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[PowerLine] In a perfect coda to the midterm elections, MSNBC is touting Senator-elect John Fetterman — his doctor said he was better, man — to run for president. It is an ingenious attempt to build a seamless transition from President Biden to the Democratic future. Fetterman should indeed be the face of the Democratic Party, or at least its neck.
The future beckons. The possibilities are limitless. Unfortunately, we have plenty of time to think about it while the votes are counted in Arizona, California, Alaska and other backwaters of these United States. It occurs to me this morning that giving Fetterman his own show on MSNBC would be far more fitting. Could be worse.
[TOWNHALL - It's Kurt] The red wave we expected is, as of this writing, a red splash at best, and we need to rigorously evaluate exactly why the ferocious grizzly bear we expected turned out to be a gentle little bunny. We will probably end up with the House. We might get the Senate, maybe after a run-off in Georgia. Gee, familiar? But we are not going to obliterate the Dems.
Here's the thing – Biden is not only terrible, but most people think he is terrible. Yet even with that, plus the historical trends, and a powerful issue set, we did…okay at best, and lots of us are already howling. The problem is not that we did not advance – we probably will in the House at least, and as Warren Buffet once observed, you never go broke making a profit. The Senate…hmmmm. Our problem is that we set huge expectations, and they simply did not pan out.
How realistic were our expectations? In hindsight, which is the clearest and most accurate sight, not particularly realistic at all. People were talking about 50 House seats. It looks like maybe a dozen or so. The fact is that we had won a lot of the red seats in prior cycles and consolidated them – we were reaching for blue seats in 2022. To the extent we failed to hit our goal, it was a pretty hard goal. We were just not realistic about that.
This cycle's Senate map was always tough. The polls indicated they were close pretty much the whole time. Was polling inaccurate? Yes, where it gave us false hope. For example, Bolduc in New Hampshire was supposed to be close. It was…not close. This is a teachable moment, like getting hit by a car teaches you to look both ways. We need to ask ourselves what we can learn because when life gives you lemons, you must juice them and mix that juice with some sort of clear liquor, and after you sleep it off, you need to think about what went wrong.
We mentioned expectations. We need to manage them in the future. It was great to think there was a red tsunami coming, but that left us primed for disappointment. And we were.
Here's a big factor – much of America is more liberal than we want to accept, and a whole lot of Americans are willing to tolerate the garbage policies Democrats push. Some people just don't want freedom – they liked the COVID crap and support woke fascism. There are a lot of these people, though not in Florida, and liberals are gonna liberal no matter how poor and miserable that makes them and everyone else.
They say candidates matter, of course, but how much do they really? The fact is that Pennsylvania elected a bizarre ogre. Here's the thing – party allegiance is enduring in ways it never used to be. That Fetterman won is an indicator. You vote for that freak of nature only if you are purely partisan. I do not begrudge them that. It's about getting the Senate seat. But appeals pointing out the fact that Fetterman is a mutant did not get it done. Sure he's a mutant, they thought, but he's our mutant.
There will be a lot of talk about "bad candidates," which is usually started by people whose chosen candidate lost in the primary. But there is a lot of evidence that voters will vote for anybody on their side. "Good" candidates lost, too; "bad" candidates won.
There will be talk of money, and who supported which candidate sufficiently. Mitch McConnell wanted to be the Senate Majority Leader, and he might not have gotten it done. That's on him. You can argue he should not have stiffed this candidate or wasted money on that one, but it does not really matter. He had one job, and it's not clear as of this writing that he did it. This doesn't excuse other people who had a part in this clusterfark, but his job is to get the majority, and it's not clear he has.
And, of course, there's Trump. My DMs and texts are exploding with people who are all done with him, people who do not want him to run in 2024 and think he's a liability. They are quick to blame him for much of this. I think that's justified, but I think it's also too easy. If we toss him out, that doesn't solve the GOP's structural problems. A lot of voters will never vote for us. We have to fix that.
Trump certainly should own the losses of the candidates he pushed in the primaries – like Dr. Oz – just as he takes the accolades for the ones who won. He was planning to announce next week, according to many people of varying reliability. That would be a huge mistake; Republicans have a bad taste in their mouths right now, and the last thing they want to do is hear from him. Republicans are going to want to win more than ever in 2024, and the big knock on Trump is that he won't. After the results in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin in 2022 (not to mention 2020), how does he argue that he can win these states? What's the plan? More and meaner nicknames? There's no sugarcoating it – Trump was a huge loser yesterday.
What went right? The big winning theme was competence. That was really the heart of Ron DeSantis's appeal in leveling the Democrats in Florida. He's a good governor. So are Brian Kemp, Glenn Youngkin, and Greg Abbott. They get the job done – not perfectly, of course, but well enough that both normal people and some Democrats will vote for them. No drama, no trauma. Look for Ron DeSantis to wait to announce until long after Trump does, keeping his powder dry and racking up points for doing his job competently even as Trump exhausts the party with his antics, which are kicking up again in the form of fake announcements or picking dumb fights.
Election night 2022 sucked, and that's not what we were expecting. The Democrats, for their part, will be able to put off a much-needed personal inventory for a couple more years. The lesson they will take is that nothing matters – they can screw up and move up, and that seems to be true. Biden certainly runs – that senile weirdo thinks this is a personal vindication. It's not, but that does not matter. We conservatives, however, need to think through clearly how the hell we can keep election night 2024 from being another letdown.
Posted by: Mullah Richard ||
11/10/2022 07:57 ||
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Link ||
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[DonSurber] I was in a bubble this year. Tuesday's election busted it.
Hope is the thing with feathers. We were plucked.
We can talk about cheating and the fix being in and mail-in votes. We can go on and on about the deep state and the media. We can spend months in denial but the fact is, Americans do not want Donald John Trump to be their president.
He did not save the Republican Party. He spent it.
Ira Stoll was cold in his assessment of the election.
He wrote, "Donald Trump is a drag in a general election in purple states.
"In Georgia, Republican Governor Brian Kemp, who Trump doesn't like, won about 53% of the vote, while Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker, who Trump likes, was at 48% or 49% of the vote. Likewise, in New Hampshire, Governor Chris Sununu, who has distanced himself from Trump, won with about 57% of the vote, while Republican Senate candidate Dan Bolduc, a Trump fan, attracted only about 44% of the vote. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican success story of the night, won reelection with roughly 59% of the vote despite being denounced by Trump as Ron De Sanctimonious.
"There are some outliers—J.D. Vance won the Ohio Senate race despite being allied with Trump—but overall, it was not a good night for Trump. Perhaps this realization will make Republican primary voters think twice before choosing Trump-allied candidates, or Trump himself, in primaries in 2024."
The truth is not a warm puppy. It often is a snowman standing on a glacier. This is one of those times.
#1
This is really a lame and shitty analysis. JD Vance was by far the most successful of all the Trump-backed senate candidates. JD Vance didn’t narrowly win; he won easily, by a mile. And Vance alone, of all the GOP candidates, explicitly laid out an America First foreign policy. NONE of the GOP’s losers did so.
The other factor this trite and superficial reading ignores is simply the political sophistication of the various candidates. Nothing against ex-football players or other jocks, but Herschel Walker isn’t very bright.
Dr. Oz has a good grasp of anatomy and physiology but his knowledge of American culture and politics is remedial at best.
Bolduc and Masters are both proficient in their domains but they too made lots of rookie mistakes.
And the GOP did itself no favors by taking an absolutist position in abortion. Sorry but the middle of the road position — Clinton’s famous “safe, legal and rare” formulation — is the only winning position for the GOP on that issue in any closely contested election. Abortion killed many GOP House candidates and it surely torpedo’ed Oz and Bolduc as well. It’s a loser in any state that’s not deep red.
Sum: You simply can’t blame this on Trump. Intelligent, sophisticated candidates who push America First + moderate centrist stances on abortion are the formula for victory.
Posted by: Billy B ||
11/10/2022 0:18 Comments ||
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#3
Just can't face the reality. As Trump exposed Deep State, come to grips that its not a republic and hasn't been one for decades. It's an oligarchy of special interests. The rest is a facade to keep the proles from becoming too uppity. The GOP isn't going to deliver anything but the 'UniParty' participation in that oligarchy.
#4
/\ The past performance of Mitch McConnell the current minority leader serves to confirm your assessment P2k. Both sides of the isle know it's little more than a Kabuki dance, and as you say, has been for quite a few years. Cynical yes, but all evidence points to pay-for-view.
I'll take 'what is Big Tech, MIC, and Intelligence Community oligarchy' for $600. Alex.
#5
Monday-morning quarterbacks are out in force this Thursday. But do you really want the next presidential elections to be about a 82 yo and a 78 yo?
Of course Democrats would love a slugfest between Trump and De Santis. Still the smart move would be to dump Kamala, get a new VP who can handle the border crisis and then Biden steps down.
But who could do the job? I don't see a Democratic rising star.
I don't know who will win a rerun Biden vs Trump. But De Santis (if he doesn't destroy himself) will beat Biden.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
11/10/2022 7:18 Comments ||
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#6
Nothing changes except the time EC. Same chime, figures, and attire. The locals are not buying it.
#7
I watched Biden's speech. Time has been cruel to him. This won't get any better in the next 2 years.
Better pull out of Fallujah (sic) now.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
11/10/2022 7:41 Comments ||
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#8
There are clearly multiple factors involved.
But whatever the relative weight of these factors — GOP incompetence, stupid Karen-ism in the electorate, abortion, and outright Democrat fraud in the Banana Republic states like PA AZ GA — there’s one overwhelming conclusion. We cannot rely on the electoral system to fix our Republic at the national level.
We are living in a totalitarian state. Lies about the horrific pseudo-“vaccine,” lies about the pointless Forever Wars, lies about black crime, lies about Deep State crimes and Pfizer-Fauci crimes, and of course endless lies about Orange Adolf and the Evil Wooskies…
Lies, effing lies. Fetterman is sentient, Brandon is competent, the war is for “democracy”, the “vaccine” is safe and effective, inflation’s “temporary”… it’s just an Empire of Lies and Bullshit.
The ballot box will not save us. Understand and act accordingly.
Posted by: Billy B ||
11/10/2022 8:13 Comments ||
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#9
The lies and bullshit will stop when the diesel, gas and food start to run out. It will probably take a civil war in this country to end the bullshit. No one knows where the spark will occur to ignite a civil war, but it will come.
#11
Trump's endorsement of non politicians to be politicians isn't always a good strategy. Oz has too many negatives to win, religion, carpetbagger, flip flopper. Walker screams dumb jock. Vance will betray him. I suggest he stay out of primaries and endorse winners he likes.
I like Trump. There is not other conservative that can stand up to the Washington Swamp but he damaged his message with poor endorsements. Six years of damage.
#13
I thought it was telling that James Carvels came out and said the Red Wave dying was Trumps fault. The left and establishment would like nothing less than to remove Trump and they are making a full court press right now to change minds.
#15
the smart move would be to dump Kamala, get a new VP who can handle the border crisis
You don’t know WTF you’re talking about, EC.
What planet are you living on? The Democrats won’t even admit the existence of a border crisis, let alone make any effort to fix it.
That’s by design. It’s the core of their “Emerging Democratic Majority” strategy that Ruy Texeira and John Judy’s outlined two decades ago.
The Democrats have made it clear. Their explicit strategy is to bring in millions of brown people from the global South so they can turn purple states deep blue and deep red states blue.
California used to be a competitive state. Reagan and Deukmejian were popular and effective GOP governors of California. Pete Wilson was too, until the Democrats manufactured their BS “Republic hate Mexicans” lie, destroyed Wilson and began 26 years of one-party rule.
Illegal immigration is crack for Democrat politicians. They will NEVER enforce immigration law or protect the border.
Posted by: Billy B ||
11/10/2022 9:29 Comments ||
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#18
Their explicit strategy is to bring in millions of brown people from the global South so they can turn purple states deep blue and deep red states blue.
Yup. Arizona and Georgia used to be solidly red states and are now swing states thanks to illegal immigration and ballot fixing. Texas is the Donks’ next target.
Just 5-6 million more illegals and the Donks will have their own version of the Solid South. Game over. Easily achievable during the next two years at the current rate.
Posted by: Phereling Protector of the Mongol Horde7566 ||
11/10/2022 9:55 Comments ||
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#21
#11 Trump's endorsement of non politicians to be politicians isn't always a good strategy. Oz has too many negatives to win, religion, carpetbagger, flip flopper. Walker screams dumb jock.
So control of the US Senate comes down to Georgia electing a former UGA football player who can barely write his name on the ground with a stick. I voted for him in the primary and will hold my nose and vote again in the runoff. Not the kind of candidate to inspire people to turn out though.
#24
And that's the battlefield situation for Trump. The Uniparty has already shown what lengths they will go to to make sure Trump is not POTUS. They will do the same and more in 2024. The system currently in place is specifically designed to keep Trump out.
Posted by: Rex Mundi ||
11/10/2022 10:57 Comments ||
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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
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Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
/\ The past performance of Mitch McConnell the current minority leader serves to confirm your assessment P2k. Both sides of the isle know it's little more than a Kabuki dance, and as you say, has been for quite a few years. Cynical yes, but all evidence points to pay-for-view.
