Article

2003-08-14 East Asia

China Positions Itself For War Over Taiwan Straits

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Posted by Frank G 2003-08-14 12:26:54 AM|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 They didn't fare too well last time they skirmished with the Vietnamese, as I recall.

Posted by Steve White 2003-8-14 12:55:03 AM|| 2003-8-14 12:55:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 The ultimate aim is to have a mix of top officers in each of the three regions facing Taiwan, including one with vast experience in airborne operations. In the event of war, all three regions become one well-coordinated theatre.

Vast experience in airborne operations? Did the PLA engage in airborne combat operations none of the rest of the world is aware of?

If I am not mistaken, Chinese regions are likened to military districts, in wartime to the Russian equivilent of a front.

It is hard to conclude if this shakeup is just a command staff rotation, or if China really is preparing the polish off Taiwan.

Posted by badanov 2003-8-14 7:34:00 AM|| [http://www.rkka.org] 2003-8-14 7:34:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 I think you're missing the key sentance: these appointments have strengthened Beijingâs command and control over the regions

The PLA is nearly independant from the central government in most of the provinces, as are, actually, most of the provinces. The coast facing Free China is developing economicly much faster than the rest of China, with the PLA in the area getting the benefits. Changes in command ensure more of the money and control flowing towards Peking.

The Chinese do not need airborne experience. Given enough air lift, they can just dump tens of thousands of troops out of the planes on chutes and know that enough will survive to fight. The benefits of having a huge army and no regard for costs in human life.

Posted by Chuck 2003-8-14 8:41:49 AM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2003-8-14 8:41:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Well, they better invest in a lot of Wild Weasel aircraft before they try an airborne assault. Transport aircraft will make big fat slow targets for Taiwan's SAM batteries.

Posted by Steve 2003-8-14 9:14:08 AM|| 2003-8-14 9:14:08 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Taiwan is not going to simply sit tight and watch the sky fill with parachutes, they will fight back and there is the nasty little rumor that they might have developed a nuke. At a minimum they have developed fuel air explosives. Granted there would be preparatory strikes by the PLA using probably the majority of the 300 to 500 short range missiles at their disposal.

However, there was another General in World War II (MacArthur) who had over 600 ships available to him and he by-passed Taiwan and left the Japanese in place, because the assult would have been too costly.

This isn't a flat, sandy deseRt - it is a rocky, urban landscape that will chew up a less technically advanced force.

Finally, the Kitty Hawk battlegroup is not going to simply watch this go down as well. All they have to interdict the 100 miles between Taiwan and the mainland. It will be a turkey shoot after two or three days.

I went through this scenario in my book REAP THE WHIRLWIND.

Posted by Douglas De Bono 2003-8-14 9:21:39 AM|| [http://www.DouglasDeBono.com] 2003-8-14 9:21:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Justed posted an article about a Taiwanese spending spree. There looking for 8 subs. Wonder what the geography is like for a sub in the area between Taiwan and the mainland. Does it favor a sub or does it favor the ASW asset ?

Posted by Domingo 2003-8-14 9:40:29 AM|| 2003-8-14 9:40:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Domingo, it favors the sub, in my opinion. Shallow waters make most anti-sub gear data tough to interpret correctly.

Doug, yes, but how many Commies are on the ground in that two or three days? We may close the Strait, but if they can land thirty or forty thousand troops before we do, we have a problem. The basic defense of Free China is to not let them land. I do not believe there are the fixed defenses in depth on Taiwan that we see in South Korea, for example.

And, we cannot assume that the Taiwanese defense is willing to die for Taiwan. In the face of a sharp and heavy attack, many of these units may choose to not resist. The ties between Free China and Communist China grow greater and greater each year. We should not underestimate the influence that the mainland would have over the actions of individual units, or the government itself.

Massive missle barrage against SAM sites and certain fixed defenses. Followed by airborne assault. Followed by a half assed amphib assault. Lots can happen in that first 24 hours, and Taiwan just folding up should not be discounted. The Commies have enough men that they can throw a quarter million at Taiwan in the first 48 hours, loose half, and still win.

Posted by Chuck 2003-8-14 10:05:40 AM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2003-8-14 10:05:40 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 The impression I've got is that the Taiwan population is vehemently nationalistic and would resist the Chinese.

The Taiwanese should be able to keep air superiority over Taiwan and the straits, even through a missile barrage, unless it is a nuclear attack. China's missiles would have to have GPS-level accuracy and effective real-time satellite targeting to suppress Taiwans airfields, and that wouldn't last before they ran out of ammo. Their air force is more efficient than China's, and on the whole much more modern.

A buildup for an amphibious attack would be detected long before D-day and the Taiwanese would have time to mobilize. Without air superiority it would not matter how many troops the Chinese send across the straits; there is more than enough firepower and surveillance available to the Taiwan Air Force and Navy to sink all the vessels carrying the Chinese troops.

If worst comes to worst, it should be easy enough to identify the invasion beaches while the Chinese are on their way, and deploy armored forces for beach defense - some brigades are so designated. The Chinese do not have the bombardment units available to suppress that.

Posted by buwaya 2003-8-14 12:01:37 PM|| 2003-8-14 12:01:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 The only chance China has right now of taking Taiwan is a first strike with nukes.

This would cause repurcussions that would cause the collapse of the Chinese economy (Japanese, Taiwanese and South korean investment leaves on the first flight out) and likely the fall of the party. There is also the chance the US would respond with nukes and it certainly would cause a Japan to rethink their lack of a nuclear capability.

For the PRC there is no upside in this scenerio.

Posted by Yank 2003-8-14 12:06:36 PM|| 2003-8-14 12:06:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 There would be a mass capital flight and disruption of trade from China under any current war scenario (and from Taiwan too).

Posted by buwaya 2003-8-14 12:14:48 PM|| 2003-8-14 12:14:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Yank - the no upside for China is true, but they don't seem to be thinking cost/benefit on Taiwan.

Posted by Frank G 2003-8-14 12:42:12 PM|| 2003-8-14 12:42:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 I have a co-worker that is Taiwanese, in the US on a work visa. His view is that if Mainland China invaded without provocation he would head back and defend Taiwan. If Taiwan declares independence and provokes the commies he would stear clear of the fight.

Posted by Domingo 2003-8-14 12:43:52 PM|| 2003-8-14 12:43:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 chuck the chinese will be hard pressed to get even on light division on the ground. by the time they have 20 thousand troops on the ground the taiwanese will have 3 divisions on top of them not to mention the kitty hawk battle group. they have been trying to increase their air/sealift but with not much success. just imagine a dunkirk in reverse - instead of fishing boats picking up troops you will have chinese junks delivering troops (kinda of a funny picture). one big turkey shoot. but it will be very nasty. as for the missles the chines have enough to lock down the ports/airfields for the most 2 days after that they will have exhausted thier supply of missles (if they attack in the next few years). the chinese will not attack unles provoked until they are ready.

Posted by Dan 2003-8-14 1:23:59 PM|| 2003-8-14 1:23:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 my impression is that the PRC has nothing close to the airlift or sealift for an invasion. Thats not really their strategy.

They would blockade - ships going in or our would be hit by Chinese Subs and destroyers, land-based air, and anti-ship missiles. Taiwan ports would be hit by land-based air, surface to surface missile, and would be mined. China is trying get enough modern long range fighters to gain air superiority over Taiwan.

Presumption is that US would send in 2 carrier battle groups. Chinese trying to figure out how to best use subs, missiles, and land based air against the carriers, and how to protect their missiles and airfields from cruise missiles and stealth aircraft.

In this context Taiwan wants subs for use against Chinese subs, and want Patriots for use against Chinese missiles and aircraft.

Posted by liberalhawk 2003-8-14 1:54:40 PM|| 2003-8-14 1:54:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 We have a very real interest in defending Taiwan and the strait. Over 80% of all computer mother boards pass through this water way. If you think the high tech industry has been in the doldrums for the past 3 years, try a war that knocks out their ability to get parts.

As to the 8 subs they want, we tried to sell them 8 German made diesels. But because we didn't make them, our good buddies the Germans vetoed the sale.

No, Taiwan doesn't have the indepth defenses that South Korea has, but they do have 100 miles of Ocean, murderous terrain and 50 years of history of hating Beijing. I am confident they will fight for their independence. Assuming the PLA could land troops and keep them supplied, it sounds alot like Operation Market Garden disaster for the PLA.

Finally, Taiwan is an economic crown jewel. Dropping WMD on Taiwan defeats the purpose, and would almost certainly trigger some sort of WMD response on our part.

Posted by Douglas De Bono 2003-8-14 2:30:59 PM|| [http://www.douglasdebono.com] 2003-8-14 2:30:59 PM|| Front Page Top

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