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2004-04-25 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-04-25 1:51:59 AM|| || Front Page|| [7 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Anybody have a solution regarding Iran. It's always been the tough nut for me.

But Iran is the elephant.

Posted by Lucky 2004-04-25 2:11:39 AM|| 2004-04-25 2:11:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 As I remember, Reagan had us destroy their entire navy as an object lesson. In this case I would think that we have thoroughly debriefed all of Sadaam's stooge Iranians about where the infiltrators and AQ personnel might be staging.

Posted by Super Hose 2004-04-25 2:47:48 AM|| 2004-04-25 2:47:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 I take it the Iranians are intending to bring together the politicised clerics, al Sadr's followers, Hezbollah/Hamas and Al Dawa in one Shi'ite movement calling for the rule of Ayatollah Haeri, supported by all those nice propaganda outlets they have set up?

Or will they continue to leave these different groups alone as part of a divide an rule policy.

Posted by Paul Moloney 2004-04-25 3:58:26 AM|| 2004-04-25 3:58:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Why aren't we funding the revolutionary movement in Iran? It does have one and with some outside support could become much stronger. There are also a substantial number of Kurds in Iran. Given finacial and military (equipment only) they would probably give the Mad Mullahs a real headache.
A bit of this should have them too busy to worry about Iraq.
It would be fairly easy to implement.

Posted by Michael 2004-04-25 5:55:49 AM|| 2004-04-25 5:55:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 The scary thing is that Tom Clancy called this one at least five, six years ago in Executive Orders, which I don't have on my bookshelf at college so I don't remember exactly when it was published.

In the book, an Iranian mole assassinated the *unnamed* Iraqi President, nicknamed "The Mustache." In the chaos that followed, as the generals were scrambing to protect themselves, Iran stepped in with social services and such, and eventually the two merged into a "United Islamic Republic."

Only difference today is that they're having to move a lot more quietly thanks to our presence there, but the similarities in many cases are striking and scary. Wonder if employing "The Ryan Doctrine" of dropping precision-guided bombs on our enemies would work . . .

Posted by The Doctor 2004-04-25 9:35:40 AM|| 2004-04-25 9:35:40 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Only if we employ more John Clarks

Posted by Frank G 2004-04-25 10:10:28 AM|| 2004-04-25 10:10:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Now imagine the same scenario, but with the Black Hats having nukes.

Posted by Matt 2004-04-25 11:30:21 AM|| 2004-04-25 11:30:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Matt-
Let me point out that whether or not the Black Hats have nukes, they're going to do this anyways. They think that once they have one weapon - which took decades to build - we will quail in fear and allow them a free hand.
All it really does isprove how badly they understand the lessons of the last sixty years or so, and how restricted their view of the world is (Most have never been more than a short journey from their home towns before going to Teheran or Qom). They think that if we never vaporized the USSR, we won't do it to them either. They think that we will not go to war for Israel. They think that a nuclear strike is an E-ticket to Paradise and the 72 Virgin Raisins(TM).
They're wrong on all counts. First, the Soviets just never pissed us off that badly. Secondly, when it comes down to it, it's not the American people who will go to war for Israel - it's the President of the United States.
Third - and most importantly - there is no real Iran. It's a bunch of provinces and tribal areas that share a common religion. If we cut Teheran out - a city where like most 3rd world thugocracies, ALL the communications and ALL the bureaucracy run through a single set of government buildings - there IS no Iran. You'll have a bunch of surviving Black hats run to Qom (the 2,89,546th holiest site in Islam), but they have no way to command anything there...and they KNOW it. That's why they stay in Teheran - because that's where the power is and if they lose it, it's over. Look what happened when Baghdad went down.
A 'Ryan Doctrine ' strike wouldn't bring a nuclear response, assuming they had a deliverable weapon- if anything, it might bring about the Revolution.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2004-04-25 12:08:25 PM|| 2004-04-25 12:08:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Mike, Good post. To me the perplexing issues arise out of the timing and sequence of events when you factor in election year politics. (Of course, it is arguable that election year politics shouldn't be factored in at all. The strength of that argument depends on whether you think that Kerry is electable and what he would actually do if he were elected, as opposed to his campaign rhetoric. I personally think that Kerry can beat Bush in the right circumstances, and that as a war president Kerry would be close to a disaster. Both those points are debatable.)

Factoring in election year politics, here are a couple of imaginable scenarios.

1- We do nothing until November. This "plays it safe" on the political side, but takes the risk that the Iranian offensive in Iraq cannot be contained and/or that the Iranian nuke program reaches fruition.

2- We go full speed ahead now. Take out the Telephone Building in Tehran, give the Iranian dissidents some muscle, crush their stooges in Iraq. Very positive strategically, but could put Kerry in the White House.

3- We play it halfway and assume that Bush has the political breathing room for one limited offensive move. In that scenario, the question I would ask you is whether taking out the Iranian nuke program is feasible, or in other words, can we pull off an Osirak? It would be much easier to justify this politically than it would be to justify an attack on Tehran. Or better yet, can the Isrealis with their extended-range F-16's pull off an Osirak for us?

Posted by Matt 2004-04-25 12:56:52 PM|| 2004-04-25 12:56:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 What "covert" action? There's nothing covert about what those Islamonazi asshats are doing, except in the mind of the "news" media.

Posted by Barbara Skolaut 2004-04-25 3:31:21 PM|| 2004-04-25 3:31:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 They think that if we never vaporized the USSR, we won't do it to them either.

I think this is a key point. But from 9-11 to now, the American population - as well as the free world - has come to understand the kamakazi nature of the Islamists. I just posted about this on another thread and I strongly believe that we now better understand our enemy than we did before. They only understand strength. Truces, words, agreements are meaningless. Anything short of MAKING them comply is not understood by them.

We understand that now - we didn't before this war began. As everyone starts to grasp this, it makes it easier for us to act with the understanding of the American public....just like Israel's current hit lists are understood.

As for Kerry - I agree, he has a chance, if the dead come out in force, which they might. You raised some interesting questions, that I'm sure Bush lays awake at night pondering.

Posted by B 2004-04-25 3:47:07 PM|| 2004-04-25 3:47:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Anybody have a solution regarding Iran. It's always been the tough nut for me.

Yes..Judicious Application of Tactical Nukes. :)

As the saying goes "There are few problems in this world that cannot be solved with the judicious applications of high explosives."

Posted by Valentine 2004-04-25 5:58:07 PM|| 2004-04-25 5:58:07 PM|| Front Page Top

11:44 raptor
07:59 Igs
07:12 B
07:09 B
02:35 Lucky
02:21 SON OF TOLUI
00:23 Anonymous4555
23:55 Laurence of the Rats
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