Article

2011-03-12 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Moon possible cause of recent earthquakes

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Posted by anon1 2011-03-12 05:56|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 So did anyone look up what happened 18 years ago, at the previous perigee? How about 36 years ago? No?

Anybody plot earthquake events compared to the moon's distance?

I didn't think so.

Posted by Bobby 2011-03-12 08:29|| 2011-03-12 08:29|| Front Page Top

#2 Even its advocates note that earthquakes don't happen during the perigee itself, but in a window of time, some days before or after it. Assuming that is say, a 30 day total window, it can be statistically compared to the group of other 20 day windows during a calendar year, which would be 35.5.

Lunar Perigee and Agogee calculator.

1993, March 8, 356529 km.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Scotts_Mills_earthquake

Which occurred in the U.S. state of Oregon on March 25, 1993, was the largest earthquake in the Pacific Northwest since the Elk Lake and Goat Rocks earthquakes of 1981.

1975, Feb 25, 356519 km

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Haicheng_earthquake

Measuring 7.3 on the Richter Scale occurred on February 4, 1975 in Haicheng, Liaoning, China. Seismologists sent out warnings about this earthquake a day before it took place and ordered evacuations. This successful prediction saved many lives. This was the first and the only successful earthquake prediction in history. In the days leading up to the event cats and other animals were thought to have acted strangely. Also snakes were reported to have been emerging from hibernation.

But again, this is *anecdotal* evidence, as earthquakes are frequent events. So correlation does not establish causation.

As an interesting note, one lunar perigee enthusiast predicted the Christchurch, NZ earthquake back in January. But the interesting part is that he is predicting *another* Christchurch earthquake in about two weeks.

Needless to say, the people of Christchurch are not too thrilled about this.

Posted by Anonymoose 2011-03-12 09:20|| 2011-03-12 09:20|| Front Page Top

#3 "Assuming that is say, a 30 day total window, it can be statistically compared to the group of other 20 day windows during a calendar year, which would be 35.5."

Assuming also that I didn't change this window fewer than three times, but without correcting the other parts of the sentence, so the end result looks screwy.

Originally I supposed a five day window, then upped it to 20 days, then 30 days. All guesswork on my part.

Posted by Anonymoose 2011-03-12 09:23|| 2011-03-12 09:23|| Front Page Top

#4 I can see a forthcoming Al Gore news conference claiming "global warming" was the cause of this quake. I can also see Jesse Jackson standing behind him. Jesse is everywhere all the time. Most likely he will be seen at the forthcoming royal wedding somewhere.

Posted by JohnQC 2011-03-12 10:05|| 2011-03-12 10:05|| Front Page Top

#5 There have already been twits blaming earthquakes on MMGW, going back to 2004.

Posted by Anonymoose 2011-03-12 11:16|| 2011-03-12 11:16|| Front Page Top

#6 So did anyone look up what happened 18 years ago, at the previous perigee? How about 36 years ago?

Why, the science is settled.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2011-03-12 13:22|| 2011-03-12 13:22|| Front Page Top

#7 The Moon does not CAUSE earthquakes; it probably does trigger some of them. Tectonic plate movement (driven by mantle convection) causes stress to build up in the crust on the boundaries between the plates. Eventually the stress builds to the point where it exceeds the strength of the rock, which ruptures suddenly as an earthquake. Small changes in the stress are caused by the tides, or even by rainstorms, and just might push the stress above the failure point of a fault zone that was almost there already - triggering the earthquake. But if the tide didn't trigger it, the normal stressing process would have done so pretty soon.
Since the stress is constantly building, the longer the time between earthquakes the more likely it is the next one will be bigger. And that once the stress is relieved by a big quake (and associated aftershocks) the less likely there will be another one in the same place anytime soon. However, the stress that is relieved by a big quake in one place ends up transferring on to another location on the fault, increasing the likelihood of a big quake there. So - there won't be another big quake in the same place in Christchurch, but there could well be one not too far away. Or not - depends on when the last one was there.

Posted by Glenmore 2011-03-12 15:10|| 2011-03-12 15:10|| Front Page Top

#8 There have already been twits blaming earthquakes on MMGW, going back to 2004.

Of course that's already started. You expected anything else?
Can't wait for Danny Glover to weigh in from Cooba. Or Kneeahrahwah...

Posted by tu3031 2011-03-12 15:21|| 2011-03-12 15:21|| Front Page Top

#9 Kneeahrahwah

I had to sound it out to figure what you were referring to. Danny G's BFF is Hoogo, though Danny O is still his facebook friend

Posted by Frank G 2011-03-12 15:57|| 2011-03-12 15:57|| Front Page Top

#10 Anybody mention us yet?

Posted by Halliburton: Earthquake/Tsunami Division 2011-03-12 16:08|| 2011-03-12 16:08|| Front Page Top

#11 And, again, right on cue...

Posted by tu3031 2011-03-12 16:19|| 2011-03-12 16:19|| Front Page Top

#12 Just out of idle curiosity, #11 tu - has anyone asked those clowns how many strong earthquakes Europe experiences?

Didn't think so....

Posted by Barbara Skolaut 2011-03-12 18:24|| 2011-03-12 18:24|| Front Page Top

#13 Lisbon's due.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2011-03-12 18:36|| 2011-03-12 18:36|| Front Page Top

#14 Hello Burgers and Bergets. I call this activity the flocking effect "more cause for alarm about the extent of human paranoia than any sort of impending apocalypse". Much more complex than the moon alone. The increased volcanic activity is a signal of things to come. Mass die offs of smaller lifeforms bees, birds, and fish. Merely things to ponder. We are just along for the ride.

Posted by Dale 2011-03-12 20:35|| 2011-03-12 20:35|| Front Page Top

#15 Interesting, Glenmore and Anonymoose, thanks for that. Really interesting!

Posted by anon1 2011-03-12 23:18|| 2011-03-12 23:18|| Front Page Top

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