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2006-08-12 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

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Posted by RD 2006-08-12 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11129 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 "Peace in our time!"

The consequences will be far worse this time. The enemy didn't manage to develop nukes during WW II.

Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2006-08-12 00:39|| 2006-08-12 00:39|| Front Page Top

#2 But I predict Hezbollah will reject it, so .... CHARGE!

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-08-12 00:50|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-08-12 00:50|| Front Page Top

#3 Olmert Lamont after impressive stupidity and incometence will try save his reputation by making peace. This is the Peace Now people running a military.

Posted by SamAdamsky 2006-08-12 01:09|| 2006-08-12 01:09|| Front Page Top

#4 Guys, Im curious. Ive been following the blogg for sometime. Most on this site support Israel's campaign in Lebanon, but generally (very) critical of Olmert who is trying to portray himself as a strong and legitimate Sharon alternative. Why such strong sentiments? What did I miss?

PS Happy holiday Fred.

Posted by Spens Thaper9292 2006-08-12 01:16|| 2006-08-12 01:16|| Front Page Top

#5 ST 9292, if you've been following this site and recent events, then it should be obvious why the strong sentiments - so just say what's really on your mind.

Posted by Rex Mundi 2006-08-12 01:40|| 2006-08-12 01:40|| Front Page Top

#6 Why we pissed at Olmert because he started a war then stopped. When you start a war you get rid of your enemy. When the US went into Afgan Taliban lost power, Iraq Saddam found in a hidey hole. See the diffrence.

Posted by djohn66 2006-08-12 01:59|| 2006-08-12 01:59|| Front Page Top

#7 Actually this hasn't been so bad. Hezbollah in the past has kidnapped Israelis. Israel's reaction has been to lob a few shells across the border and negotiate an exchange of prisoners.

This time Hezbollah got one heck of a bloody nose. Their Beirut infrastructure was demolished, they took some serious hits in Bekaa, and much of the prepared positions, bunkers, tunnels, and weapons caches were destroyed in the border villages. AND, when it all stops, Hezbollah finds the Lebanese army and a beefier UN force with a stronger mandate in place right in their heartland.

Anyone who trys to portray this as ANY kind of a Hezbollah victory is just playing politics because when you look at the real physical situation on the ground, Hezbollah has lost much.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-08-12 02:15|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-08-12 02:15|| Front Page Top

#8 Crosspatch: they still have the kidnapped soldiers, though. Disgraceful that not even this fig leaf was included.

Posted by JSU 2006-08-12 02:31|| 2006-08-12 02:31|| Front Page Top

#9 By the ceasefire deal, Hezbully has been legitimized. It has been adressed as if it were a country, not a terrorist org. The repercussions of this unfortunate stupidity will be felt for a long time. Crosspatch, scroll down to a post called Crystal Ball to see what's in store in the near future. Beyond that see the opinion of Walid Phares in Iran Poised To Be 'Mother of All World Threats'

Posted by twobyfour 2006-08-12 02:38|| 2006-08-12 02:38|| Front Page Top

#10 I agree the Israeli political leadership has been surprisingly irresolute... and the cost has been much higher than it should've been because of it.

Fact: it all pivots on Iran.

I would not be surprised to find that, after Olmert's poor performance became apparent, the US decided to share some strategic plans and told them to back off and take the deal. After all, the little sideplay going on in Lebanon with Hezbollah is only a symptom, not the real problem.

It is a waste of good people to fight a proxy with an endless supply chain and complicit international cover.

The real issue is the Iranian regime. And I believe it is forfeit.

Posted by flyover 2006-08-12 02:58|| 2006-08-12 02:58|| Front Page Top

#11 I disagree that Hezbollah has been legitimized. They are not a party to the agreement. In fact, they are only referenced where it is stated they must ceasefire and move above the Litani. The agreement allows Israel to continue operations as long as Hezbollah continues to fight. Even if Israel accepts the agreement, should Hezbollah continue fighting, Israel is not obligated to do a thing, they may continue the fight until Hezbollah is defeated or submits to the terms.

It is a clear defeat for Hezbollah.

"they still have the kidnapped soldiers, though."

It is my understanding that the issue of the kidnapped soldiers will be addressed in another resolution once combat operations have ceased.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-08-12 03:00|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-08-12 03:00|| Front Page Top

#12 Vrospatch, you need to see this from the viewpopint of Middle-East. As far as Hezbollah is concerned--a stunning victory, for in their perverted culture, if you're alive at the end of the fight, you can claim victory.

But not only that. Being degraded only marginally. Hezbollah still remains a powerfull force within the Lebanon context. They will milk that factor as much as they can and get on with their "settling of scores" until they achieve supremacy.

Ahmadinutjob is laughing, meanwhile. He did not need to lift a finger and everything lines up to his advantage.

Posted by twobyfour 2006-08-12 03:18|| 2006-08-12 03:18|| Front Page Top

#13 PIMF, I apologize for butchering your nick, Crosspatch.

Posted by twobyfour 2006-08-12 03:19|| 2006-08-12 03:19|| Front Page Top

#14 I disagree that it is a "stunning victory" and isn't even being seen as such in the Middle East. In fact, they are looking at it with apparently quite a bit of sarcasm. Such as ... if Hezbollah is being so victorious, why call for a ceasefire? Why not, if Hezbollah is giving the IDF such a licking, simply continue fighting until the IDF is destroyed? In other words, even Arab commentators are making fun of Hezbollah.

Don't believe that just because the news media says anything short of an absolute destruction of Hezbollah is a victory that it means that is really so. There are quite a lot of people in the region that see it for what it is. Israel was being restrained in order to get a fundamental change in the situation on the ground. That is the overall goal. The idea is to weaken Hezbollah. Sure, if they are not absolutely broken, they will claim some kind of victory, but as the days and weeks go by and the toll of the hammering their infrastructure took becomes felt, they will be increasingly seen to be in a weaker position.

Christian, Druze, and Sunni factions have not taken this hammering, nor has the Lebanese army. So Hezbollah has been weakend physically in relation to these other elements. They have been set back. They have defended Lebanon not one bit. Israel was able to do exactly what they wanted to do whenever they wanted to do it. As I type this, the IDF is on a mad rush all the way to the Litani. They will probably be there within 24 hours or less ... they might even be there now. Reporters on the border say they have seen more helicopters cross the border just tonite than in the entire duration of the war combined. The IDF is putting troops deep inside Lebanon tonite.

Any "victory" for Hezbollah will ring hollow in reality.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-08-12 03:33|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-08-12 03:33|| Front Page Top

#15 To put it another way, Hezbollah has defined "victory" the same way the Black Knight defined it in that Monty Python movie. After having both arms, both legs and finally his head chopped off, the Black Knight responds with "I'll bite you!". And such is the "victory" of Nasrallah.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-08-12 03:58|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-08-12 03:58|| Front Page Top

#16 Crospatch, heard about some activity around Northern Border. One hopes it is not too little too late.

But as the degradation of the HA forward force goes, the estimate is about 300 (so far). That takes down the original ~ 6000 to about 5700. That may be a palm and a far cry from Black Knight dismemberment. They have enough resources left to pull off an internal coup d'etat with their 10,000 strong reserve. They don't need rocket launchers for that.

Posted by twobyfour 2006-08-12 04:32|| 2006-08-12 04:32|| Front Page Top

#17 Well, thinking... depending how well IDF covers the SL area in the next 24 hrs... HA may get cocky and as they say, shiite may hit the fan... the Black Knight scenario may be closer to the original.

One thing would be, though, a spectacular success, if IDF gets Nasrallah dead or alive. Next 30 days.

Posted by twobyfour 2006-08-12 04:43|| 2006-08-12 04:43|| Front Page Top

#18 "But as the degradation of the HA forward force goes, the estimate is about 300 (so far). "

I believe that estimate is VERY low. We might never know the true count. Hezbollah is never going to want the true extent of the casualties to be known. That 300 (and I have heard higher counts, the IDF themselves having handled over 400 dead Hezbollah fighters) is what they are willing to admit. They would be taking whatever bodies they can off the battlefield. Where they can, portraying them as civilian killed. In many cases, probably simply burying them where they can. I would pay more attention to reports of large numbers of missing Lebanese shiite men after this is over. Israel can't toss this much ordinance into there and have this many firefights for a month and only kill 10 people per day. They couldn't do that if they TRIED to miss.

The numbers are bogus.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-08-12 05:45|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-08-12 05:45|| Front Page Top

#19 In other words, this notion that they can bomb and have troops engaged in direct combat that that amount of artillery fire for a month and kill 600 civilians and only 300 Hezbollah is silly on the face of it. Anyone putting any stock in that number is seriously gullable and that is being charitable.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-08-12 05:49|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-08-12 05:49|| Front Page Top

#20 Crosspatch, you may well be right, but this is the Middle East. Anything less than a complete defeat for Hizbollocks will be portrayed by them as a victory.

In the Middle East perception is more important than substance. This may not be the first war Israel lost, but it may well be the first it didn't win and that in the Arab mind means they are closer to destroying Israel.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-08-12 06:19|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-08-12 06:19|| Front Page Top

#21 One thing would be, though, a spectacular success, if IDF gets Nasrallah dead or alive. Next 30 days.

Yep, that would change the perception of who won instantly. Hope the IDF is working on it.

Posted by 6 2006-08-12 06:21|| 2006-08-12 06:21|| Front Page Top

#22 If saddam was able to present his 1991 defeat as a victory for having survived american onslaught, then I can't see hizballah not receiving an huge boost from this whole mess (assuming there is not a dramatic change, like nasrallah being helizapped, true, or the idf cleaning the bekaa), regardless of the actual results on the battlefield. If iran wishes to get the leadership of the whole jihadist/anti-western movement over the sunnis, a perceived victory of the hizballah over the "zionists" is a big plus, despite whatever perception the arab regimes might have, it's the Masses(Tm) and the radicals who matter.

Still, Amir Taheri thought differently, but Wxjames has a point too.

Posted by anonymous5089 2006-08-12 06:30|| 2006-08-12 06:30|| Front Page Top

#23 Hizb'allah will claim victory anything short of hunting them all down and executing them. It's not like the Tyre Times will contradict Hizb and live. When fighting muslims, the west must show irrefutable gains. That means taking land and women captives. Anything less will not register in the muslim mind.

Posted by ed 2006-08-12 07:16|| 2006-08-12 07:16|| Front Page Top

#24 Agreement is a prelude to a larger and nastier war in the near future.

Posted by JohnQC 2006-08-12 08:35|| 2006-08-12 08:35|| Front Page Top

#25 Hell, Saddam's still claiming victory and asserting he's still in charge. Arab/Muzzie words should be taken as lies from the second they leave their lips. Who cares what they claim?

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-08-12 09:32|| 2006-08-12 09:32|| Front Page Top

#26 Israel's defeat happened back when Olmert was elected PM. The mis-events of the last month are just the other, and inevitable, shoe dropping. May the Israelis not repeat their mistake.

Posted by Omatch Whetch1604 2006-08-12 09:49|| 2006-08-12 09:49|| Front Page Top

#27 I'm hoping the IDF will carry on the infantry drive to the Litani even after the cabinet has accepted the UN resolution, which does not call for an immediate end to hostilities anyway. It looks like the Israelis have worked out the right tactics for anti-tank weapons now: lots of boots on the ground with the infantry ahead of the armour.

Posted by Apostate 2006-08-12 10:13|| 2006-08-12 10:13|| Front Page Top

#28 Lebanon is a real mismash of a country with three weak factions (Sunni, Christian, Druze) and one strong one (Hezbullies). If the Hezbullies are significantly degraded and the other factions, via the international force and training/build up of the Leb army, are strengthened, then perhaps, perhaps, the Hezbullies can be reigned in. At least it is possible that they will have to deal with internal conflicts rather than doing anything to Israel. The key is how much they are degraded, cause if they are the people are going to remember who started all this crap. While bitching about the Israelis is good for the TV camera, the reality is that the people saw Hezbully bury the rockets under the school and saw the AA gun up on the apartment roof. They know that Hezbully played them for suckers.

In the end though, I still think this is all prelude to far bigger stuff.

Posted by Remoteman 2006-08-12 10:52|| 2006-08-12 10:52|| Front Page Top

#29 Just saw this headline on Yahoo and almost blew my mouthful of Cheerios all over the screen:

"Nasrallah accepts cease-fire
Hezbollah leader says fighting will continue as long as Israeli troops remain in Lebanon."

Looks like the fighting will be going on for a while yet. BTW, how do you do italics in comments?

Posted by Remoteman 2006-08-12 11:42|| 2006-08-12 11:42|| Front Page Top

#30 highlight the text you want italicized then hit the "i" button

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-08-12 11:46|| 2006-08-12 11:46|| Front Page Top

#31 Clicking buttons while highlighting text, or typing the codes listed below the comments box.

Posted by anonymous5089 2006-08-12 11:48|| 2006-08-12 11:48|| Front Page Top

#32 Olmert will recommend that his government approve the deal in its meeting on Sunday, the officials said on condition of anonymity

call me when it is official.

Posted by Shush Sholuth7794 2006-08-12 12:04|| 2006-08-12 12:04|| Front Page Top

#33 No confidence vote in 5-4-3-2....

Posted by Mark E. 2006-08-12 12:13|| 2006-08-12 12:13|| Front Page Top

#34 Wow! First war Israel has lost. Congrats to the Olmert administration.

Posted by Dave T. 2006-08-12 14:37|| 2006-08-12 14:37|| Front Page Top

#35 Just Peachy! Now Hezbolla will be able to fire missles over the heads of German, French, Eygyptian, and Turkish troops and the only way Israel can respond (on the ground) is with an act of war against those nations... Just Peachy.

Posted by Just Peachy 2006-08-12 14:44|| 2006-08-12 14:44|| Front Page Top

#36 IMHO those troops will never deploy, because the fighting won't stop to allow it. Hezbollah can't disarm or stop attacking the Jooooos while Israel's in Lebanon, and Israel will keep attacking Hezbollah while it's getting hit. I think that's why Israel's setting up as far north as possible before the time the deal is supposed to go into effect. My 2 cents FWIW

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-08-12 15:05|| 2006-08-12 15:05|| Front Page Top

#37 Look for the French to suggest that their troops should first go onto a narrow strip at the border with Israel and keep the IDF as a shield between them and Hizb'Allah.

Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2006-08-12 22:27|| 2006-08-12 22:27|| Front Page Top

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