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2005-09-01 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Dan Darling 2005-09-01 03:33|| || Front Page|| [8 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 "..."the incontestable right of the Iranian nation."So does this fall under"The Devine Right of Kings,or Manitest Destiny.

Posted by raptor 2005-09-01 08:45|| 2005-09-01 08:45|| Front Page Top

#2 It falls under "suicide by America".

Posted by ed 2005-09-01 08:46|| 2005-09-01 08:46|| Front Page Top

#3 The Republican Guards can read? Who knew!

Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-01 13:46|| 2005-09-01 13:46|| Front Page Top

#4 Imperial Japan had the same aspirations prior to WWII. To have "their place in the sun". Truthfully, as you look at Japan today, they were right in that they *should* be an economic powerhouse. However, they, like the Iranians, were wrong in how to go about getting that power.

In Japan's case, they had territorial ambitions, and strategic ones. They needed oil and iron for their economy and military might. They, too, knew who would be their enemy in this pursuit.

Iran knows what it needs, likewise. A military that can dominate the region with its trump card, nuclear weapons and missiles that can deliver them around the world. It knows that strategically, it is just too large a target for any but the largest and most powerful armies to defeat.

Territorial domination is not really necessary--spiritual domination is their key. By uniting all Shiites under their banner, Iran would spread its domination as did the Ottomans, their historical model. Iran would be the seat of power, all other Shiite nations would be subservient to its demands.

Iran has long been haunted by xenophobia, a fear of invasion, and an intense awareness of its own divisions. In this way, too, it is also like Japan.

Its weakness is its bravado. While it endlessly reassures itself of its power, it will have to proclaim its power to the world, and to the face of those who might oppose it, in such a way that it cannot be ignored.

For Japan, this was done with the attack on Pearl Harbor. For Iran, a similar effort, most likely using a nuclear missile targetting a US fleet, Israel, or US forces in Iraq, will be their statement.

If they are successful, it will be the beginning of a terrible, bloody war. If their missile is shot down, then Iran faces an ultimatum that can only be speculated.

Ironically, Iran *should* economically dominate the Middle East, as Russia dominates Europe. But this eventual outcome, this lesson, will most likely only be learned when they have been humbled.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-09-01 19:38|| 2005-09-01 19:38|| Front Page Top

#5 Good stuff 'moose.

Posted by Shipman 2005-09-01 20:25|| 2005-09-01 20:25|| Front Page Top

#6 I still find it remarkable that analysts persist in viewing the world through an ideological (and that includes religion) lens, when anyone with any experience of Asia knows that ethnicity trumps ideology every time. Iran is multi-ethnic mini-empire in decline since the early 1800s when they were repeatedly defeated by the Russians. The future of Iran is being writ in Iraq. Take an ethnic distribution map of Iran and overlay the oil and gas fields and you will see what I mean. 90% of Irans oil is in areas where non-Persians are in the majority. Of the non-Persians, the Kurds and Arbs would jump at any chance to be free of their Persian overlords. The Azeris would doubtless follow.

I still forsee a rolling disintegration long the lines of Yugoslavia driven by Kurds in the North and Arabs in the south (once the Iraqi Sunni insurgency dies down) that would leave a rump Iran with almost no oil. Were Iran to use nuclear weapons it would certainly be on Iraq.

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-01 20:56|| 2005-09-01 20:56|| Front Page Top

#7 Is it a clash of civilizations with the American or the Sunnis? I suspect the latter.

Posted by 11A5S 2005-09-01 21:48|| 2005-09-01 21:48|| Front Page Top

23:59 Gleregum Elmaimp9510
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22:54 Jackal
22:48 True German Ally
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