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2005-05-31 Europe

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Posted by SamL 2005-05-31 09:07|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I dont think Germany, whose voters have resisted market reforms, would be interested in a Blair led "market oriented" Europe. Esp without France. And if France AND Germany are out, I doubt that the Benelux countries, Italy or Spain would be interested. Youd be looking at an alliance of Britain the Scandinavians, Portugal, and the Eastern Europeans. And the Eastern Europeans, though theyd be much more ideologically sympathetic than the Scandinavians, are too dependent on trade with Germany. And I dont think Sweden would be interested, and if not Sweden, than not Finland. So youre down to UK, Port, and Denmark. Maybe.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-05-31 10:13|| 2005-05-31 10:13|| Front Page Top

#2 LH,

Not so quick on the Netherlands. And a Germany under CDU may look at this differently. A lot of this will be the way Blair and Chiraq appear through the press over the next six months. If Blair looks like the wise and patient parent dealing with the unruly child Chiraq throwing tantrums, there may be a lot of re-evaluation about who should hold the reins. The French were always threatening a two tier Europe. Perhaps the Brits should help it come to pass.

If there is to be a Europe it should be flexible enough to accomodate both social models. If this cannot be done, any Europe will founder on having one side try force its model on the other. Tony might be able to pull it off. Chiraq wouldn't even try.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-05-31 10:22|| 2005-05-31 10:22|| Front Page Top

#3 while Merkel may be favorable to market reforms, and less supportive of very tight relations with France, in opposition to the US. I cant see here going for a market EU without France. Keeping France and Germany together inside the EU has been German policy since the EEC, and even the Euro Coal and Steel Commision, 50 years ago, through admins of both parties in Germany. While Merkel might win the next election, the fact is that Schroeder is being hurt largely by voters who want LESS market oriented change. (it should be noted that Kohl did little in the was of market reforms - one of the reasons Schroeders position was worse than Blair or Clinton - Thatcher and Reagan made enough changes that a Third way pol could move (or try to move) things to the left - in Germany a Third way pol had to move things to the right)

As for the Netherlands, IF Germany wont go to a new UK led EU, AND France wont, it would be very hard for the Netherlands to, given their trade patterns. Not to mention their reluctance to break up Benelux.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-05-31 11:16|| 2005-05-31 11:16|| Front Page Top

#4 Liberalhawk

You relied on the comments of the NYT instead of relying in your own judgement about the results in Baden-Wurtemberg isn't it? If you were true then there would have been a shift toward leftier partists but these remained at abysmal lows. There could be some SPD people who abstained but most of the "missing" SPD votes seem to have gone to the CDU.

It is not so much about people opposing liberal reforms than about opposing reforms who don't work (Schroeder's)

Posted by JFM">JFM 2005-05-31 11:51|| 2005-05-31 11:51|| Front Page Top

#5 1. I thought it was North Rhine, NOT Baden Wurtemberg.

2.Ive seen that in a number of sources. In any case even if majority of Germans want more free market reforms (which has yet to be demonstrated) actually joining a new EU dedicated to that would be quite another thing. I think that might stretch Merkel's supporters farther than they want to go.

TGA's opinion would be useful on this, if not entirely unbiased.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-05-31 11:56|| 2005-05-31 11:56|| Front Page Top

#6 I'd agree with LH. I can't see the Germans embracing free market principles. Simply won't happen after thirty years of slackery. It's like telling your thrity year-old slacker son that he needs to go to medical school. The bar is far too high.

That said, the fundamental contradiction remains: you cannot have any real integration of two economic models, one based on high wages, sky-high taxes, labor inflexibility and heavy social protection (Fr-Ger) and another based on low wages, low - hell, flat taxes!! - and labor flexibility and deregulation (Pol-Estonia-Cz-Hun). Either integration will suffer, or wages and tax rates will race toward the bottom.

The French public has overwhelmingly signalled that they prefer social protection to a dynamic, competitive capitalist economy. The same answer would be given by the Germans were the question put to them with simplicity and honesty.

So the inevitable result is a compromise that yields neither real protection nor real growth. The French and Germans will buy off the East Euro-Tigers with increased subsidies, esp for farmers, steelworkers etc, in exchange for keeping their markets closed to real competition in the high growth service sectors that make up 70% of an advanced economy these days.

The EU can have protection or growth but not both. It can be great in geographic scope or great in coherence and focus, but not both. Most likely it will have neither.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-31 12:56|| 2005-05-31 12:56|| Front Page Top

#7 BTW, I notice both Lex(Thib) and Mrs D posting at Belgravia Dispatch.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-05-31 13:45|| 2005-05-31 13:45|| Front Page Top

#8 The EU will not break up. It will continue to expand, to include Bulgaria and Romania and eventually Ukraine. It will muddle forward as it always does.

But the elites' dream of an EU superpower is finished. There will be no coherent, unified political counterweight to the US. Instead there will be a customs union that produces some great technology and a few world-class technologies but nothing of great political significance outside of Europe. A tighter version of APEC.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-31 13:52|| 2005-05-31 13:52|| Front Page Top

#9 the 2 tiered europeon union will take place
the eastern europeon block tier 2
the traditional ten nations tier 1 briton will be in neither

Posted by Chavith Snavick6681">Chavith Snavick6681 2005-05-31 13:54|| 2005-05-31 13:54|| Front Page Top

#10 The EU as a political force in the non-European world is a dead letter. Long past time that Americans recognized that all of the threats and all of the opportunities for us in this century arise from Asia ie the near and far east. The axis of history no longer runs (as Kissinger put it to Allende) from Moscow to Bonn to London to Washington. It now runs from Washington to Tokyo to Beijing to New Delhi and Tehran and Baghdad.

The EU nations cannot seriously help or harm or hinder us in those regions. About time we shifted half or more of our Europe-based diplomatic and military assets out of the has-been region and into the region that is already defining the trajectory of our age. 2005 will be seen as the end of the American elite's foolish, outdated obsession with Europe.

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-05-31 14:09|| 2005-05-31 14:09|| Front Page Top

#11 liberalhawk

You are right it was Rhenania. It happens I made a trip to Baden-Wurtemberg by early May so I mixed names.

I don't care about what medias say. I care about data and common sense. The SPD people didn't go to the ecologists or the far left (both made poor scores), if total number of votes went strongly down it would mean many, many SPD people abstained and it would mean they did it due to lack of socialism, if stood stabmle then it could mean that many SPD peole abstained while an improbably high number of people who abstained in the previous election went CDU or, more prpobably that many SPD people went CDU. In those two later cases it would mean people only care about a policy who does work and the only thing they see is that Schroeder's doesn't.

In order to see what hypothesis is right you have to read the pols who are published in the following days where by asking or by analyzing the local political variations they can more or less determine who abstained and who turned coat.

Here in France they were telling that people were unhappy about Schroeder's liberal reforms within minutes of knowing the results. The data I mentioned is usually known only several days after the election.

And I still think is that stronger reason for SPD's routing is that simply it is not getting results.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2005-05-31 15:36|| 2005-05-31 15:36|| Front Page Top

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