And then send out his hunting dogs to find it again.
[The Nation (Nairobi)] Miracles happen, now and then. Sudan President Omar al-Bashir ought to be among those praying for one: that southern Sudanese don't opt to secede.
A referendum scheduled for January 9 to 15 gives them that option. That's as par the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, CPA, the government, and the rebel Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) signed.
Contrary to popular opinion, the 2005 CPA ended a longer conflict. Trouble started with a 1948 British decision to place the South and the North under one administration.
Anger mounted after the southerners got peanuts from 800 jobs Britons relinquished during self-rule five years later.
Outright war broke after the North reneged on a federal system at independence in 1956. Then for 10 years, Khartoum sabotaged a 1972 peace deal arrangement. War resumed. Then the CPA came, 21 years later.
The events explain why the southerners are almost certain to secede. Mr Salva Kiir Mayardit, the south's president and national vice-president, is cheering them on. Last week he told them to "dream of our forefathers" come the referendum.
The BBC quoted a resigned Mr Al Bashir telling the southerners Tuesday, "If you want unity, you are more than welcome. . . If you want separation, you are also welcome." He forgot, Inshallah!
If the southerners opt for secession, their leaders are to draft a new constitution and schedule elections. On July 9, the 55th African state will come into being.
Leaders, among them former US President George W. Bush and Kenya's Daniel arap Moi, whose governments played a major role in negotiating the CPA and aren't' that modest, will thump chests. Only the flow of the White Nile will rival that of tears of joy.
That's as far as the euphoria need go. Booby traps lie ahead.
Explosive issues remain pending. These include Abyei, a tiny oil-rich enclave. A referendum to determine if residents wish to remain part of Sudan or join the South will not take place due to disagreements.
Then there's boundary demarcation, security arrangements, liabilities and assets, and citizenship. People have focused a great deal of attention on the South. Seemingly forgotten are changes the North needs.
These include re-arranging the structure of government, including a new constitution. It will lose resources and revenue.
That the shock of losing nearly a third of Sudan might lead to violence against resident southerners can't be ruled out.
The same goes for political instability because "Al Bashir lost southern Sudan." Generals loathe politicians who lose territory.
Resources endowed as it is--oil, fertile soil, minerals, including gold, and lots of water--the South remains, relatively speaking, a wasteland.
Even if well managed, and vices like corruption are taking root, it will take time for the new nation to become viable.
Moreover, the South isn't homogenous. Additionally, 20 political parties aren't a recipe for stability.
Add to that disgruntled former rebels who already have become a headache for the SPLM. Incidentally, uniformed elements in the North have mastered the art of using proxies.
For the southerners and supporters, it's worth remembering the old saying: a deal isn't one until it's done.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/03/2011 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
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Top|| File under: Govt of Sudan
#1
For every muslim armed jihad always is a choice...
#1
FTA: "The Chinese economy is heading toward an economic hard landing; it will overshoot to the downside and become the economic Black Swan event of 2011-2012. Inflation, yes both types, will be the story in China in the coming months.
The steps necessary for an economic black swan landing have all happened, what is next is just the crash landing. The rains in Australia have cemented Chinas economic slowdown. The rains will have longer lasting implications for both economies."
Article ties the flooding in Australia with the consequences in China; economic links I had never considered before...
* TOPIX > CHINA CLAIMS IT HAS MASTERED RE-PROCESSING OF NUCLEAR FUEL [recycling of irradiated = spent nuclear fuel].
ARTIC = China's PROVEN URANIUM RESERVES may now be able to last 3000 YEARS, instead of 50-70 Years as prior].
* RENSE > {HenryMakow.com] THE COMING GERMAN SUPERPOWER.
AUSTRO-HUNGARIAN EMPIRE = HAPSBURGS REDUX???
HMMMM, HMMMM, methinks its more correct to argue RUSSO-GERMAN SUPERPOWER, presum that the East Euros + espec MOSCOW can agree to coop + merger wid Berlin???
From the overheating East to a troubled West, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offers his predictions on the global economy next year. Maybe time to revisit Niall Ferguson's classic "Empires on the Edge of Chaos" (skip intro)
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Mr. Wife says* there is still enough slack in the Chinese economy to absorb the cost of high-priced American coal as well as the 20% increase in the minimum wage. He says that the economy is growing at 25% in Beijing and the coastal cities -- it's the interior that's brought the published number down. That's why they've been building railroads -- to enable industry to move inland and gets the spare farmers' sons and daughters into paid labour.
*He just said it a moment ago when I read him the key bits of the article.
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Good, but methinks I'll just go wid OLD DREAM/VISION > "DUBYA" [Global Warming] + "PEAK OIL/RESOURCES" = FUTURE FUEL-STARVED USA TRYS TO SELL OLD USAF PLANE PARTS TO FUEL-STARVED CHINA, to maintain a POTEMKINIST, SURREAl = PDENIABLE semblance of MODERNITY = NON-COLLAPSE OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION.
This is a documentary aired on Norwegian Television, Nov, 2010 (English subtitles).
Is Islam a threat to the western world and our way of living and is it the goal of Islam to take over the world and make us all slaves of the islamic cult?
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Is Islam a threat to the western world and our way of living and is it the goal of Islam to take over the world and make us all slaves of the islamic cult?
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
