Article

2003-03-03 Iraq

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Posted by Murat 2003-03-03 02:54 am|| || Front Page|| [6 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 The stupid, arrogant, tactless ones are the legislators who -- absent quick reversal -- will soon watch their economy crater and their Kurdish population get restless or worse.

But at least they'll still have their vanity.

Posted by someone 2003-03-03 03:49:21|| 2003-03-03 03:49:21|| Front Page Top

#2 Can anybody tell me what it means when the US have distributed so many weapons to the militias, that you can buy hand grenades for $2 on the market in Arbil (North Iraq). What is Bush doing, fighting terrorism or creating terrorism? Those same hand grenades the Kurds will use soon or later on the American GI's (and suddenly they will become terrorist in American terms)

Posted by Murat 2003-03-03 04:14:14|| 2003-03-03 04:14:14|| Front Page Top

#3 Nobody can deny the road to Bagdad has it's share of potholes. But we will travel there.

Posted by john 2003-03-03 06:45:07|| 2003-03-03 06:45:07|| Front Page Top

#4 How dare you lecture us, Murat? Your nation has made their choice, and now I hope they are prepared to reap what they sow. And let's just see where those calls from Ankara to Washington go...

Posted by Brian 2003-03-03 07:10:39|| 2003-03-03 07:10:39|| Front Page Top

#5 "Might" is not "will", Murat, a subtlety in the english language that perhaps is escaping you. You're neither a prophet, seer, or genius, and nor is anyone else, so neither you, nor anyone else, can say with 100% certainty what will or will not happen. "It might, it might, it might" may be successful against the insecure who want cradle to grave security and 100% guarantees, but it's lost on people used to evaluating the risks and taking action in view of known threats. The ability to take risk is an american cultural thing, so YOU be multicultural about it and LIVE with it.

We'll cross that bridge when we come to it. A world with one less WMD-seeking and using dictator is a better world, regardless of the bogey men you see in the shadows that MIGHT leap out to bite us.

I don't like the idea of multiplying nations that just add up to more demands on American taxpayer generosity. At the same time, the Kurds have proven to run their little world a hell of a lot better than most other, more established arab countries.

By the way, how's your stock market doing?

Posted by Ptah 2003-03-03 07:23:44|| 2003-03-03 07:23:44|| Front Page Top

#6 Turkey's motivations are a jumble. Different members of the legislature have diffirent reasons for what they do.

Also, the Kurdish motivations are not unified. Although most Kurds are very willing to live in a unified Iraq, there are some who aren't, and a few or the latter are potential terrorists.

Still, as pointed out, the number and scope of open democratic institutions the Kurds have created in the last ten years is worthy of praise. I hope that as they get more power, it doesn't corrupt them.

Posted by mhw 2003-03-03 07:32:08|| 2003-03-03 07:32:08|| Front Page Top

#7 I think many parliamentarians just signed their own resignation letters. Caving to populism and ignoring economic reality is a surefire means of destabilization. Turkey looks to be losing its secular appeal. If Turkey alienates both the EU and the US, it does not bode well for its future.

One question is whether this is an attempt to cozy up to the Axis of Weasels and strengthen Turkey's bid to enter the EU. If so, I believe they're pumping a dry well. Old Europe has proven that it does not remember nor stand by its friends, whereas the US has a very long memory, and the means to help its friends.

Another question is how the Kurds will use this to their advantage? My thinking is that they just became more valuable to the US. I wonder if an independent Kurdistan could ever emerge?

Posted by mjh 2003-03-03 07:42:20|| 2003-03-03 07:42:20|| Front Page Top

#8 Hello Ptah

I have no doubt that the US will cross that bridge, it will take a bit longer but she will cross.
I do however disagree about the Kurds running their little world, I would ask you how if it where not the 13% share of Iraqi oil enforced by the UN sanctions and the UN administrated projects that runs that sub-sub artificial 36th parallel entity in northern Iraq.

Thank you for asking, this morning the stock market showed a sharp dive but it is stabilizing now with a light rise.

Posted by Murat 2003-03-03 07:44:15|| 2003-03-03 07:44:15|| Front Page Top

#9 Dissapointing post and comments by Murat. Turkey is a "democracy" and we should respect their decision. However to turn around and blame the negative decision on US pressure is infantile and smacks of anti-Americanism. As mjh notes if this decision stands it will hurt Turkey, for the US it complicates the war effort a bit but is not a show stopper. And the US saves $15-$30BN.

Posted by AWW 2003-03-03 07:58:55|| 2003-03-03 07:58:55|| Front Page Top

#10 I agree with Brian and Ptah. Perhaps finally in all this the US will come to see who its true allies really are. We are so sorry we did not ask for your help as politely and sensitively as we should have, Murat. You see, we are under a wee bit of stress here as each day we wait to see whether a WMD will be set off here in our own country. That might cause us to be a bit testy now and then, but at least as long as GWB is president our true friends (Blair, Howard) will not be forgotten.

Posted by Anonymous 2003-03-03 08:29:38|| 2003-03-03 08:29:38|| Front Page Top

#11 MWW,

If my views are more pro fatherland than pro American, which disappoints you thatâs not a pitty, so be it Turkey is a billion times more precious to me than the US, but this is not anti-Americanism.

I really doubt this saves anything to the US, that $15-$30BN you mention are balloons as empty as the promises of 1991, but anyway thatâs not to the point or as important as some media stories try to balloon it. Whatâs important is the after war prospects in which the US give no guarantees, the words of Bush are not enough as Powell and ambassador Pearson want to make us believe, experience from the Gfwar 1 did teach that. To be short the US asks Turkey to jump in an internationally unapproved war without giving any solid assurances. One of the UN guidelines says that no country should allow a second country to use its territory for attacking a third country without UN authorization (one that has been signed by the US as well).

Posted by Murat 2003-03-03 08:50:23|| 2003-03-03 08:50:23|| Front Page Top

#12 Rigggghhhtt ....the U.S. is acting like a cowboy - insensitive to others' high principles and religious pieties. Of course, this could have been overcome for a few billion more...

reminds me of the joke with the ending:
"sir...what do you take me for?"
"I think we've already established that ma'am, now we're just negotiating a price"

Posted by Frank G 2003-03-03 08:52:23|| 2003-03-03 08:52:23|| Front Page Top

#13 The US has supported Turkey's desire to join the EU and Turkey's defense by NATO. The US was willing to pay an ally for assistance and work with Turkey's concerns about its own Kurdish problems. That is arrogance?
Turkey has not shown sensitivity to American concerns about Iraq. It is hypocritical for Turkey to condemn American insensitivity.
Many commenters here have observed that playing politics with vital American interests is foolish and short-sighted. This is not a proud moment for Turkey.

Posted by Arthur Fleischman 2003-03-03 08:58:10|| [www.untoldmillions.com/weblog_page.htm] 2003-03-03 08:58:10|| Front Page Top

#14 Typical media and Euro blather where the Turks are not responsible for their own indecision and waffling, Dick Cheny is. You think they'd get it by now. After 9-11, we aren't playing with words anymore and the enemy never was. This is not a game. We intend to kill the terrorists and protect our freedom at ANY cost, though we'll do our very best to limit the suffering.

Just as we misunderstood the character of the Turks (they'd rather hurt us than help themselves) they misunderstood OUR character. You are either with us or against us in this fight. The Turks chose their position - as is their right - now they need to live with the consequences instead of blaming the US because we forgot to ask for the cherry when we said, pretty please. Americans are so waaay beyond playing that little game.

Posted by becky 2003-03-03 09:14:39|| 2003-03-03 09:14:39|| Front Page Top

#15 Murat -
I have no problem with you being more pro-Turkey than pro-US, I'd be surprised if you weren't. My dissapointment came in the "it's America's fault" analysis of the Turkish vote - it sounds eerily familiar to the "they deserved 9/11" rant.
Granted that Turkey suffered from GW1 but to assume they will screwed again after this war, after the US has gone to great lengths to help Turkey (noted above) is an assumption. As for the UN we have seen over the past 6 months how useless this organization is.
I enjoy your posts and insight Murat so I don't want to get into a p*ssing match with you - I just believe this was a strategically poor decision by Turkey that will hurt them in both the short run and long run.

Posted by AWW 2003-03-03 09:27:34|| 2003-03-03 09:27:34|| Front Page Top

#16 AWW -
I will be the last one ever to say anything like "they deserved 9/11". As I think the US didnât deserve that, I think also we donât deserve terrorism after another gulfwar. How many Americans suffered terror, 3000, 4000? In my country more than 30.000 suffered that evil, mainly trough American failures of GW1 and their wildly arming up of the local Iraqi militias, those weapons eventually exploded in my country.

Agreeing that it might be a strategically poor decision by Turkey (in economical aspect), it sets however the final wish to give a sign that we want very solid assurance that GW2 will not take another 30.000 lives in my country. None of the billions of losses you hint at can match that. As long as the US doesnât firmly assure disarming the Iraqi militias after a war, I think that the Turkish government was right in not passing the bill.

If we are talking about fighting terrorism it must not be limited to terrorism against the US, which saddles an ally with mess after wart. Itâs really up the US officials once they ensure that a second motion can pass the next day.

Regards,

Posted by Murat 2003-03-03 09:49:47|| 2003-03-03 09:49:47|| Front Page Top

#17 Let's all admit that there's blame for everyone here.

The Turks need to understand how important ridding the world of Saddam is. They also need to understand the importance of having a say in post-war Iraq, and how they WON'T have a say if they don't work with us.

The Turks also need to understand that the US has stood up for them in the past; EU membership, NATO, and an even-handed approach with the Greeks (e.g., Cyprus) are but a few examples. We don't like being dissed after putting ourselves on the line for someone.

We could certainly be more understanding of Muslim religious holidays, if the story is correct. There are times when the US isn't especially good at quiet diplomacy, and dealing with the Turks strikes me as something where quiet diplomacy is the best option.

After all, the goal is for each side to get what they need so that we can get moving.

Posted by Steve White 2003-03-03 10:54:40|| 2003-03-03 10:54:40|| Front Page Top

#18 Murat, I agree with AWW: I'd have been surprised if you DIDN'T regard your homeland with fierce patriotism and want to do what's needed to be done to establish the security of your nation. I even recognize your right to whine when equally motivated and equally patriotic Americans, with a similar regard for America, act in a similar self-interested manner. Fair's fair, right?

Posted by Ptah 2003-03-03 11:18:17|| 2003-03-03 11:18:17|| Front Page Top

#19 If this is halfway accurate, it's time we keep Cheney away from anything that even looks like diplomacy. I recall that we had to send Powell out to mend fences when the VP made his grand tour of the Middle East.

To put it another way, if we have essentially returned to pre-World War II norms of diplomacy it's time to relearn the niceties.

More hands to be played in this game for sure though

Posted by Hiryu 2003-03-03 11:55:31|| 2003-03-03 11:55:31|| Front Page Top

#20 Whine about us being heavy-handed w/them, yet how heavy a hand do the Turks want to use against the Kurds?

Maybe if Turkey got its act together and made itself attractive/prosperous for the kurds, it might change a few minds and hearts. Or let got of the tribal aspect. Which is what we're seeing in the rest of the world.

Posted by Anonymous 2003-03-03 12:22:26|| 2003-03-03 12:22:26|| Front Page Top

#21 pro-fatherland, murat? Couldn't you have chosen a term less nazi-like? Like birth-country? homeland?

And "got rid" not "got of the tribal aspect"

Posted by Anonymous 2003-03-03 12:25:37|| 2003-03-03 12:25:37|| Front Page Top

#22 Turkey is holding up the invasion. Had this been settled long ago, we would've seen the vote at the UNSC, followed by Bush telling Chiraq "Vas t'faire foutre!", followed by the scream heard 'round the world as Saddam gets his balls yanked off by an M1A1, just before he gets hacked to pieces by his own people and fed to the lions at the Baghdad Zoo.
But that's ok Turkey, go ahead and side with your real friends the Europeans. It was a tough choice, EU membership or US loyalty, wasn't it?

Posted by RW 2003-03-03 13:31:49|| 2003-03-03 13:31:49|| Front Page Top

#23 Well, ships move at X speed and there comes a point when we need to know their destination. So putting pressure on people for a time to decide isn't bad. Keeping up the schedule is a good thing. Sh*t or get off the pot.

Posted by Lord Ben 2003-03-03 14:35:56|| [lordben.blogspot.com] 2003-03-03 14:35:56|| Front Page Top

#24 A light rise is not a 12.5% decline. A light rise isn't a 5% depreciation in the currency. A light rise is not the Prime Rate soaring past 60%. Nevertheless, let's see how tomorrow's trading session goes. I'm sure that Erdogan can blame it on the Jews (read Soros). After all, we decadent Western Capitalists are the root of all evil and not poor economic planning...

Posted by Brian 2003-03-03 17:18:09|| 2003-03-03 17:18:09|| Front Page Top

#25 Murat's points are valid. The aftermath of Gulf War I sucked for them... they had a lot of dead people too, and the economic hit was equally harsh. All of which could have been avoided if we'd just taken Saddam out the 1st time, but that's another rant. Bottom line, we weren't there to pick them up in a public way (quiet help via the IMF is nice but a mixed blessing).

Now we want their help again, and they're suspicious. I have no time for the Euros, but reverse the circumstances - wouldn't you be? They wanted guarantees we couldn't give, or couldn't be seen to give, and there was too much distrust to get a meeting of minds. That's too bad, and it will cost us both unless some miraculous diplomatic save can be made. But sometimes that's the way the world works.

I'm all for putting the French in our sights, and the Germans too. I'm all for doing everything we can to make the EU's life hell over their conduct on the Iraq issue. But I have zero animosity for Turkey, even though I wish they had decided differently.

Posted by Joe Katzman 2003-03-03 18:23:32|| [www.windsofchange.net] 2003-03-03 18:23:32|| Front Page Top

#26 Interesting perspective. The Germans DO allow the U.S. to use their bases in Germany at will for this war, even without UN authorization.
You might belittle this fact but actually this could get Germany into trouble. The German constitution (Grundgesetz Article 26 (1) forbids actions helping the "preparation of an offensive war" ("Handlungen, die geeignet sind und in der Absicht vorgenommen werden [...] die FÃ¼hrung eines Angriffskrieges vorzubereiten, sind verfassungswidrig. Sie sind unter Strafe zu stellen").
An US attack on Iraq without U.N. authorization would qualify (at least leading legal analysts say so). Schroeder could technically end up at court for allowing the U.S. to prepare war from German soil. Technically he could even end up in The Hague. Germany adopted the treaty of the International Criminal Court (the U.S. did not).
Sure, not very likely that this will happen. But if the U.S. strike without U.N. backing things could get messy.

Posted by True German Ally 2003-03-03 19:49:19|| 2003-03-03 19:49:19|| Front Page Top

#27 Sounds like this would be good time for Abdullah Gul to spend a weekend at Crawford.

Posted by john 2003-03-03 19:57:37|| 2003-03-03 19:57:37|| Front Page Top

#28 Here's what Biran was talking about, Murat.

Posted by Ptah 2003-03-03 21:16:35|| 2003-03-03 21:16:35|| Front Page Top

#29 TGA, I thought the use of some of the US bases in Germany was the result of the post-WW II Four Power Agreements, which gave us unhindered basing rights. I know some of the bases aren't covered by this, but I thought some were.

Posted by Steve White 2003-03-03 22:31:59|| 2003-03-03 22:31:59|| Front Page Top

#30 whats not mentioned here is that Turkey has been trying to enter the EU for a long time. This might be negotiations for more cash, or a nod to the french.

Frankly, paying a bribe of $15 billion is unreasonable. The missile strikes can be extended long enough for us to bring troops in through kuwait.

Makes for a bad logistics problem. Hope they got plans for no Turkey participation...

It does mean the campaign needs to begin earlier though, if we are to avoid the summer. Also, we will have a large bottleneck that will need protecting.

Posted by flash91 2003-03-04 00:35:26|| 2003-03-04 00:35:26|| Front Page Top

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