The WaPo gives a Moslem Brotherhood rep lots of column space in its editorial section. It is of course full of phrases crafted to hide the truth. For example, Abdel Moneim Abou el-Fotoah says, "...it is our position that any future government we may be a part of will respect all treaty obligations made in accordance with the interests of the Egyptian people." So if a treaty obligation was not made 'in accordance...", they can trash it.
and the NYT has given Essam El-Errian lots of column space in its editorial section. Similar tayiqqah from him.
Posted by: lord garth ||
02/10/2011 08:53 ||
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Hat tip Gates of Vienna
It is essential to take William (Bill) Kristol seriously. He has been so utterly wrong on so many things (Americas ability to run the world, NATO, Turkey, the Balkans, Chechnya, Iraq, Sarah Palin, Russia, Iran, Georgia, John McCain, missile defense . . . ) that his pronouncements merit respect. Being consistently wrongin the fleeting guise of things measurably empirical, that isthey contain a deeper wisdom. Kristols analysis is the equivalent of Tetzels dropping penny: The form may seem inane, but the message reverberates in faraway places.
[Asharq al-Aswat] There can be no doubt that the protestors in Cairo's Tahrir Square have proved their point regarding the departure of President Mubarak. However, The infamous However... those who have followed the situation in Egypt for years realize that the departure of the President may not change the conditions in Egypt; in fact living conditions could perhaps get worse. My aim here is not to diminish the importance of what happened, the protests have forced the President to step down from power [at the next elections], and the presidency will not be passed down to his son or one of his associates, whilst constitutional reforms and the establishment of fair elections have also been promised. However, The infamous However... for those waiting for Egypt to transform into a Western-style democratic country, or for the establishment of a prosperous middle class, or for the economic conditions of millions of poor people to improve; these are hopes that are becoming increasingly difficult [to achieve] day by day.
Today, many could say that the primary aim of the protests was to eradicate oppression and political tyranny, and enable Egyptians to make their own decisions, with dignity. However, The infamous However... these people may have forgotten, as their opposition reaches greater heights, that the rises in food prices and unemployment over the last three years -- which are two global phenomena -- have had a direct impact upon the direction of events [in Egypt]. Social networking websites -- such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube -- provided the necessary arena for the demonstrators to mobilize, plan, and communicate, away from the interference of the authorities. However, The infamous However... what happened in Egypt -- at least what can be observed, as of now -- was not the "Facebook Revolution" or the "Twitter Revolution", nor did it only consist of "democratic" protests or demands for "freedom". True, the recent demonstrations may have raised banners such as "poverty", "despotism", "justice", and many others, but the variety of slogans, as well as the diversity of participants, both ideologically and politically, means only one thing: this was "rage" against the ruling regime. The majority of key players in the initial protests were lower middle class youths who suffer from unemployment, or who work in modest jobs, even though they are educated to a university standard. This demographic, whose numbers are officially estimated at 5 million, were able to communicate via the internet and organize themselves. The chances of their success increased with the general air of popular resentment and rage at the situation in the country, and the events in Tunisia which represented the straw that broke the camel's back.
Today it is difficult to review and assess the regime of President Mubarak in a rational and balanced manner because of the state of popular upheaval that we are witnessing. However if we can say anything today, it is that President Mubarak should have stepped down in a dignified manner a long time ago. His era has witnessed successes, and many significant mistakes, but over the last ten years in particular, there have been signs of old age and senility at the top levels of Egyptian power. Subsequently, the country sank into a debate surrounding the possibility of hereditary rule, and different wings of the National Democratic Party competed to monopolize money and power, amidst poverty and [popular] discontent, with some state institutes -- most notably the security agencies -- becoming mere instruments of the regime, rife with corruption and authoritarianism.
Despite all this, Mubarak's era being solely held responsible for the deteriorating conditions in Egypt will not help to resolve this crisis, in fact the problems afflicting Egyptian society will likely get worse, before they improve in the long run.
Within a few months, Egyptians will be able to elect a new president, amend the constitution, and achieve an elected parliament; yet solving the problems of the Egyptian state may take decades. 700,000 Egyptians enter the job market each year; 417,000 of whom are high school or university graduates, whilst only 18 percent of this figure will have graduated from technical or medical departments. These statistics are compounded by the declining overall level of education in Egypt, which is now globally classified as ranking 106 out of 130 countries. Not only this, but the Egyptian state is considered one of the most bloated states in the world, in terms of government apparatus, in other words the state and the public sector employ more people than is strictly required. The state has also financed projects to support services and basic needs in a manner that is beyond the country's economic capacity to meet, in a bid to buy the silence of the poor. This is not to mention Egypt's population kaboom, which means that for decades, Egyptian state institutions will be unable to find solutions to housing or health problems, or rectify poverty levels in the country.
The Egyptian government is dependent on six major sources to achieve economic growth: tourism, oil and gas revenue, the Suez Canal, foreign investment, remittance for expatriate employment, and foreign aid. Any future government must protect the three sources that have been affected by the current crisis: tourism, foreign investment, and foreign aid. David Mack has warned against rushing to applaud the events in Egypt because the challenges of economic and structural reform will perhaps be too much for any one or two generations to overcome, especially if food prices and unemployment continue to rise, not to mention a decline in tourism, and shrinking foreign aid and investment in general. In this case, "the U.S. media and armchair theoreticians of democracy in the United States will be able to walk away at the end of the day. The Tunisians and Egyptians will not". (David Mack, Hold the Applause, Foreign Policy, 3rd February 2011)
Currently, many fear the rise of the Mohammedan Brotherhood, and this fear is justified, yet it is not likely that the Mohammedan Brotherhood will be able to form the next Egyptian government on its own, either due to their inability to acquire sufficient votes, or for fear of international reaction. As a result, we are likely to witness short-term coalition governments. Today, Egyptian expectations are higher [than before], their criticisms will be greater now that they are aware that they possess the power to force [political] change at any time; if this were to occur Egypt may cease to function internally, amidst partisan and political conflicts that could last for decades.
As you can see, the problems in Egypt cannot be solely blamed upon the president -- or corruption during his presidency. This is because, according to international reports, there is a widespread culture of corruption and bribery, inefficiency, and a lack of accountability in all aspects of society. Thus the coming days may pose greater challenges, because the stability that Egypt lived through for three decades -- albeit in a non-democratic manner -- ensured tremendous growth in tourism, and foreign investment. Assuming that tourism will continue and develop, foreign investment may not grow to the same extent, because investors have become unsettled by the magnitude of changes that Egypt may undergo in the coming phase with regards to its legislative and economic framework.
In his important book "The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century", Samuel Huntington said that: "Judging on past experience, the two most influential factors in the stability and expansion of democracy are economic development and politicianship". Any researcher who knows the political reality in Egypt is aware that there are many social and traditional obstacles preventing this.
The Tahrir Square youth have been able to make their voices heard by the world, but the crucial matter here is not one of objection and protest -- for others have tried this in many other countries -- but rather in transforming these protests into political and economic gains...that is true success.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
02/10/2011 00:00 ||
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#1
IMO the majority of the Egypt's People = Voters trust Mubarak enough to keep his word + leave office in September 2011 - it would appear that the impetus for the Protestors is prepping their choice(s) of Political Candidates ready to run in election.
THE MAHA-RUSHIAN QUESTIONNE' IS HOW BOTH INTERNAL GOVT. + ISLAMIST HARDLINERS WILL RESPOND IN INTERIM TO THE PROSPECT OF WAITNG UNTIL THE FORMAL SEPTEMBER ELEX.
#2
Many in this country see a demonstration and automatically assume the current regime surely will fall. Not always the case. There is significant opposition to Mubarak, but there is also significant support (inside and outside) the country. Mubarak is running out the clock on the protesters and allowing them to gather, chant, and clash with his hired goons. Two outcomes are possible: 1) After a few weeks they will lose steam or 2) a bloody clash will occur. It looks like the Mubarak side will be better equipped so they will prevail. The wild card would be the military, but so far they haven't stopped the protests or the attacks from Mubarak supporters.
#4
(1)The Egyptian protestors are unlikely to back down. (2) The Egyptian Army in reality is divided but is dominated by Mubarak Regime senior officers who will look to their own cushy perks.
The Army if faced with lasting unrest will tend to side against the protestors.(3) at some point and soon the Army will attempt to clear Tahrir Square. When they do the protestors will try to stop them and there will be bloodshed. The protestors are unarmed and have no apparent leaders. The military will clear the square. (4) Then the revolt will spread across Egypt.The Hungarian Revolution was a spontaneous nationwide revolt against the government of the People's Republic of Hungary and its Soviet-imposed policies, lasting from 23 October until 10 November 1956.
The revolt began as a student demonstration which attracted thousands as it marched through central Budapest to the Parliament building. A student delegation entering the radio building in an attempt to broadcast its demands was detained. When the delegation's release was demanded by the demonstrators outside, they were fired upon by the State Security Police (ÁVH) from within the building. The news spread quickly and disorder and violence erupted throughout the capital. While Molotov cocktails may be a psychologically effective method of disabling armoured fighting vehicles by forcing the crew out or damaging external components, most modern tanks cannot be physically destroyed or rendered completely inoperable by Molotov cocktails; only "disabled". invulnerable to Molotov cocktails. Only external components such as optical systems, antennas, externally-mounted weapons systems or ventilation ports and openings can be damaged, which can make a tank virtually "blind" or allow burning gasoline to seep into the vehicle, forcing the crew to at least open the hatches or perhaps abandon the vehicle. If thrown into a tank, it would, like most other grenades, seriously affect the crew inside.
Freedom isnt free. No one gives you freedom. You take it and hold it yourself. If you think you dont have to fight you are a fool. You had better learn that. The Egyptian Army will look after its own interests. There is no love in a gun. And armies are not your friend, even if they are your army. The purpose of a thing is always itself.
Translation from a ChiCom journal. rtwt for a glimpse at how some perceive China's position in the world. IMHO China is far too eager to supplant the US as the hegemon and regain its position as the center of the world. The US was far more reticent to assume its position on the world stage until there was no rival left standing. China will stumble well before any of the author's ambitions for the middle kingdom can be realized.
Throughout the history of the new China (since 1949), peace in China has never been gained by giving in, only through war. Safeguarding national interests is never achieved by mere negotiations, but by war.
Therefore, China must adhere to a basic strategic principle: We will not attack unless we are attacked; if we are attacked, we will certainly counterattack. We must send a clear signal to our neighboring countries that we don't fear war, and we are prepared at any time to go to war to safeguard our national interests.
China's neighboring countries need China's international trade more than China needs them, with the vast majority of China's trade deficit caused by these countries. Therefore, they, but not China, will suffer greater damage by antagonizing China. China should make good use of these economic advantages and strategic power. This is also the most effective means to avoid a war.
#2
D *** NG IT, CHINA WAS JUST INNOCENTLY MINDING ITS OWN BUSINESS SINKING US AIRCRAFT CARRIERS IN EAST ASIA WHEN DASTARDLY OSAMA = RADICAL ISLAM DECIDED TO NUKE WASHINGTON!
#4
Interesting article. Especially the bit on anti-satellite space war. Lots of barely repressed grievances and seething. Love the part about the New York Times and CNN being pawns of the American government.
Ya know, I'm getting the impression the ChiComs don't buy into the whole Tom Barnett Core/Gap thing.
#8
Exactly my impression, Darth. And the same lack of cohesion as old institutions are unable to cope with full exposure to modernity. The military moves in to fill the vacuum and then loses all sense of proportion. They're making a big mistake by believing what is written about them in the Make Believe Media.
The good news is that the neighbors seem to see this also and are looking for help in containing it. The problem is it is not clear whose side Bambi is on. That problem should be solved in less than two years. China will be an adolescent for the next 20 years, but it can be kept from going out of control.
#10
The Chinese flipped over from a Communist dictatorship to a National Socialist one about 11 years ago, and they have been heading down the same road that Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany trod before - pumping their military and talking openly about taking "living space" away from their neighbors all along their borders. The big question is whether the Chinese credit and real estate bubble will pop before or after they initiate a world war in Asia.
#11
The military moves in to fill the vacuum and then loses all sense of proportion.
It's not going to get better any time soon. As a result of the one child policy plus selective gender-based abortion, they have a huge demographic bulge of young men who can't find wives. Historically, such societies get martial and aggressive and often trigger wars, with the result that their surplus testosterone either conquers territory and marries local women or gets killed off ... usually a combination of both.
#12
The problem isn't so much the horney teens as the aggressive generals. Do they send their teens to recapture Siberia or Kashmir? One leads to further decay in a decadent power, the other to world war. Which they choose is important. We can help them reach the right decision. Unless we repeat our mistakes of the thirties. And given today's performance...
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