Article

2004-06-17 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Steve 2004-06-17 12:49:36 PM|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Can someone tell me again how not cleaning this cesspool out wasn't a setback?

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-06-17 1:06:28 PM|| 2004-06-17 1:06:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 It's a mystery to me, B-A-R. What can we expect?
HEADLINE-Zarqawi statue soon to be erected in Falluja, complete with public altar for weekly human sacrifices...

Posted by jules 187 2004-06-17 1:15:34 PM|| 2004-06-17 1:15:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Lots of furriners in the muj mix....it will be interesting to see what the locals do - or not do.

Posted by Rex Mundi 2004-06-17 1:28:45 PM|| 2004-06-17 1:28:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 ...Actually, think about it for a moment...if this is true, then eventually Zarqawi will stick his head up. He can't keep his mouth shut any more than his late boss could, and he wants to be the Lord High F**king Executioner And Shadow Of Allah On The Earth even worse than his boss did.
He won't be able to resist the temptation to eventually come out and declare himself in charge...and when he does, it's over.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2004-06-17 1:37:11 PM|| 2004-06-17 1:37:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 I don't accept this report at face value. However, if it were true it would, IMHO, be good news. It would mean the bad guys (Sunni division) were on the way to sequestering themselves. Of course it would be, temporarily, bad news for decent people living in Fallujah.

Posted by mhw 2004-06-17 1:38:34 PM|| 2004-06-17 1:38:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Bomb-a-rama. Cleaning out the cesspool would have meant a lot of dead Americans. Cleaning out the cesspool would have meant a lot of dead Iraqi civilans.

Its much better wait, allow the fanatics to really piss of the locals. We might find the locals turn on them. If not we wait until after the Iraqi Council has taken power and can take responsibility and hopefully take the casualties themselves while we provide Forward Air Controllers. If they still haven't come around by the time the American elections are over we stop worrying about Iraqi civilian casualties and do what has to be done.

Posted by yank 2004-06-17 1:40:00 PM|| [politicaljunky.blogspot.com] 2004-06-17 1:40:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 I wouldn't hold my breath. Sammy was around for 30 years, none of them peaceful.

Posted by Fred 2004-06-17 1:46:22 PM|| 2004-06-17 1:46:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Another vote here as a good thing. Zarqawi will be a goner

Posted by Frank G 2004-06-17 2:02:46 PM|| 2004-06-17 2:02:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Cleaning out the cesspool would have meant a lot of dead Americans.

Thing is, it would've been Marines that would be doing the cleaning, and I would suspect that there would be much more dead "mujahedin" than dead Marines. And dead Iraqi civilians, well what does one say about that? Sure, there's going to be some, but the alternative is what is happening now, where the fanatics are strengthening their hold on Fallujah, possibly requiring an even more bloodier battle later on to clean out. Seems to me that it would have been better to do the job while it was relatively easy, instead of after a lull when the enemy has had time to shore up their defenses, sneak in recruits, and stockpile ammo and other necessities.

If they still haven't come around by the time the American elections are over we stop worrying about Iraqi civilian casualties and do what has to be done.

Depends on who's in charge. If there is a change of hands in D.C. in November, then the likelihood of an offensive to clean up the Fallujah cesspool decreases dramatically, and the chance to send a message AND get the job done will have been needlessly pissed away. I mean, can you imagine Kerry giving the green light to a plan to assault and retake Fallujah? I don't.

Sometimes, some things have to be done, possible political consequences be damned. I believe this whole Fallujah episode falls right into that category.

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-06-17 2:25:02 PM|| 2004-06-17 2:25:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Rex / All - I think the answer to that is easy: either a cooperative 'nothing' or actively 'join the jihadi cause'. Nothing else makes sense to them in their situation.

[rant]
Digression:
Arab society is status-based. Wherever your family / clan / tribe stands defines your "slot" - period. Somebody, some strong-man, is at the top. If he's overthrown, it matters most to the guys at the top, of course, everyone beneath will just realign and make the needed alliances -- or fall to the end of the line.

From below, you can say that it makes no difference - all strong-men look alike. You take your marching orders and you kow-tow - or your family / clan / tribe suffers.

So Zarqawi and ilk, apparent strong-men relative to the locals because of funding, arms, ferocity, etc. have moved in at the top of the food chain. The locals will do what they're told. And, of course, enthusiasm and loyalty to whomever is in power is what's rewarded - anything less than 100% cooperation is punished.

Promises of some future civil society -- which they've never known before and don't have any appreciation for must sound like pure bullshit to them -- are not worth warm spit. Fight the strong-men? Are you Americans crazy? They'll slaughter my family/clan/tribe (and they would, too - they're doing it right now to everyone who cooperates with the Coalition). Hey, tell you what - I'll switch sides one minute after you kill the last one.

Digression:
People have asked, rhetorically, if Arabs can handle Western-style secular democracy. The question isn't stupid or irrelevant. Ask Attaturk how easy it was. I think the Arab Society is less 'sophisticated' than what he was faced with changing. Arabs will have to un-learn what they know now to even really begin. All of those automatic responses which serve well them in Arab Society may no longer be appropriate - it will be like all of them being told they have to stop smoking - many will fail, most will struggle, and only a few will make it easily.

In truth, the reason the Baghdad politicians and local town politicians intervened is pretty simple - even they don't "get it" and can't see the forest for the trees. All this touchy-feely civilized BS is unreal to them. I saw it in Saudi when guys who had been to the West on assignment came back - immediately they reverted to the local system because it gave them back their status. In America or the UK they were seen as arrogant and backward - because they were. Now, back in the bosom of Arab Society, they could act as they had been raised and re-enter their comfort zone. The exceptions, the ones who understand that in exchange for their status they received freedom - and were not frightened by it, hell - you can count them on your available fingers. For the vast majority, it takes a long time to overcome the indoctrination, if ever.

Do we want Fallujah to become a 'civilized' place? Then we'll have to apply enough raw force, enough power, to defeat (that means kill or capture) the strong-men, thus removing the threat to Joe Average, his family / clan / tribe, and then demonstrate that we are now the strong-men. Once we do this, then we can issue a new set of rules - this is how it works from now on. Anything less and you only create confusions and a power vacuum - which will eventually be filled with another strong-man operating under the old rules they understand.

Power.

I beg someone to describe another way -- that fits within the framework of reality.
[/rant]

Posted by .com 2004-06-17 2:38:59 PM|| 2004-06-17 2:38:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Bomb, I'm not entirely in disagreement with you. If Belmont Club's analysis was correct we had the bad guys boxed into a corner of Fallujiah so civilian casualites would have been minimized if we just blew it apart from the air. The message would have been very strong to the arseholes of the world.

Still, it would have complicated the political situation and its an option we can still return to if things don't go well.

Posted by yank 2004-06-17 3:11:55 PM|| [politicaljunky.blogspot.com] 2004-06-17 3:11:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Dammit .com yer makin' it tough to be optimistic. It does present an opportunity - there's a lot of fish in that barrel. We won't have to run all over the place to hunt them down. Unfortunately, I fear the beaurocrats aren't about to relinqusih control of the situation and they lack the spine to see this thing through properly if we are to truly prevail.

Posted by Rex Mundi 2004-06-17 3:14:28 PM|| 2004-06-17 3:14:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 I've seen some really beautiful posts. Clever, articulate, dazzling, downright pretty - but based upon the poster's world view. His values. His language. His foibles. His culture. His blind spots. His sense of right, wrong. Useless.

The hard truth is simple: unless forcibly imposed, the Western world view does not apply. Anything that fails to make sense in the Arab world view is just jerking off. A lot of that going around, methinks.

Your concerns are spot-on. I recall a good example from the Clinton Admin when he was going to visit China. One of his big advisors in the advance team met with a Chinese dissident the week before he was to go. Doesn't matter why he did it - it caused the Chinese to lose face and they cancelled the whole thing. To the Clinton Admin and the vaunted State Dept, understanding the Chinese was the same as the kid they knew in HS named Wong. "Epicanthic fold? Check! Funny name? Check! Get along with him? Check! Okay, we understand 'Chinese' people, let's go!" Uh, not exactly...

Posted by .com 2004-06-17 3:58:47 PM|| 2004-06-17 3:58:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Arab society is status-based. Wherever your family / clan / tribe stands defines your "slot" - period. Somebody, some strong-man, is at the top. If he's overthrown, it matters most to the guys at the top, of course, everyone beneath will just realign and make the needed alliances -- or fall to the end of the line.

Damn fine and insightful rant... I'm made to remember a jingle by somewhere here... Fred?

Every man must plan and plan to protect his clan has best he can.

Posted by Shipman 2004-06-17 4:14:03 PM|| 2004-06-17 4:14:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Do they understand ass-whoop? Its time send in a few of the marines to wipe the floor with al Zaqwari's ass and then whoop it for not gettin in the corners.

Posted by Hank 2004-06-17 5:34:24 PM|| 2004-06-17 5:34:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Hank may be on to something. Falujah is a festering wound, and al Zarqawi just deepens the infection. I would have stated Hank's idea a little differently, but the basic concept is correct. Sooner or later, Marines will have to go back and bring some justice.

Posted by Sam 2004-06-17 5:56:30 PM|| 2004-06-17 5:56:30 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 Wasn't I articulate and dazzling?

Posted by Hank 2004-06-17 6:10:21 PM|| 2004-06-17 6:10:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Indeed Hank, way good. So getting enough rain?

Posted by Shipman 2004-06-17 7:53:03 PM|| 2004-06-17 7:53:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 Work has consumed most of my time this week. What happened to the Fallujah Brigade and their Saddam lookalike general? Were they slaughtered? Did they all go over to the enemy? Did they run away? Were they abducted by aliens? I thought that the reason for pulling the Marine snipers back from the perimeter was so that this Sunni Godsend and his Muslim Horde could clear out the bad guys! If this article is accurate it is time to progressively tighten the perimeter and let the snipers cull the herd.

Posted by RWV 2004-06-17 9:36:37 PM|| 2004-06-17 9:36:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 Great thread. The pecking order sure seems like a "make it up as you go along" solution. Primitive at its core. If it is true and ZQ has visions of grandee with a purple robe, he's meat. ZQ is to smart I think.

Dot, solid as always. In my gut, knowing nothing, it all rings true!

Posted by Lucky 2004-06-17 10:38:30 PM|| 2004-06-17 10:38:30 PM|| Front Page Top

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