican Party is favored to take the Senate as it shifted its previous "toss-up" prediction for the upper chamber .
The publication as of Saturday night lists Republicans’ odds of winning the Senate at 55 in 100, as opposed the Democrats’ 45 in 100 chances. Several days before that, it said that the Senate is in a "dead heat."
RealClearPolitics, meanwhile, projected that the GOP has a higher likelihood of reclaiming the Senate following next Tuesday’s elections, possibly taking as many as 54 seats to the Democrats’ 46 seats. Now, Republicans are favored by the aggregator to win the seats in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
Posted by: Bobby ||
11/07/2022 08:30 ||
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#1
Pollsters have a tough job because they can't calculate or report on the level of election corruption.
Still I'm glad to see they are starting to take their thumbs off the scales if a bit late.
#2
Five Thirty Eight is an operative masquerading as a pollster. Halloween is over so they are fudging their numbers back towards to maintain the viability of their scam in the future.
#3
Trafalgar is far and away the most accurate (or least inaccurate) of the national polling organizations. They’re the only one that Republicans are willing to talk to (Rasmussen too but they’re unreliable).
Posted by: Billy B ||
11/07/2022 12:20 Comments ||
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#4
It doesn't help that there seems to be no consequences for inaccuracy. Hacks purporting to be experts would have a less successful scam if there was no market for their wrong calls.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
11/07/2022 12:56 Comments ||
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Posted by: M. Murcek ||
11/07/2022 12:58 Comments ||
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#6
Trafalgar’s Ohio poll from last night now has JD Vance up by almost ELEVEN POINTS over Tim Ryan. Other pollsters — the left-lib pollsters whom no alert Republican will talk to — had Ryan ahead as recently as a week ago.
The only way that tomorrow cannot be a total wipeout is if we get more ballot box stuffing and other shenanigans from the Dems.
Posted by: Billy B ||
11/07/2022 14:12 Comments ||
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#7
I'm deeply amused to go to RealClearPolitics site and see all the polls they are touting that show various candidates up by a fraction of a point. Isn't the usual "margin of error" +/- 3 points?
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
11/07/2022 14:19 Comments ||
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#8
Trafalgar now shows GA breaking for Walker. Very close to the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
WI breaking for Johnson.
PA breaking for Oz.
OH’s in the bag.
Big big night tomorrow. Great Ukraine Grift ends in 30 hours.
Tick tock
Posted by: Billy B ||
11/07/2022 14:19 Comments ||
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#9
Isn't the usual "margin of error" +/- 3 points?
In 2020 the Democrat pollsters were so biased, they were off by 5 points or more in dozens of states — always tilted toward Biden, of course.
Trafalgar’s the only major pollster that played it straight. They were the most accurate by far.
Posted by: Billy B ||
11/07/2022 14:24 Comments ||
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#10
Forget the Ukraine, we need to cut off the pork tap for EVERYONE.
#11
Isn't the usual "margin of error" +/- 3 points?
Good question, M. It depends on the size of the sample they’re polling plus other factors like how closely the sample matches the total population it’s supposed to represent. When the numbers are within the margin of error, we used to call it directional — pointing out that this meant the differences might not be real, as compared to significant at whatever confidence level (90%, 95%, 99%, etc.). I imagine professional pollsters use the same vocabulary.
#13
They could steal it, sure, but JD Vance being up by double digits is a bellwether.
Posted by: Billy B ||
11/07/2022 16:40 Comments ||
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#14
Even when/if the Dems lose, they'll still have 3 months to sow their 'revenge'.
Posted by: Mullah Richard ||
11/07/2022 16:50 Comments ||
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#15
The pubs could give the dems a good dose of their "quorum denial" medicine between Nov 8 and the seating of the next congress. As the dems like prescribing it, they should love taking a dose themselves.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
11/07/2022 17:10 Comments ||
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#16
Watch for the DOJ/FBI run out some charges against Reps for vote tampering. They will go after the high profile GOP winners. May not allow them to take their seats in Congress.
[PJ] When the story of the 2022 midterm elections is written, there will probably be considerable space devoted to the unlikely way in which Republicans were able to win their majority.
As it stands now — the Saturday before election day — the Democrat’s road to a Senate majority is extremely narrow. Best case scenario: they may be able to lose two seats while still retaining their 50-50 advantage with Vice President Harris casting the deciding vote.
The current board shows 6 toss-up races. Two of those seats are currently in the GOP’s hands — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two other Republican-held seats in Ohio and Florida were toss-ups at one time but have moved into the "lean GOP" category.
If Democrats manage to win in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Republicans will have to win at least three of the remaining Democratic-held toss-up seats to win a one-seat majority. It would be a challenge but certainly not impossible.
But in a truly tsunami-like election, the wave becomes a destructive force for Democrats, meaning that even seats that "lean Democratic" may be in play. This means that Sen. Maggie Hassan’s New Hampshire seat is up for grabs as well as Sen. Patty Murray’s Washington Senate seat.
#1
In New Hampshire - And while Hassan was vulnerable, Democrats decided to give “election denier” Dan Bolduc $3.2 million to win a primary against a more moderate candidate.
But that genius move was offset by McConnell's not supporting Bolduc with cash.
In a few days, we'll see the wisdom of those moves.
Posted by: Bobby ||
11/07/2022 8:00 Comments ||
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#2
Echoes of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos." But the donks stepped on their d*cks.
Somewhere El Rushbo smiles...
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
11/07/2022 8:03 Comments ||
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#3
The Democrats will harvest and cure fix just enough mail-in ballots in PA and GA to steal those elections. Again.
This means that the voter databases, as maintained by the state, is essentially non-functioning as election day approaches.
SURE is the state-wide system to maintain accurate voting records that county election officials can rely on when managing and facilitating polling places in their counties.
#6
The PA Secretary of State Leigh Chapman was smacked around by their Supreme Court on undated ballots (as required by strict language) and still said she wasn't going to follow their rulings...
Posted by: Frank G ||
11/07/2022 9:10 Comments ||
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#7
#4 Yes, we are told voting is so important that technology must be used. That's working out so well...
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
11/07/2022 9:30 Comments ||
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#10
I suppose the task before the deepState now is to make the republicans lose by a narrow, believable margin. So as to not invite mass civil disturbance. Because if the Dems 'win', it'll be pretty obvious what's going on.
#12
If things go well, on Wednesday denying election results is going to be the highest form of patriotism.
Posted by: Matt ||
11/07/2022 12:21 Comments ||
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#13
If you are registered and don't vote, your registration is available to the cheaters. Every registered voter who shows up on election day and votes, reduces the margin of fraud via camouflaged fake ballots assigned to valid registrations.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
11/07/2022 12:26 Comments ||
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#14
make the republicans lose by a narrow, believable margin.
20,000 vote margin in each of AZ, GA and PA.
The accompanying narrative will be “poor candidate quality” did in the Republicans
[USAWatchdog] Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says, "The cheating in the midterm election next week is going to be so great that it is almost impossible to make a prediction. . . . In a fair midterm election, the Republicans would win the House and the Senate."
So, what does his Socrates program see for next week? Armstrong, says, "It’s going to be tight, and the Republicans have a shot at taking the House. Technically, they should take the House and the Senate. I am just not sure. The corruption is so bad, it’s crazy. Pennsylvania sent out hundreds of thousands of ballots to people who are not documented or even American. I’ve gotten emails from people in Canada, they are getting mail-in ballots. They mailed them to Canada. . . .Where this ends up, who knows? It’s just so corrupt, it is over the top. It doesn’t matter who wins. Nobody is going to accept this thing, and that is the problem."
The cheating is going to be so in your face President Trump may not even be able to run for President two years from now. Armstrong contends, "We may not even have an election in 2024. It is not looking very good, and it’s probably because this election is not going to be accepted. When it is so over-the-top corrupt, what do you do for the next one? The United States will not exist after 2032. After 2028 and 2029, we are going to have to redesign a government from scratch. America is being destroyed. Republics always end in absolute corruption. We just saw the same thing happen in Brazil. They staged a major effort to take Bolsonaro out. . . . This is a worldwide effort. They had to get rid of Trump. The other one who stood in their way is Bolsonaro. Then there is Putin (Russia) and Xi Jinping (China). I think you are going to have historians look back at this 50 years from now, and they will call this period ’The Climate Change Wars’. . . .They are trying to take down as much oil energy capacity as possible."
Armstrong is still seeing very strong signals on domestic violence everywhere. Armstrong explains, "Our computer is showing it’s going to be a rocket launch for volatility and civil unrest next year."
Armstrong also contends there will be a major loss of confidence in government around the world. That means gold will start having big demand from big money. Armstrong also predicts, "The whole monetary system as we know it is collapsing. That was what the bond crisis in the UK was about."
[Amac] With Republicans poised to make major gains in next week’s midterm elections, many Democrats are already pointing fingers and shirking blame for what looks to be a catastrophic wave of election losses.
As they did in 2020 and 2021, the "progressive" wing of the Democratic Party is leading the charge in the blame game. Two years ago, following a disastrous performance for House Democrats, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), echoing the sentiment of other members of the "Squad," said that it was actually Democrats’ refusal to lean more into radical policies like "Defund the Police" which cost them seats. "The conversation is a little bit deeper than saying anything progressive is toxic," she said then, despite clear evidence that voters were deeply opposed to progressive policies. And if AOC knows anything, she knows "deep". Right
Apparently still unwilling to admit that voters have rejected their far-left agenda, progressives are again expressing frustration that the Democratic Party has not been radical enough throughout the 2022 campaign season. Last month, Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) pushed back on the suggestion that "Defund the Police" had hurt Democrats electorally, telling CNN host Don Lemon that "there is no data that actually shows that saying ’defund the police’ cost actual elections." Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, has said that Democrats didn’t go "big enough" in implementing price controls and other expensive government programs.
Meanwhile, Democrats hoping to cultivate a "moderate" image and hide their record of radical votes have blamed progressives for not focusing on kitchen table issues like the economy and crime. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, one of the most endangered Democrat incumbents this fall, took a subtle dig at progressives’ obsession with policies like the Green New Deal and student debt forgiveness, saying that "if you can’t speak directly to people’s pocketbook and talk about our vision for the economy, you’re just having half a conversation." (Notably, however, Slotkin joined House Democrats in voting for the big spending policies which caused those pocketbook concerns for voters.)
Even former President Obama — himself no stranger to far-left policies — has piled on criticism of progressives. "Sometimes, people just want to not feel as if they are walking on eggshells," Obama said on a podcast late last month, referring to the perception of Democrats as "pronoun police" more concerned with political correctness than issues like inflation and the economy. He went on to say that Democrats need to avoid being a "buzzkill." Former Bill Clinton advisor James Carville has been even more direct, saying that progressives "are all kind of nice people," but "they’re very naive, and they’re all into language and identity. And that’s alright... But they’re not winning elections."
Other Democrats facing losses in congressional races are also grumbling that weak gubernatorial candidates are dragging them down. In New York and California in particular, Democratic operatives are worried that unpopular governors Kathy Hochul and Gavin Newsom — both facing reelection this year — will lead to losses in certain key House races, even if Hochul and Newsom manage to win. Democrat strategists have also privately expressed concern that Georgia gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams — who trails Republican Governor Brian Kemp by more than eight points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average — is dragging down Senator Raphael Warnock in his reelection bid.
#2
Their destruction of the economy is obvious. Their destruction of law enforcement is obvious. They have made obvious attacks on the family. Weak gubernatorial candidates is about 15th on the list. Most of their candidates are horrible. They have found a way to make Dr Oz to look like the only sane choice for a Senate seat.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
11/07/2022 5:40 Comments ||
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#3
The biggest problem with their 'circular firing squad' is they're shooting rhetoric instead of bullets. It would be waaay more entertaining if they did that.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
11/07/2022 11:07 Comments ||
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#4
They're calling each other slippery worthless bastards.
[Babylon Bee] Wondering why people actually still vote for Democrats? Believe it or not, there are still Democrat voters out there and we've compiled their top reasons for doing so!
1. They're dead: Hard to object to candidates like Joe Biden when you are no longer alive!
2, They're Drag Queens worried about losing their God-given right to dance in underwear in front of kids: It's in The Constitution.
3, Because Bono said that's what good people do: Listening to U2 was their first mistake.
4. Still holding out for one of those free Obama phones: An iPhone 6! NICE!
5, To convince others that they aren't Christian Nationalists: They're one of the "good" Christians.
6. They live in Chicago and a stray bullet punched right through the "D" side of the ballot: It happens far too often.
7. Their covid booster made them do it: Once the signal gets sent out, they have no other choice.
8. They think elections are like golf and the lowest score wins: Elections are not, in fact, like golf where the lowest amount wins.
9. Their mail-in ballot was already filled out in permanent marker: Now that's strange! Mail-in voting is the most secure kind of voting!
10. Government spending and taxes make them feel all warm and fuzzy inside: As if we know how to spend our own money. The government knows best!
Now we didn't say these are good reasons, but now you know the top reasons why Democrats manage to still get votes.
#1
Seriously there are actually only three reasons:
1. You're as corrupt as the rest of them.
2. You're not personally corrupt, but you're willing to ignore their corruption to get your own pet hobbyhorse taken care of.
3. You're too f'ing stupid to realize how corrupt they are.
Posted by: Frank G ||
11/07/2022 8:39 Comments ||
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#3
5. You are a 'rent seeker' (or have immediate family that are) or work for the government (includes academia and school teachers) and don't understand that you are paid with Other Peoples Money™.
[Rudaw] Iran’s violent mostly peaceful crackdown on the protests that have engulfed all parts of the country for the past seven weeks have sent shivers down the spines of the country’s population, as recent reported killings suggest that it is not only protesters that stand the risk of losing their lives on the hands of the security forces.
At least 304 people have been killed across Iran ...The nation is noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence... since protests began in mid-September, including 40 children, with at least 40 of the deaths been recorded in the country’s western Kurdish areas (Rojhelat). Iranian authorities accuse whom they refer to as "rioters" of inciting chaos in the country, yet the killing of regular bystanders by Iranian security forces demonstrates that protesters are not the only ones being targeted by the regime.
"Hello, sir. I am sorry but I will not be coming back to school as long the situation continues like this. I am afraid of going out the house. They kill people without hesitation. They even kill those that have done nothing," a 16-year-old female student in the Kurdish city of Sanandaj wrote in a text message to her teacher, who preferred his name to be omitted due to security concerns, last week.
At least 16 Kurds were killed in the mass protests of Rojhelat last week, marking the 40th day of mourning for Mahsa (Zhina) Amini, whose death in detention in Tehran in mid-September sparked a nationwide protest movement.
Crowds flocked to the streets of Baneh on the afternoon of October 27 in protest. As security forces began opening fire on the demonstrators, frightened bystanders rushed home to avoid the live ammunition, among them was 40-year-old father of two Mutalib Saeed Piro.
Security footage shows Piro getting out of his car to greet members of the Iranian security forces near his house, before getting back into his car. Nonetheless, the gunnies can be seen attacking Piro’s car and breaking the window, before one of them fires at him in close range.
Wounded, Piro tries to drive home but loses consciousness in his car from excessive bleeding before reaching his house. After spending less than an hour in the hospital, Piro, who worked as a car dealer, succumbed to the severity of the wounds caused by the bullet that hit the right side of his back.
On the same night, 28-year-old Faraidun Faraji was waiting for customers outside the pizza place he worked at in the city of Baneh before he was shot by the Iranian forces. He was taken to a hospital in the city and underwent surgery but passed away soon after.
His body was taken back to his home city of Saqqez that same night, and he was buried in Aichi graveyard, where Amini’s body also lays to rest.
Mother of two Fereshteh Ahmadi, 32, was visiting the house of a relative in the city of Mahabad with her children on October 27. She died when the forces shot up her while she was on the rooftop of the house.
"They are Kurd killers and murderers," Ahmadi’s husband is heard crying on her grave in a video clip, emphasizing that his wife was never a part of the protests on the streets.
Media outlets linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed that she was killed by "rioters". Ibrahim Ahmadi, the victim’s brother, denied the claims, adding that he had been contacted by the authorities to file complaints but rejected reports that such complaints were made.
Jalal Mahmoudzadeh, a Mahabad MP of the Iranian parliament, told Rudaw that Ahmadi was not a part of the demonstrations and was "innocent".
For around eight weeks since the killing of Amini on September 16, Iranians across the country have protested against oppression and have called for the overthrow of the regime.
The authorities in Tehran have ordered an unprecedented crackdown, killing hundreds and wounding thousands as many more languish in detention.
Posted by: trailing wife ||
11/07/2022 00:15 ||
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#1
Protestors not the sole target of Iranian Security Forces' crackdown
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
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Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[Epoch Times] Polling analytics website FiveThirtyEight predicted that the Republican Party is favored to take the Senate as it shifted its previous "toss-up" prediction for the upper chamber .
[USAWatchdog] Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says, "The cheating in the midterm election next week is going to be so great that it is almost impossible to make a prediction. . . . In a fair midterm election, the Republicans would win the House and the Senate."
Biden-Fetterman 2024 
[Babylon Bee] Wondering why people actually still vote for Democrats? Believe it or not, there are still Democrat voters out there and we've compiled their top reasons for doing so!
...The nation is noted for 
