Article

2020-02-23 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Virus now shows an instance of no symptom 38 day incubation period!

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by 3dc 2020-02-23 00:00|| || Front Page|| [9 views ] Top

#1 Probably got exposed a week or two ago, and not when they thought a month ago.

Posted by Glenmore 2020-02-23 00:12|| 2020-02-23 00:12|| Front Page Top

#2 Trump furious Americans infected with coronavirus flew back to US without his permission: report

Posted by Skidmark 2020-02-23 00:51|| 2020-02-23 00:51|| Front Page Top

#3 ...saboteurs and wreckers at State at work.

Posted by Procopius2k 2020-02-23 00:54|| 2020-02-23 00:54|| Front Page Top

#4 If we have an outbreak in America, they can blame it on Trump. And deliberately botch the response, so that can be laid at his feet, too. Think of Katrina and how Bush was blamed for it.

Posted by Herb McCoy 2020-02-23 05:09|| 2020-02-23 05:09|| Front Page Top

#5 The president became "furious" with senior advisers after learning the 14 Americans who tested positive had been put on a plane with healthy passengers, according to The Washington Post. One official told the paper that the failure to inform Trump of the decision in advance of the plane's departure was a “big operational mistake.”

Fire whoever made that decision

Posted by Frank G 2020-02-23 05:48|| 2020-02-23 05:48|| Front Page Top

#6 “These individuals were moved in the most expeditious and safe manner to a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft to isolate them in accordance with standard protocol,” the State Department and Department of Health and Human Services said in a joint statement Monday.

If you knew that you weren't suppose to transport infected people why did the plane have a specialized containment area to handle all those people? Someone needs their butt shipped to Utqiagvik, AK.

Posted by Procopius2k 2020-02-23 06:17|| 2020-02-23 06:17|| Front Page Top

#7 kill far more people than it needs to.

To each according to their needs.

Posted by AlanC 2020-02-23 07:51|| 2020-02-23 07:51|| Front Page Top

#8 F*ck. Just got 24 days added to my recent 14 day quarantine after visiting Beijing. Or did I? We'll find out in the morning.d

Posted by Beau 2020-02-23 09:25|| 2020-02-23 09:25|| Front Page Top

#9 Beau, good luck. Take care of yourself.

Posted by Whiskey Mike 2020-02-23 10:05|| 2020-02-23 10:05|| Front Page Top

#10 I try for a basin next to the stool, and a bourbon hydration haze for my flu bouts, Beau.

Best wishes, but hey, reports from the field are greatly anticipated.

Posted by Skidmark 2020-02-23 10:09|| 2020-02-23 10:09|| Front Page Top

#11 That's not necessarily all bad news.

If the virus is still rapidly evolving as it adapts to humans this could be an adaption to the existing quarantine's selective pressure giving advantage to strains that work slower and cause milder symptoms.

Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2020-02-23 10:31|| 2020-02-23 10:31|| Front Page Top

#12 work slower and cause milder short term symptoms.

Host dies, bugs aren't multi-generational.
Host lives, strain passes on to the next.
For the moment I refuse to believe the bug has a designer survival strategy.

Posted by Skidmark 2020-02-23 10:38|| 2020-02-23 10:38|| Front Page Top

#13 So what is the over/under on this virus? 60,000 have it, 2,500 dead. 3.5-4% morbidity? 3DC do you have any statistics? Comparative analyses? Is it killing across the board at the same rate or higher at the older generations and the poor? I get the panic, I get the press but is this pandemic going to reduce a large number of humans or just make us all really sick for a period of time. The press is selling the end of the world and I'm not sure we are seeing it, I just cant believe anyone in any position of power now.

Posted by 49 Pan 2020-02-23 12:19|| 2020-02-23 12:19|| Front Page Top

#14 Ok, in the be careful what you ask for department. I am worried. Lots of escapes from the lab in that area. Signs that this virus has markers ties to HIV. The collector that first alerted to the issue found murdered. Surviving it the first time does not insure your good to go. Catching it a second time your antibodies attack your heart and kill you. They have 85 + incinerators on site running full time. Statistics would show a greater than 10% morbidity in the population. So if we follow the rule of misinformation, 10% is accurate, I really don't know what to think.

Posted by 49 Pan 2020-02-23 12:43|| 2020-02-23 12:43|| Front Page Top

#15 For the moment I refuse to believe the bug has a designer survival strategy.

Evolution doesn't do strategy or long term planning. Only immediate reproductive advantage counts.

Not everything is good news btw.

If fecal transmission is a relevant vector selection will favor high virulence since even a gravely ill individual will contaminate sewage and a high virus load in the excretions is the key to viral reproduction.

Ditto for transmission via arthropod vectors.

Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2020-02-23 12:45|| 2020-02-23 12:45|| Front Page Top

#16 Fecal odor is a transmission vector. That's in an article today.

Posted by 3dc 2020-02-23 13:38|| 2020-02-23 13:38|| Front Page Top

#17 So if we follow the rule of misinformation, 10% is accurate, I really don't know what to think.

Be prepared, then compose yourself to calm waiting until we have more information. If it is a worst case, Black Plague situation, it will spread until it burns itself out. Still, it is supposed to be most serious for those who are unhealthy and have high ACE-2 receptors in the deep lungs, supposedly significantly more prevalent among the Chinese than other population groups. So the odds are better for fewer strong reactions to infection here, with resulting lower morbidity.

Nontheless, collect supplies for a 28-day quarantine, including bleach and alcohol wipes, wash your hands every two hours, and don’t touch your t-zone (eyes, nose, mouth) with unwashed hands. And as much as possible, avoid airports and hospitals until further notice. Whatever the virulence of this thing, we’ll do better in the West than they are in China, simply because we are healthier and the majority of us have less susceptible genomes.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-02-23 13:40|| 2020-02-23 13:40|| Front Page Top

#18 Re: the sprays the chinese were using are similar to an Unscented Febreze. It doesn't clean the floor but takes out many airborne particles.

Posted by 3dc 2020-02-23 13:55|| 2020-02-23 13:55|| Front Page Top

#19 Chinese people are NOT more susceptible. That is nonsense.

Posted by Herb McCoy3 2020-02-23 14:21|| 2020-02-23 14:21|| Front Page Top

#20 They have lung issues in a larger population group than we do. They are still a heavy smoking population with a very heavy airborne pollution issue that does affect their overall health status and ability to fight viruses. Not a genetic issue, more an environmental issue.

Posted by 49 Pan 2020-02-23 14:46|| 2020-02-23 14:46|| Front Page Top

#21 Thanks TW. Being one of them preppers, we are set.

Posted by 49 Pan 2020-02-23 14:47|| 2020-02-23 14:47|| Front Page Top

#22 Chinese people are NOT more susceptible. That is nonsense.

Apparently Han Chinese and related peoples have a significantly higher incidence of the genetic variant that results in more ACE-2 receptors, Herb. Meaning non-Han Chinese should be less susceptible than their Han countrymen, the dreadful environmental impacts of heavily polluted air, water, and soil, and a history of poor diet and heavy smoking among the men being equal.

Posted by trailing wife 2020-02-23 14:52|| 2020-02-23 14:52|| Front Page Top

#23 "Wei Bo, ya think we'll live t'see a hundred ?"

"I'm almost there myself, Bobby."

"Wubbish. You're 47 !"

"Hell, I've felt like 99 since I was 13."

"Somethin' in our water, I reckon."

Posted by Dron66046 2020-02-23 14:58|| 2020-02-23 14:58|| Front Page Top

#24 LULZ, Dron

Posted by Frank G 2020-02-23 15:25|| 2020-02-23 15:25|| Front Page Top

#25 I really don't know what to think.

Think asiatic clusters in an anglo world dying off.

Posted by Skidmark 2020-02-23 16:51|| 2020-02-23 16:51|| Front Page Top

#26 Sadly I can't avoid flying, work. But you do what you can, not touching face, shower as soon as you get home from airport with a good hard scrubbing, sitting way in the back and waiting for the thundering herd to deplane before going. I do what I can.

Posted by Silentbrick 2020-02-23 17:28|| 2020-02-23 17:28|| Front Page Top

#27 49 Pan, try here

Posted by Mullah Richard 2020-02-23 18:00|| 2020-02-23 18:00|| Front Page Top

#28 All the Rantburgers reading this should follow Trailing Wife's advice here.

Just working out the implications of 8 dead in Iran means that those 8 people were sick for about 9 days and asymptomatic for about 5 days. Given that as best we can tell only 2% of the infected die, that means 14 days ago 400 people were infected in Iran. If they spread the infection with an R0 of 3 for only their asymptomatic days, that means about 100,000 Iranians could be infected today.

Given the Iranian interest in Syria and a known fecal transmission route, all of the Syrian refugee camps are about to light up in the next week. That is at least a million people.

Then there are the Uyghur camps and all of Africa that we have no information about.

This thing is out of the bag. It almost certainly will come to your town at least once over the next year, and you will spend a couple weeks working from home.

Prepare now, and be kind.

Posted by rammer 2020-02-23 21:57|| 2020-02-23 21:57|| Front Page Top

23:58 gorb
23:39 JohnQC
23:36 JohnQC
23:33 JohnQC
23:31 JohnQC
22:45 Seeking Cure For Ignorance
21:57 rammer
21:55 Frank G
21:42 Marilyn Tojo7566
21:40 Frank G
21:37 Marilyn Tojo7566
21:05 Seeking Cure For Ignorance
20:59 jay-dubya
20:31 trailing wife
20:23 Besoeker
20:21 John Frum
20:18 Grunter
20:04 Lex
19:56 Skidmark
19:43 CrazyFool
19:37 Lex
19:34 Lex
19:32 Lex
19:27 Lex