Article

2005-09-01 China-Japan-Koreas

Russia-Chicom war games viewed as prep for NORK collapse

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Posted by Alaska Paul 2005-09-01 14:16|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 A Chinese-Russian attempt at the occupation of North Korea would immediately breathe new life into the US-ROK alliance. The question is whether it is worth a single GI's life to prevent North Korea from becoming Chinese/Russian territory. South Korea may unilaterally invade, perhaps with support from North Korean forces, if the Chinese and the Russians get involved. What if Kim uses his nukes against the Chinese and the Russians - either on their units or on their cities? This is the ultimate nightmare scenario - if we get involved.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 14:41|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-09-01 14:41|| Front Page Top

#2 including attempts by terrorists to acquire powerful weapons. Gee whiz, where on earth would terrorists get such weapons from, in that part of the world?

Separately, if China and Russia want North Korea, let them have it. Either they will begger their economies feeding the locals, or the world will be forced to notice that they allowed the locals to die off even more quickly than President Kim has been doing. Which might possibly end the romance South Korea has going with their totalitarian brothers.

Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-01 15:10|| 2005-09-01 15:10|| Front Page Top

#3 TW: Separately, if China and Russia want North Korea, let them have it. Which might possibly end the romance South Korea has going with their totalitarian brothers.

I don't think ROK will tolerate foreign forces ruling North Korea. And the relationship that the South Koreans are cultivating with North Korea has nothing to do with any admiration for totalitarianism - it is purely a ethno-racial thing.* In fact, a Sino-Russian venture like this may be the exact reason that Roh Moo-hyun is cultivating ties with the North Koreans - it will help to at least have shaken hands with their military leaders if the Russians or the Chinese decide to add to their holdings on the Korean peninsula, and the ROKs and NKPA forces conduct joint operations against Sino-Russian forces. Can ROK rely on American help to fight off the Chinese and the Russians? I would argue that they can't, since our brief on the peninsula is to keep ROK sovereign, not help prevent North Korea from being annexed by foreign forces.

* It's the same reason that Uncle Sam leaving the protracted multi-party war in the Congo alone, but would jump in with both feet if anything like that were to break out in say, Yugoslavia. Wait a minute - we did jump in with both feet.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 15:38|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-09-01 15:38|| Front Page Top

#4 The big question is what happens if North Korea detonates a nuke on top of the invading Chinese or Russian forces - without consulting their South Korean allies - and the Chinese nuke Seoul and other South Korean cities in response. Does the nuclear umbrella still apply in this instance? Are we obligated to nuke China in response? I think this is what I'll call the Guns of August scenario - where unexpected events take on a momentum of their own.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 15:43|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-09-01 15:43|| Front Page Top

#5 There is a third, and viable alternative here. The Chinese, especially, might move into Nork with the assistance of Russia, and at the request of the US.

First of all, the North has a "Maginot line" of guns pointed South, and may possibly have nuclear weapons. Only China has the manpower to swoop in there and secure both before they could be used. US air and sea power could blast away, but just couldn't *guarantee* the same results. The US couldn't even save Seoul from destruction.

Afterwards, China would immediately notify the US and Russia they had secured the nukes, and that everybody could militarily calm down.

Then the interesting part begins. China's best interests could be served not by maintaining control over Nork, but by immediately launching reunification talks with the South. The reasons for doing so are first, China doesn't want a huge influx of starving Norks flooding into China. If they turn the North over to the South, China wins big time. No refugees and huge money.

South Korea pays for the reunification and reconstruction of Nork, not China. China has a new best friend in the unified Korea, a wealthy trading partner with huge profits to China. The US most likely no longer has any remaining interest on the peninsula, and can leave. Much to the joy of China.

Korea already does things "the Chinese way" culturally, and there really are no serious issues between the two. China also has significant border controls so nothing too outrageous, too disturbing, is going to flood North into China.

Unified Korea remains capitalist and democratic. And, by being friendly with China, indirect pressure is exerted on Taiwan to join the club.

What the US gets out of the deal is to no longer spend money on an increasingly resentful South, to redeploy its military to where it is more useful, and to finally be rid of a Stalinist with nukes and missiles, without South Korea being ruined in the process.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-09-01 16:44|| 2005-09-01 16:44|| Front Page Top

#6 Alaska Paul: Excellent article, the posts from East-Asia-Intel seem pretty insightful.

Posted by Captain America 2005-09-01 16:47|| 2005-09-01 16:47|| Front Page Top

#7 Captain America---I find quite a bit of grain amonst the chaff in east asia intel. I try to post those articles that have some strategic bearing on what may be going on in East Asia. They seem to have quite a number of articles on N/S Korea that have some meat to them.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2005-09-01 17:32|| 2005-09-01 17:32|| Front Page Top

#8 A: There is a third, and viable alternative here. The Chinese, especially, might move into Nork with the assistance of Russia, and at the request of the US.

While they're at it, the Chinese might also send troops to Afghanistan and Iraq at Uncle Sam's request.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 17:48|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-09-01 17:48|| Front Page Top

#9 I think Moose has an insight that bears thought. I could certainly see, if the NKors looked like they were about to collapse (how could you tell? ed.) that the Chinese could take action to prevent a nightmare scenario: a) nukes get loose from the NKors (Chinese don't want them used to destabilize the 21st, Chinese, Century) and b) humanitarian crisis that explodes at their door-step.

And it wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that we'd go along with it, particularly if there was an under-the-table agreement that the Chinese intervention would be temporary. Indeed, the Chinese could, after a suitable interval, hand off to an 'international stabilization party' that would include them, us, the Rooskies and the SKors (Japan would fund but not attend, given Korean sentiments). Then after another suitable interval the SKors would quietly build a confederation between them and the North. It has advantages for all, and I think the Chinese are quite pragmatic -- the Korean peninsula isn't vital to them as long as it doesn't become a liability.

Just a thought.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2005-09-01 19:34|| 2005-09-01 19:34|| Front Page Top

#10 Remember kids, theres a reason the exercise was done on the shendong penninsula just across the water from North Korea and not Hainan island, which is a much more likely place to simulate an attack on Tawian.

Theres more to this story than people are letting on. Secretary Rice and several others have eluded to September being very important.

Now, has anyone heard anything about the troops in the exercise going home? or are they still wandering about tsingtao buyiung trinkets?

Posted by Frank Martin 2005-09-01 20:53|| www.varifrank.com]">[www.varifrank.com] 2005-09-01 20:53|| Front Page Top

#11 SW: I think Moose has an insight that bears thought. I could certainly see, if the NKors looked like they were about to collapse (how could you tell? ed.) that the Chinese could take action to prevent a nightmare scenario: a) nukes get loose from the NKors (Chinese don't want them used to destabilize the 21st, Chinese, Century) and b) humanitarian crisis that explodes at their door-step.

If the North Korean government looks like it's going to collapse, the ROK's are going to go charging in.* They're not going to take kindly to Chinese occupation of a land that Chinese historians have repeatedly staked out as Chinese territory. The Chinese are not going to spend billions and become the potential target of a nuclear attack by invading North Korea, just to pull out and let the South Koreans take over. If the Chinese move in, North Korea will become another Chinese province. Adding a few million ethnic Koreans to the millions of existing ones in China won't exactly change China's demographics.

It's silly to talk about destabilization being a problem for a Chinese century. Uncle Sam destabilized the entire world by forcing the European empires to dissolve* during the post-WWII era, thereby creating a Third World and removing a major barrier to Communist expansion.

* The ROK's aren't a pushover - they lost 5,000 men in Vietnam - more than any other American ally in the post-WWII era.

* This is in part why the European powers weren't real keen on helping Uncle Sam fight the Communists in Vietnam - on the one hand, no colonies, no interests, and on the other, the American role in destroying what they had spent much blood and treasure gathering did not exactly endear Uncle Sam to Europeans.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-01 20:58|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-09-01 20:58|| Front Page Top

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