In a pair of posts U.S. President Donald Trump asserted:
Diction and statistical issues aside, these tweets comprise the 92 most important words used by anyone in the past three decades. Trump just made clear the days of America protecting global shipping – particularly of oil shipping in the Middle East – are over.
Or at least about to be seriously renegotiated: “This is what is costs us us to keep the world safe; what will you do to compensate us? We will no longer do it for free.”
There is an easy argument to be made that the United States’ shale revolution will make the United States a net exporter of crude oil in the current calendar year, but to understand just how critical that is for the Americans we must first pick apart just how horrible that is for everyone else.
Head to the link to read!
End result? Today’s oil markets comprise the greatest concentration of risk in the most critical economic sector at the most vulnerable part of the global system and no one can do anything about it if the Americans leave.
And that’s just the beginning.
Oil is not the only thing being shipped around the world. A goodly portion is either raw materials and finished goods being shipped to American customers or raw materials and finished goods being shipped from American suppliers. So the American Navy will not completely get out of the business of patrolling the sea lanes.
Posted by: 3dc ||
06/26/2019 00:00 ||
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#1
As counterintuitive as it sounds, we need more carbon-heavy fuels to get to a lighter-carbon world. And that means coal and oil. A lot of oil.
So fossil fuels are important? Somebody should send this article to AOC. And Gov. Newsom.
Posted by: Bobby ||
06/26/2019 8:03 Comments ||
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#2
Somebody should send this article to AOC. And Gov. Newsom
You have to use easier concepts and words for 3rd grade comprehension, Bobby.
Posted by: Mullah Richard ||
06/26/2019 10:29 Comments ||
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#3
You have to use easier concepts and words for 3rd grade comprehension, Bobby.
#4
Oil is not the only thing being shipped around the world. A goodly portion is either raw materials and finished goods being shipped to American customers or raw materials and finished goods being shipped from American suppliers. So the American Navy will not completely get out of the business of patrolling the sea lanes.
True, but I think Zeihan's point is that the security of the Persian Gulf -- not world shipping in general -- will be a subject of American choice.
And actually, if Zeihan is correct on the effects of increased risks of oil supplies to the world economy, then even the protection of world shipping could decrease and become a matter of choice to America as the volume and "range" of that shipping decline.
Certainly, economics is not the only factor here.
We don't want to leave a vacuum that the Chinese might fill, for example.
But if Zeihan is right, then our options will be greater and better.
[Military Times] In his June 23, 2019 Military Times opinion article "America’s three big mistakes in Afghanistan," Brig. Gen. Donald C. Bolduc (Ret) correctly noted three factors, which contributed to the pending U.S. defeat in Afghanistan:
Misstep No. 1: The expansion of US forces and the introduction of large conventional units into the vast expanse of Afghanistan;
Misstep No. 2: Allowing the Taliban resurgence to occur in Afghanistan-2003-2009 and 2014-2019;
Misstep No. 3: Our inability to manage, let alone solve, Afghanistan’s illicit narcotics trade."
Yet, none of those three could have been corrected or decisive while ignoring the geopolitical realities upon which an effective strategy is based.
That geopolitical reality is Pakistan, which has never shared the same objectives for Afghanistan as the U.S. and from which American strategic "mistakes" originated, those beyond the self-inflicted wounds of poor management and accountability, well-documented by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.
American military leaders consistently violated the most fundamental of strategic principles, ones taught at every U.S. war college, know your enemy and do not mistake a war for something that is alien to its nature.
The war in Afghanistan is not an insurgency. It is a proxy war being waged by Pakistan against the U.S. and Afghanistan.
It's the babus and the bloody Parliament, those self obsessed, illiterate, megalomaniacs; they induce this state of lethargy and inactivity in an otherwise resourceful, erudite and efficient military. And morale suffers. Only yes-men and pogs are appointed to intelligence roles.
A military budget from which money disappears into lamp-lighting ceremonies and expenditures on VIP visits and useless shit. We didn't provide decent armor or rifles to the grunt for 40 fucking years... aaah ! Fuck it.
#8
Yupp, B. That is fine, but we have a responsibility to our own future generations to ensure that Pakistain not survive this century. And Israel has never screwed us, nor Russia or Japan. We can surely let mutually beneficial deals and understandings prevail within safe red-lines.
For example, Trump got on Turkey case quick for the S-400 thingy. He doesn't mind us buying it. We have a bit of pretension and protectionist tariff thing but that's everyday economics. Every leader has a duty to extract the max good for his own country.
#9
At the time we entered the Afghan war, shortly after 911, people in this country were wanting retribution for 911. George W. was on the hook to do something fairly quickly. Mistakes are made in every war. I cannot think of any "perfect, mistake-free war" that was ever fought. The global banksters make a lot of money from war.
#13
Should have sealed the borders with Iran and Pakistan and destroyed the opium crops. Ince that was done go on occasional raids into the hinterlands if intel indicates it was worthwhile.
Trying the Democracy route was well intentioned but insane.
#15
I've stopped writing long comments that refute the premise and cite sources because Frank G just deletes them in a fit of rage because he can't bear to see opposing opinions.
Who said the objective is to win in the first place? The goal is to continue the war for decades. It's highly profitable.
Posted by: Herb McCoy ||
06/26/2019 12:39 Comments ||
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#16
Post 9/11 the military incursion to punish the Afghans et al for allowing UBL to operate from their territory was perfectly acceptable, put the fear of God (ours not theirs) into them and tell them it gets much much worse if they let it happen again. But then the nation build BS and the never ending flow of money to try and bring them form the 7th century to the 2nd world, whose idea was that? W got that from his old man and the failed assumption that we could still afford to do stuff like that, or wanted to in most of the country. It is the drug war, but fight it here, not there, and get out of there ASAP.
#18
I've stopped writing long comments that refute the premise and cite sources because Frank G just deletes them in a fit of rage because he can't bear to see opposing opinions.
We used to have a "fit of rage" here now and then. Righteous fits they were. Most of those fellows have passed on or are languishing in God's waiting room somewhere.
[ENGLISH.ALARABIYA.NET] Late June saw the leading scientific journal, Science, publish an article ranking a sample of 40 countries in civic honesty, where people voluntarily refrain from opportunistic behavior. Worryingly for Arab and Islamic countries, they dominated the lowest positions in the rankings, while the highest positions were reserved for the countries with the highest living standards. While it is difficult to demonstrate a definitive causal relationship between civic honesty and economic success, the data should make policymakers think hard about the need to make people trust each other more as part of their economic strategies.
The authors of the paper, titled "Civil honesty across the globe," conducted an experiment whereby a covert associate would return a "lost" wallet to one of five societal institutions (a bank, theater/museum, post office, hotel, or cop shoppe). The wallet would contain the contact details of the fictitious owner- an email address was created by the researchers- as well as some money and some personal possessions. The associate would say that they were in a hurry, and ask the receiving staff to assist in returning the wallet to its rightful owner. They did this with 17,000 wallets across 40 countries, allowing them to create a ranking of the 40 countries in terms of the likelihood that the lost wallet be returned.
Students of economics should be unsurprised by the top five countries: Switzerland
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Posted by: Fred ||
06/26/2019 00:00 ||
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#3
As I've said before, malanthropy is intrinsic in the Arab male. Generations of harsh survival in an environment of feud, communal enmities, coups and bloodshed. The religion of islam was created only to justify these traits and weaponize them. It contains an institutionalized ideology of hatred, deception, crime, plodding gradually toward conquest. It is the ultimate Asshole Manual.
The lack of civic honesty in many countries could be simply due to economic reasons (like India). Also honesty of citizens is often directly proportional to the honesty of the governments themselves. But in islamic nations, no amount of progress or transparency has been able to reform the average delinquent muslim.
Well anyone who isn't Nordic (there's that Lutheran thingy several hundred years ago). Even they are starting to fail as well in dealing with the consequence of the influx of Islamists into their lands. What problem?
#6
You may be dubious about the hbd interpretations, but hbdchick had some interesting maps of different cultural features across Europe and the Middle East.
IIRC her hypothesis was that close cousin marriages bred attitudes of stronger family ties and weaker ties to the wider society.
Posted by: james ||
06/26/2019 21:52 Comments ||
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[MarketWatch] In the old days, it would have been absolutely essential for the United States to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz‐through which a third of the world’s crude oil passes daily‐remained open. It is less essential now, thanks to the oil shale revolution, which has once again made America an oil giant. We now produce more oil than Saudi Arabia and more than the Russians.
Meantime, China has become not only the biggest consumer of energy in the world, it has become, since 2014, the biggest importer of oil in the world. So why isn’t China‐which has an increasingly powerful blue water navy and can project its might with growing ease‐doing more to protect the flow of oil? Its oil?
So why is the United States doing the heavy lifting in the Persian Gulf? If war breaks out with Iran, it’ll be the U.S. Navy, American men and women in uniform, and the American taxpayer that will bear the burden. Not China‐which needs Mideast oil more than we do. More at link
Posted by: Seeking Cure For Ignorance ||
06/26/2019 08:43 ||
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#1
I actually thought I'd be dead before all of this became so obvious.
#2
So why isn’t China—which has an increasingly powerful blue water navy and can project its might with growing ease—doing more to protect the flow of oil? Its oil?
Good question since 20% of the world's oil is going through the Strait of Hormuz and 85% of it is going to Asian markets. It has been estimated that the U.S. has spent about $8 trillion since 1976 to protect crude oil shipments going through the Strait.
#3
It's mostly about territory. They're encroachers. Squatters and foragers. I'd rather China stay in the pacific. Before you know it you'll have floating militarized platforms off the coast of Muscat, deep sea drilling and subs circling Socotra. And claims that somehow Chabahar too belongs to the House of Han.
#5
Dron66046 all of that will lead to more respect for America and the Pax Americana they took for granted as folks try to balance Sino-arrogance and over-steps.
But still ranked pretty low, from another article - Rantburg post
"The world’s second- through sixth-most powerful navies in terms of long-range power projection are (roughly in order) Japan, the United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia. Of these only Russia need not sail forth for oil, as it has plenty of its own."
Posted by: Bobby ||
06/26/2019 11:43 Comments ||
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[Hot Air] Israel Folau’s a major rugby star in Australia and a Bible-believing Christian prone to posting things on social media which ‐ well, which Christians believe. Like this:
[Babylon Bee] WORLD‐A potentially deadly conflict appears to be looming between an unstable, rogue, warmongering nation and Iran.
The nation that seems to be teetering on the brink of war with Iran is the only one on the planet that has nuclear weapons and has used them on civilians. The country has aggressively intervened in foreign conflicts for decades and seems not to respect the sovereignty of any nation.
"We're dealing with a country that sees itself as a kind of world police force," warned one commentator. "They seem to be willing to go to frightening lengths to accomplish their foreign policy objectives, no matter the cost in materials, money, or human lives."
"There's simply no negotiating with a rogue nation like this. When they decide they want war, they'll lie, cheat, and steal until they make it happen."
#5
BE PRACTICAL AND REALISTIC. There are always going to be Wars. Wars are inevitable. And ask yourself what the track record for success in any particular war IS, and then note the Consistency of the same war success. And perhaps examine the success and consistency and measure of winning to the country having a war with Iran.
How are Iran's chances compared to the forces arrayed against it?
What is the relative size, professionalism, and technology, of the contenders? Who has the bigger population and the relative number of men on both sides ?ITAN doesn't... Who has the Navy and weapons and military size? Who has the careers to be made and the opportunities for advancement ? Iran has just enjoyed a RECENT WAR and they had LOTS of casualties. The other side didn't. The Iraqis fought Iran for several years, and then lost their own war in weeks '"Somebody "took Iraq's bullion reserves and paid for the war and kept the Gold for "safe keeping".
And Iraq's war was a"walk" And everybody in the world saw it. And it must always be remembered in War somebody wins and somebody steps on your gonads, and squashes them to bloody paste and then bayonets you in the mouth and laughs. That is what wars are all about, and that is why they call them Wars. War is not a satire or a joke or a lesson you can laugh about . Somebody WINS. Somebody LOSES.Word to the wise, Stay away from that guy who wins in weeks not years.. Iran word to the Wise.Iran PAY ATTENTION.85% of Iran's Oil is practically all their wallet it is concentrated in One Provinve bordering Iraq. Khuzestan. The population is NOT Persian in Khuzestan..its Arab. Take Khuzestan and offer it to the Soddy's and watch the Soddy's have to hold it, offer the Soddys air superiority and block the few roads over the Zagros Mountains and sell the ammo and war hardware to Soddy. Allow Soddy to sit on BOTH sides of the Hormuz straites. I see money to be made.Sell all the Afghan Dope processes in Pakistan to all the mothers in Iran. The Persians call the Azeris cockroaches. Get them to handle the Dope trade and the human trafficking for Iranian motherhood to finance their habit. Turn the Iranian graveyards into whore houses. Teach them the real meaning of war.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[ENGLISH.ALARABIYA.NET] Late June saw the leading scientific journal, Science, publish an article ranking a sample of 40 countries in civic honesty, where people voluntarily refrain from opportunistic behavior. Worryingly for Arab and Islamic countries, they dominated the lowest positions in the rankings, while the highest positions were reserved for the countries with the highest living standards. While it is difficult to demonstrate a definitive causal relationship between civic honesty and economic success, the data should make policymakers think hard about the need to make people trust each other more as part of their economic strategies.
[Hot Air] Israel Folau’s a major rugby star in Australia and a Bible-believing Christian prone to posting things on social media which ‐ well, which Christians believe. Like this:
[Babylon Bee] WORLD‐A potentially deadly conflict appears to be looming between an unstable, rogue, warmongering nation and Iran.
