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2006-02-14 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Fred 2006-02-14 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11132 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 "kick me, dammit, I like it"

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-02-14 00:19|| 2006-02-14 00:19|| Front Page Top

#2 Heh, as if they ever stopped.

Posted by .com 2006-02-14 00:19|| 2006-02-14 00:19|| Front Page Top

#3 The gauntlet is getting ready to be thrown down -the USA either accepts nuclear Iran, and by extens North Korea, etal., which in the long run also makes the NPT useless; or it does not. The USA = WORLD accepts the Islamic Extremists/
Radicals future GLOBAL CLAIPHATE, or does not. Its a given already that Dubya will be blamed for both new 9-11's inside America as well as Iran having the bomb = failing to prevent Iran from having the bomb, ala IFF AMERICA DOES NOT ATTACK AND WAGE WAR, AMERICA WILL BE ATTACKED AND WARRED AGAINST, NO MATTER WHAT POLICIES DUBYA ENACTS. FTLG, people, STAY ARMED AND READY!

Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-02-14 00:25|| 2006-02-14 00:25|| Front Page Top

#4 Has anyone seen a good estimate of how many centrifuges they actually have? I've seen numbers from 20 (leaked by western intel services) to 20,000 (from anti-mullah expatriates). Natanz is supposed to be able to handle 20,000 centrifuges. Is that estimate based on floor space or the size of the electrical substation? Someone out there must be doing an open source analysis. Hell, with Google Earth and the brainpower here, we ought to be able to figure something out. I already figured out how much juice it takes to make a uranium bomb (posted here a couple of weeks ago) and was able to obtain a same order of magnitude answer on a calculator* on the Urenco site. If a bonehead like me can get in the ball park then maybe we can figure out how far Iran's gotten.

An aside: if government analysts are as lazy as business analysts, then it's no wonder that the data leaking out is so unreliable. When the dot com bubble burst, all of them were out to lunch. I don't think that a one of them got off their asses to check the production queues in Asia and Mexico. None of them were analyzing. 99% of them were just blowing smoke. Yet the information was widely available and was well known within the industry.

* Do the freakin Euros ever learn? Jeez, just give every 3rd rate dictator in the world a handy calculator so he can figure out exactly how much ore, electricity, and industrial plant he'll need to build his own bomb. Excuse me while I go build a bomb shelter in the back yard now.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-02-14 00:51|| 2006-02-14 00:51|| Front Page Top

#5
Cleanup on aisle 5.

Posted by Master of Obvious 2006-02-14 01:23|| 2006-02-14 01:23|| Front Page Top

#6 Outing yerself, MoO?

LOL.

Posted by .com 2006-02-14 01:40|| 2006-02-14 01:40|| Front Page Top

#7 Now THAT's cleaning up after yourself!

Posted by Rex Mundi 2006-02-14 12:27|| 2006-02-14 12:27|| Front Page Top

#8 "Diplomats in Vienna...one senior diplomat said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak on the matter...Another diplomat confirmed..."

Well there ya have it...after all they're diplomats dammit! Not only that, they're European diplomats.

Posted by DepotGuy 2006-02-14 14:32|| 2006-02-14 14:32|| Front Page Top

#9 I read an estimate somewhere that it would take something like two years to manufacture and test the 20,000 centrifuges. That was a best case, so it probably assumes they have sufficient precision machining equipment for mass production. That also probably assumes they have a quality control infrastructure and the kind of work environment conducive to efficient and low defect production. (Does that sound palusible?) But also that is the easiest part. There is A LOT more to it than that, like making it work as a system.

Posted by HV 2006-02-14 15:07|| 2006-02-14 15:07|| Front Page Top

#10 Messing around with uranium hexaflouride gas is extremely dangerous. The gaseous diffusion plant at Oak Ridge was at one time the largest area under one roof in the world. This would be a HUGE facility. I don't remember how many centrifuges are in the plant at Oak Ridge but I don't think it's 20,00.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2006-02-14 15:37|| 2006-02-14 15:37|| Front Page Top

#11 Just for information.
The K-25 gaseous diffusion plant at Oak Ridge required 4000 stages. This plant was one-half mile long and six stories high and covered 43 acres. The production of a suitable barrier was the key to successful separation. The holes must be microscopic (approximately one-millionth of an inch in diameter) and uniform in size. The porosity must always be high to sustain high flow rates and the barrier must not react with the highly corrosive hexafluoride. Nickel and aluminum oxide were best suited for barrier materials. Diffusion equipment is large and consumes significant amounts of energy. The entire system must be leak free; no air can be allowed in and no uranium hexafluoride can be allowed out. By the spring of 1945, Oak Ridge had shipped approximately 132 lbs. of enriched uranium (approximately 90% U-235) to Los Alamos, New Mexico. This was used in "Little Boy", the bomb dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. The majority of fission weapons since that time have used plutonium. Uranium enrichment is currently used to produce fuel (3 to 4% U-235) for civilian nuclear reactors.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2006-02-14 15:43|| 2006-02-14 15:43|| Front Page Top

#12 How much electricity did the Oak Ridge plant need? Is it possible to bury that kind of generating power?

Posted by Snuns Thromp1484 2006-02-14 19:30|| 2006-02-14 19:30|| Front Page Top

#13 As far as I know the ammount of electricity used is still classified. At least, I can't find any information on it. TVA supplied the electricity to Oak Ridge. There is a generating plant just up-stream that was built for the purpose. It's hydroelectric. I must say, however, the generator supplied more than just the K-25 plant, but I don't think it's feasable to build something that big underground.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2006-02-14 19:56|| 2006-02-14 19:56|| Front Page Top

#14 Great info, DB - Thx!

Posted by .com 2006-02-14 22:49|| 2006-02-14 22:49|| Front Page Top

#15 Concur with DB. Something that enormous would produce significant MASINT...(measuring and signals intelligence). The larger the activity, the more difficult it is to effectively hide.

Posted by Besoeker 2006-02-14 22:53|| 2006-02-14 22:53|| Front Page Top

#16 and protect.....

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-02-14 22:59|| 2006-02-14 22:59|| Front Page Top

23:55 .com
23:54 Frank G
23:51 Frank G
23:41 .com
23:38 USN Ret.
23:33 Besoeker
23:26 USN Ret.
23:24 Besoeker
23:24 3dc
23:20 .com
23:16 .com
23:15 Frank G
23:13 DMFD
23:12 .com
23:10 DMFD
23:10 .com
23:06 trailing wife
23:04 Besoeker
23:02 Besoeker
22:59 Besoeker
22:59 Frank G
22:58 Besoeker
22:58 .com
22:56 DMFD