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2006-06-05 Africa Horn

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Posted by Dan Darling 2006-06-05 00:37|| || Front Page|| [11133 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 If US and the west has to fight radical Islamists in Somalia, they have the warlord alliance to do it for them. The biggest mistake US is doing is to let the warlord alliance to loose. I do not understand who the stupid is allowing any victory to the radical Islamists in Somalia.

Posted by Annon 2006-06-05 02:26|| 2006-06-05 02:26|| Front Page Top

#2 The open US involvement against the Islamic courts looks to be a late addition to the game. Aweys declared war on the Somali government back in October and he was calling for jihad as early as last March. By taking Balad he has shown himself a force to be reckoned with, incidentally, by taking one of the new government minister's strongholds and sending him fleeing for safety.

My guess is that the US saw Aweys building up fighters in Mogadishu (he blew $50,000 on "armored vehicles" earlier this month, which means he isn't hurting for cash) and tried to stop him as quickly as possible without sending our own troops in, which means backing the resident warlords.

Bottom line is that al-Qaeda fighters and their allies are simply speaking better than your average Third World warlord or thug. Their fighters are better trained, better motivated, and almost certainly better paid, which translates to victory for the bad guys in a place like Somalia. One of the whole goals of General Wald's Pan-Sahel Initiative besides getting el-Para was to train elite units of African militaries to the point where they could trade punches with the GSPC without serious US backing. Keep in mind that even the PUK, whose militia I have enormous respect for, was unable to beat the relatively smaller Ansar al-Islam after more than 2 years of back-and-forth fighting. Hell, the PKK is still a serious security threat to a country with as modern and professional an army as Turkey. The Mogadishu warlords and their allies in the transitional allies are fairly easy pickings by comparison so Aweys is going to eat 'em for breakfast at the behest of his al-Qaeda masters.

If you want someone to stop him, the militias of Somaliland and Puntland are probably the best bet, followed by the Ethiopian army. Just my $0.02 on the situation.

Posted by Dan Darling">Dan Darling 2006-06-05 02:44|| http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]">[http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com] 2006-06-05 02:44|| Front Page Top

#3 Excellent insight, Dan. Thanks for the analysis.

Posted by Scooter McGruder 2006-06-05 03:43|| 2006-06-05 03:43|| Front Page Top

#4 If the people there want their squalid little Islamic Court, let them have it. Next news you'll hear is "no women outside without burkas", "no music, dancing, fun of any kind", "death penalty for spitting on the sidewalk", they usual extreme Taliban type stuff. Have fun in Somalia guys.

You'll be sorrrrrrrry!

Posted by bigjim-ky 2006-06-05 07:42|| 2006-06-05 07:42|| Front Page Top

#5 Outstanding but scary comment, Dan, because it raises the spectre of the US having to put some troops in to stop the bad guys.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2006-06-05 09:50|| 2006-06-05 09:50|| Front Page Top

#6 Special forces have the primary role here in bringing together a cohesive force to counter the fascists. More like initial work in Afganistan.

Posted by Captain America 2006-06-05 10:01|| 2006-06-05 10:01|| Front Page Top

#7 Unfortunately, the Somalia situation, like Afghanistan just before the Taliban gained power, is more ambiguous than Good Guys and Bad Guys; it's more like Bad Guys and Worse Guys. In Afghanistan after the Soviets were defeated the warlords ran rampant, killing and looting and playing their little wargames without worrying about how many civilians were blown up when they shelled Kabul. Thinking of the warlords in those days as Good Guys would have meant thinking of Hek and his ilk as a good guy. From a local citizen perspective, without our knowledge of the larger forces and principles involved, it would have been rational to look at the Taliban, before it took power, as the good guys who would lessen corruption and supply some semblance of order. Likewise, in Somalia, the warlords are the ones who stole international food aid shipments and murdered anyone who got in their way. Remember why we were at odds with Adid in the first place. Being associated with the warlords in local civilians' minds has risks as well as benefits. I'm not suggesting policy changes here -- there's not a lot of choice in picking which horse to back. It's just that, to the best of my knowledge, we haven't yet found or developed a leader with the qualities of a Masood.

Posted by Odysseus 2006-06-05 10:15|| 2006-06-05 10:15|| Front Page Top

#8 Troops on the ground aren't necessarily the only option, Steve, as I noted there are still two other militias of note before things get to that point. One problem that we should factor in is that most of the US aid to the Mogadishu warlords came in the form of cash, surveillance, and a handful of advisors rather than training, weapons, or perhaps even air support. The more territory these courts take, the more attractive that last option is going to become.

Posted by Dan Darling">Dan Darling 2006-06-05 12:18|| http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]">[http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com] 2006-06-05 12:18|| Front Page Top

#9 BOTTOM LINE SAUDIS ARE FUNDING THE ISLAMIC TROUBLES WORLDWIDE!!!!DOES BUSH NOT REALISE THIS????

Posted by Cheregum Crelet7867 2006-06-05 12:27|| 2006-06-05 12:27|| Front Page Top

#10 I dunno Dan.

Folks here were having a high old time laughing at the TNG and the UN support for it. Well we went and supported the warlords, at whatever cost in multilateralism/hearts and minds, and now we have nothing to show for it. Zip. Nada. Maybe, just maybe, a different approach, working with the TNG might work better?

I wonder if Puntland and Somaliland are even interested in going after Mogadishu, since they want independence (I think). As for Ethiopia, theyve got their hands full with Eritrea. And I dont see that theyd go to war to pull our irons out of the fire. As long as the Islamists have the minimal sense not to directly challenge Ethiopian interests.

I dont think any options look to good. We just might be pushed into negotiating with the Islamists, to leave them alone as long as they dont support AQ. The deal we offered the Taliban along time ago, and are currently offering Hamas. Im not saying thats a great option (i dont know enough about the Somali warlords) but we have alot on our plate right now.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-06-05 16:41|| 2006-06-05 16:41|| Front Page Top

#11 Good points, LH. The Punts and the Somalialandis (eesh), I think, would happily write off the rest of the country on condition they could have their independence. The only way the Ethiopians would come in is if they could grab the disputed desert areas (just like them, too, to fight with two different neighbors over two different piles of sand and rock).

I'd voted for a bigger bowl of popcorn, but the Islamicists who are currently winning are gonna be trouble for us, no doubt.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2006-06-05 16:45|| 2006-06-05 16:45|| Front Page Top

#12 "The Punts and the Somalialandis (eesh), I think, would happily write off the rest of the country on condition they could have their independence"

Think Kurdistan, except not landlocked, and without Turkey breathing down its neck. Would they grab Baghdad? Dont think so.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-06-05 17:31|| 2006-06-05 17:31|| Front Page Top

#13 BOTTOM LINE SAUDIS ARE FUNDING THE ISLAMIC TROUBLES WORLDWIDE!!!!DOES BUSH NOT REALISE THIS????

I can't imagine the president is unaware, Cheregum Crelet7867 dear, but before he takes on the Princelings directly he MUST stabilize the oil situation, else the entire energy-using part of the world (ie pretty much all the countries on planet Earth) will head straight into a major economic depression when the supply is cut off. Upon which the entire world will blame the U.S., and immediately start to work as hard as ever they can to undermine our effort. We could fight a war against the entire world, but we'd best be prepared to move the entire country off-planet immediately thereafter.

Oh, and be a dear, and please don't shout so. It hurts my eyes. Thanks!

Posted by trailing wife 2006-06-05 18:38|| 2006-06-05 18:38|| Front Page Top

#14 What about the Kenyans?

If I were a Christian Kenyan the prospects of an Islamic Somalia coupled with the indigenous jihadis would be troublesome.

Posted by DanNY 2006-06-05 19:51|| 2006-06-05 19:51|| Front Page Top

#15 Unfortunately, the Kenyan Government is corrupt and dominated by socialists. And it has a lot of Muhammeds in the upper levels too, kind of makes it hard to do much cracking down. Besides which, cracking down on Somalia would kill the khat trade, which pays for those nice houses that so many Kenyan government officials live in.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2006-06-05 22:31|| 2006-06-05 22:31|| Front Page Top

16:26 Scooter McGruder
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