Archived material Access restricted Article
Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Sun 05/02/2004 View Sat 05/01/2004 View Fri 04/30/2004 View Thu 04/29/2004 View Wed 04/28/2004 View Tue 04/27/2004 View Mon 04/26/2004
1
2004-05-02 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Syria Sees Danger in Any Iraq Ethnic Federation
Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by B 2004-05-02 12:00:00 AM|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 The assumption has been that if Iraq is partitioned, it would be three partitions. But what if it were only two?

Remember the phrase "the reality on the ground", when talking about the Israeli/Palestinian mess?
Well, the reality of Iraq is that the Sunni and the Shia, contentious as they are, either fit together as "Iraq", or the Shia become a de facto, if not de jure, part of Iran. So they either hang together in a secular state, or they hang separately, as a starving poor Sunni enclave and a theocratic Shia dictatorship.
The real separation is between the two of them and the northern Kurds. "Kurdistan", a mythical place, is becoming a much more real possibility, and one that transcends the borders of Iraq.
The Kurdish state is a dream for the Kurds and a nightmare for the Syrians, Turks, and Iranians. It is also oil-rich, so it would not be an impotent backwater in the middle east.

And, while the Sunni and Shia have been futzing about, the Kurds have been preparing their state to be a de facto Kurdistan, whether or not it is part of Iraq. This would mean that either the Kurds living in Syria, Turkey and Iran leave those nations and emigrate to Kurdistan, peacefully, or that they violently try to tear off their part of each of those nations to add to Kurdistan (or a combination of these two things.)

The one critical factor will be if Kurdistan can build itself an army, and quickly. Not one just for self-defense from the rest of Iraq, but one capable of fending off all sorts of attacks from its three neighbors. These uprisings among the Sunni and the Shia should be fair warning to the Kurds: if you want to form a union with contentious people, the advantages had sure as hell better outweigh the hazards.
Posted by Anonymoose 2004-05-02 11:13:56 AM||   2004-05-02 11:13:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Agree, Kurdistan will stand on its own regardless of what happens to the rest of Iraq. I can't imagine us pulling out of there anytime soon. Not sure they can fend off all their enemies without our longterm presence. One problem is K-stan is landlocked. We just need a way to keep open a land supply route between them and Kuwait.
Posted by virginian 2004-05-02 1:23:43 PM||   2004-05-02 1:23:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 
Syria Sees Danger in Any Iraq Ethnic Federation
Good! He's getting the message.
Posted by Barbara Skolaut  2004-05-02 3:02:52 PM||   2004-05-02 3:02:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Syria Sees Danger in Any Iraq Ethnic Federation

Aaaaahhhhh! Run for your lives!!! Freedom is breaking out!
Posted by Zenster 2004-05-02 4:24:50 PM||   2004-05-02 4:24:50 PM|| Front Page Top

20:58 Gentile
20:58 Gentile
14:18 HalfEmpty
14:18 HalfEmpty
13:58  Gentle
13:58  Gentle
13:52  Gentle
13:52  Gentle
13:03  Gentle
13:03  Gentle
12:49  Gentle
12:49  Gentle
12:37  Gentle
12:37  Gentle
12:27  Gentle
12:27  Gentle
12:16  Gentle
12:16  Gentle
12:08  Gentle
12:08  Gentle
12:03  Gentle
12:03  Gentle
10:46  Gentle
10:46  Gentle









Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com