Article

2003-09-08 Iran

Iran warns pressure to open nuclear facilities could backfire

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred Pruitt 2003-09-08 00:08|| || Front Page|| [11128 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Hope everyone (meaning the US) keeps intense pressure on the Iranians. Like, what are they going to say, "We need ~~enriched uranium~~ er nuclear power because we are running out of oil and gas ~~even though we are flaring off enough gas to light up the country~~. Might as well catch them up in their own lies, even if just for the spittle spectacle value.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-9-8 12:30:37 AM|| 2003-9-8 12:30:37 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Pressure is good. Shutting down NK first would close the spigot on missile technology proliferation.

Posted by Super Hose 2003-9-8 7:55:56 AM|| 2003-9-8 7:55:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Good point, Super Hose [still can't get used to the name, LOL]. We'll see who wins the prize for the most intransigent and stupid. If the NORKS are shut down, then the major supplier of bomb and missle components is gone. If Iran is shut down, then a major consumer is down. I would like to see Iran's capability degraded or shut down. They would then be on the downhill slide and money would start drying up for Hizbollah and co. This would take some heat off Israel.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-9-8 8:35:12 AM|| 2003-9-8 8:35:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 If NK leaves the weapons market, do the Russians and Chineese step in or does the market starve?

The Russians and Chinese are supplying weapons technology to our enemies. We sell neither ballistic nor cruise missiles to our allies (except for the UK). China and Russia do both. We don't transfer nuclear, biological or chemical weapons expertise to anyone. China and Russia do both. Some of this proliferation is pure commerce, and an attempt to defray huge fixed R&D and tooling costs, but some of it is a calculated strategy of arming America's enemies to keep American power in check.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2003-9-8 10:24:44 AM|| 2003-9-8 10:24:44 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Obviously the Iranians don't have enough oil to go around. The western world should cut off sales of Iranian oil if they do not stop.

Posted by Yank 2003-9-8 10:52:27 AM|| 2003-9-8 10:52:27 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 The western world should cut off sales of Iranian oil if they do not stop.

Impossible to enforce except by blockade. If Iran is willing to sell its oil at a slight discount, there will always be willing takers. China, for example, would probably be glad to strike what it would describe as a blow against American hegemony by buying Iranian oil. Note that the Chinese president Jiang Zemin's final lap before handing over the reins to his successor was to visit each and every one of the most oppressive oil-producing states in the Mideast, including Iran and Libya.

A leaky blockade is possible, given that Iraq now borders a number of the 'stans*, but it would take a lot to get our European allies to go along. For them, relations with Iran are all about the oil.

* Give the 'stans enough financial incentives (through the foreign aid budget) and they'll tighten the spigots. The embargo won't be perfect, but it will be enough to bring the mullahs to their knees.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2003-9-8 11:18:24 AM|| 2003-9-8 11:18:24 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Impossible to enforce except by blockade.

Oh come on, Zhang Fei, don't you read the news? All you need to do is blow up the pipelines!

Posted by Tom 2003-9-8 12:52:22 PM|| 2003-9-8 12:52:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Or go the Iranian tanker war route and start sinking ships.

Posted by Yank 2003-9-8 1:50:21 PM|| 2003-9-8 1:50:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 We can't do anything as the Iranians will get pissed. Blockading is useless, It's like a buffer zone. Hey, I've got an idea. Knock out the oilfields in Iran, sabotage their pipelines. Seize the Saudi oilfields and attack certain members of the elite. Just do it and deny it. Bring down Chavez in Venezuela. Just do it and deny it. Say something like "Our saddness over this matter is profound". Ya know, might work.

Posted by Lucky 2003-9-8 2:02:03 PM|| 2003-9-8 2:02:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Oh come on, Zhang Fei, don't you read the news? All you need to do is blow up the pipelines!

An attack on pipelines wouldn't completely destroy Iran's ability to sell oil. Oil is also transportable via water routes and by truck. This is how Iraq evaded some of the sanctions. But attacking Iran isn't a military problem - it's a diplomatic one. Any kind of military action against Iran is going to have to surmount some pretty high diplomatic hurdles in order to get our so-called allies on board.

I think domestic public opinion-wise, though, Iran will be a cinch compared to Iraq. Between the hostage crisis and the Marine barracks bombing, the Iranians have a lot to answer for.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2003-9-8 2:13:25 PM|| 2003-9-8 2:13:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 I don't know about you, but I'm increasingly losing interest in diplomacy with our so-called allies. Save the diplomacy for our real allies. The rest be damned.

Posted by Tom 2003-9-8 2:46:29 PM|| 2003-9-8 2:46:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Do notice that I said "the western world should" that would mean Europe and the Anglosphere agreeing to not purchase Iranian oil. If that happened there are few other nations with the ability to move oil to market so it doesn't matter who else breaks the boycott. It's wishful thinking to think the French would do anything in the wests best interests if it meant siding with the US without bribes, etc, but I can dream anyway.

Posted by Yank 2003-9-8 4:32:48 PM|| 2003-9-8 4:32:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Alaska Paul, If NK leaves the weapons market, do the Russians and Chineese step in or does the market starve?

Mr. Super Hose---The Russians have already been marketing purported countermeasures to some of our military offense and defense systems. They need the money. Pooty-Poot cannot be trusted. The Chicoms will do the same. We KNOW that they are liars and thieves. I do not see that we have too much leverage to control the above. So it is a race with drying up the money sources (Mainly Saudi and Iran) with possible military action against nuclear weapons related sites. Then you have Pakistan. They have ties with the Chicoms, and making deals with the Paks is like signing an agreement with someone with multiple personality disorder. This is the breeze-gale before the storm. I can feel it in my Strontium 90-infested bones.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-9-8 4:43:57 PM|| 2003-9-8 4:43:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 So the weapons market stays about the same regardless of how you work the supply side. You recommend going after the damand side like we're doing.

Why would pushing the issue backfire if nuclear weapons are against Islamic Law like the Iranians were sauying today? Obviously, they have no attention of endangering their standing with Allah so the inspections will be a breeze...

Posted by Anonymous 2003-9-8 8:20:53 PM|| 2003-9-8 8:20:53 PM|| Front Page Top

23:47 Anonymous
09:43 Hiryu
01:25 Rex Mundi
00:44 Mike Kozlowski
00:12 mojo
00:03 True German Ally
23:08 Cog
23:05 Not Mike Moore
23:01 Bomb-a-rama
22:59 Not Mike Moore
22:55 Not Mike Moore
22:52 Not Mike Moore
22:47 Not Mike Moore
22:47 Not Mike Moore
22:44 Lucky
22:37 Bomb-a-rama
22:30 Ptah
22:24 Lucky
22:20 Frank G
22:16 Frank G
21:59 Frank G
21:52 john
21:35 Yank
21:33 Yank