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2005-02-25 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Dan Darling 2005-02-25 3:24:09 AM|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Santa is getting lots of intel on who is being naughty. Assad aint gonna make it to 2006 alive.

Posted by phil_b 2005-02-25 8:40:47 AM|| 2005-02-25 8:40:47 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Since Iraq now has an elected goverment, is'nt this an act of war?

Posted by plainslow 2005-02-25 8:44:23 AM|| 2005-02-25 8:44:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 This kind of behavior by Syria should be condemned by all governments. In a lot of ways, it is worse than the assasination in Lebanon.

However, even the US hasn't condemned it yet, perhaps because the info isn't verified.

If the Iraqis had an operating govt and a capable armed forces with offensive capacity, this Syrian work would be an act of war. Of course, if Iraqi had the govt and army, Syria wouldn't do this.

Posted by mhw 2005-02-25 9:16:00 AM|| 2005-02-25 9:16:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Is Pakistan going to become the new Afghanistan? (boot-camp for jihad).

Posted by shellback 2005-02-25 9:55:25 AM|| 2005-02-25 9:55:25 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 mhw, it seems we're being very, very quiet about Syria all the while denying that we're going to attack Iran.

Syria is another Arab state ruled by a small minority to the detriment of the majority. Maybe we've discovered a new meme. Majority rule.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2005-02-25 10:14:10 AM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2005-02-25 10:14:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Chuck
Yes we are quiet about Syrian work in Iraq - much quieter than we could be.

There are a number of factors here.

1. As you say the Alawites are a small minority - maybe 10% of the population and they are are the controlling force. Perhaps another 5% of the country are mainline Shiites who sympathize with the Alawites (who in turn are an offshoot of Shiitism).
2. The Syrian govt is not totalitarian and not Islamic. You can critize the govt (although not the leader). You can even critize Islam (people from Saudi Arabia consider Syria the land of religious liberty).
3. We may be waiting for an Iraqi govt to put together a solid case against Syria for presentation at the UN.
4. Some of the confessions have goofy details in them that make you distrust the whole thing and we may not have evidence in the form of monitary transactions or corroberation.
5. Syria isn't the only country playing dirty in Iraq. There is Iran and the Saudis.
6. We may be counting on getting Syria out of Lebanon as a first step toward weakening the Assad regime after which we could hope he would be replaced by a 'reform' military govt.

I could go on and on and on.

Posted by mhw 2005-02-25 10:38:56 AM|| 2005-02-25 10:38:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 It's not like Bush needs more information that Syria is run by bad men. I have to believe Bush has a plan for them and it will play out. Why detract from the European trip by blowing this out of proportion now when it really won't change anything?

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-02-25 10:51:05 AM|| 2005-02-25 10:51:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 remember getting Syria out of Lebanon (all the way out, the intell guys as well as the ground pounders) has major implications. It leaves Hezbollah out in the cold in a largely hostile (IIUC) Lebanese polity, and takes away much of Syrias leverage over Israel, and ability to interfere with the peace process.

OTOH that doesnt help us much in Iraq. Although a weaker and more isolated Syria, without Lebanon, may be more careful. And will have less direct benefit from an Iranian alliance. Might be more possible to turn Syria in that instance - think Libya, rather than Iraq or Ukraine.

Syrian internal democracts are coming slowly out of the wood work, but Syrian opposition is likely to be mainly (sunni) Islamist. While there are arguments for letting them rule, and holding them to responsible behavior, I dont know if Bush-Condi et al will take that chance. I also doubt that France would support it (dont snicker - france cooperation with the US on Lebanon is quite important, and a real danger to Syria) and Im not too sure Sharon would support it at this point - better a chastened Assad than an unpredictible Muslim Brotherhood, with the peace process at a delicate stage.

MHWs point about a reform military govt is good though - i know too little about the internal politics of the Syrian military/security establishment to comment.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-02-25 11:13:53 AM|| 2005-02-25 11:13:53 AM|| Front Page Top

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