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2003-02-25 Korea

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Posted by tu3031 2003-02-25 07:43 pm|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 i dont see why the US would withdraw forces from a nuclear Japan. And i have difficulty with China wanting a nuclear Japan in preference to US forces in the region.

The problem with any expansionist China scenarios is that the alliance to contain China is so natural - US-Japan-India-Russia-Viet Nam- ASEAN, as well as Taiwan.

Posted by liberalhawk 2003-02-25 13:10:12|| 2003-02-25 13:10:12|| Front Page Top

#2 Liberalhawk. Granted, it's a theory. But they've got a chance at getting what they want in Korea, seeing that a lot of their younger generation seem to think we're facist occupiers opposing unification and a lot of people over here seem to think the SK's are ungrateful bastards who don't deserve US protection.
Concerning Japan, we may not withdraw, but we might be asked to leave someday. I know they weren't too crazy about us in Okinawa.
As far as the natural alliance goes, do you really think these countries would put it on the line if China makes a move on Taiwan?
They may not get all they want, but they might get some of it. And without a lot of effort on their part.

Posted by tu3031 2003-02-25 13:37:13|| 2003-02-25 13:37:13|| Front Page Top

#3 I don't want to diminish militant Islam as a threat to western civilization, but China is an 800 lb. gorilla in the background. All the more reason we need to solidify real friendship with our natural allies, Russia and India. Otherwise our children will all be studying Mandarin Chinese in less than 25 years.

Posted by Scooter McGruder 2003-02-25 13:58:03|| 2003-02-25 13:58:03|| Front Page Top

#4 "As far as the natural alliance goes, do you really think these countries would put it on the line if China makes a move on Taiwan?"

You mean whould they all go to war - I doubt it. But they would either support the US, or make it clear to China that the consequences in diplomatic and economic isolation would exceed the benefits of retaking Taiwan. Depends on the circumstances, too.

Posted by liberalhawk 2003-02-25 14:15:21|| 2003-02-25 14:15:21|| Front Page Top

#5 Remember the basic issue for the Party to control the population. No control, no party. It is currently threatened by the corruption within its own ranks. This is the historical base in which many of the prior Chinese dynasties started their fall. The provincial governors became more powerful through the economy as not to be dependent upon the central government. The corruption compounded the effectiveness of the central government and alienated enough of the people, so as to reduce the obedience of the masses. When someone would revolt, the monies and the bodies were not forthcoming to defend the center. Now with the Chinese economy in the still early stages of development a large portion of the population has moved to the cities and are less and less under party control. One of the major engines driving the conversion of the economy is the huge trade deficit with the US. A total economic embargo would start the collapse of the current social structure. Remember the Chinese are not kept in the dark about the outside world like the North Koreans. They are now in the cycle of rising expectations which is a very volatile social state. If the trade collapes, very large numbers of people are suddenly out of work and have zero means for the basics of life - food, clothing, shelter. That historically breeds major instability in the governing ability of those in power. While the government could blame foreigners for their self-created problem, they can't sustain that as the basis for keeping the hungry in line. Self interests of both the people and regional authorities, those officals becoming wealthy upon the corruption, will once again threaten the current dynasty's hold on power. That is not a good strategy for Beijing.

The viable solution for the Chinese is to saleout the N.Koreans and agree to joint occupation of the North with the South and the reduction of the American forces to a Military Assistance Group level. That would create the fastest and safest transition which in the end accomplishes their overall goal in the penisula. However, that would be too simple.

Posted by Don 2003-02-25 16:02:02|| 2003-02-25 16:02:02|| Front Page Top

#6 I believe this commentary is deeply flawed because its basic assumption is that China is most concerned about American troops. This is inaccurate. The Chinese are fixated on Japan, and while Americans are more than willing to let World War 2 fade into the past, the Chinese suffered horribly at Japanese hands, and they are much less willing to forgive or forget.

They view us as the ones who can best keep the Japanese under wraps.

Of course, if the Japanese decide to undertake a major rearmament program or announce a shift away from a "self-defense" military policy, then look out!

Posted by Dreadnought 2003-02-25 16:28:41|| 2003-02-25 16:28:41|| Front Page Top

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