Article

2005-09-18 Terror Networks & Islam

"Able Danger" Uncovered Cole Attack Three Weeks Beforehand

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Posted by Captain America 2005-09-18 00:47|| || Front Page|| [11127 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Interesting! They were data mining mobile phone traffic.

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-18 03:05|| 2005-09-18 03:05|| Front Page Top

#2 Not necessarily. It could just as easily be open source intel from news accounts.

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-18 06:02|| 2005-09-18 06:02|| Front Page Top

#3 Omerens, if Able Danger is using data mining then that involves processing very large amounts of electronically captured data looking for patterns. In a place like Yemen the list of data sources available is extremely short and the sources available to eavesdropers is even shorter. As soon as I read this, I was pretty sure I know how Able Danger did what they did. Unfortunately, if I can figure it out, so can others.

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-18 07:29|| 2005-09-18 07:29|| Front Page Top

#4 And its imperative that how Able Danger works is kept secret. This could roll up alot of terrorists as long as they don't know how it works. We need to maintain degrees of separation between intelligence and those we need to identify.

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-18 07:43|| 2005-09-18 07:43|| Front Page Top

#5 And its imperative that how Able Danger works is kept secret. This could roll up alot of terrorists as long as they don't know how it works.

Maybe. You're assuming they're acting on the inteligence, instead of collecting the intelligence, keeping it clean and storing it in a pristine environment - to be brought out only to display to close family and friends.

Posted by Shipman 2005-09-18 08:43|| 2005-09-18 08:43|| Front Page Top

#6 Yes, phil_b. I have some familiarity with data mining -- first hand.

Also with speech recognition as an adjunct to mining phone calls. Let's just say that it's an area where we have a lot of progress to be made - and that was even more true in 2000.

OTOH, there is far more info available on business transactions than you assume. By 'news' I meant not only the usual MSM but also the industry/business papers and websites, specialized newsletters etc. Shipping manifests, financial funds xfers, company registrations, lots of info like that exits for those who know the market sectors in question. Yes, even with regard to Yemen - and remember that's where bin Laden's family mainly came from, so it was being watched closely.

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-18 09:29|| 2005-09-18 09:29|| Front Page Top

#7 Omerens, I've already given the answer to any one who understands data mining or who is smart enough to figure it out.

Regards

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-18 09:42|| 2005-09-18 09:42|| Front Page Top

#8 Let me be more specific, phil_b.

I *do* data mining. And research technologies for it. For national security purposes.

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-18 10:07|| 2005-09-18 10:07|| Front Page Top

#9 I forget... are we supposed to be talking about how we suspect the data mining is going on or not?

Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2005-09-18 10:10|| 2005-09-18 10:10|| Front Page Top

#10 The issue isn't whether 'data mining' is going on. It's going on all around us, including by most major corporations in consumer markets.

The issue is what kinds of data were collected and mined, when. Phil wrote: As soon as I read this, I was pretty sure I know how Able Danger did what they did. Unfortunately, if I can figure it out, so can others.

And I called minor, friendly "bull shit" based on first hand knowledge.

Why does it matter? Because of the implications that talking about Able Danger exposes sources in Yemen. My response: not necessarily, at all.

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-18 10:13|| 2005-09-18 10:13|| Front Page Top

#11 But, tell me why again we have a CIA? The CIA is looking more and more like a huge pork expenditure.

Posted by macofromoc 2005-09-18 10:20|| 2005-09-18 10:20|| Front Page Top

#12 Omerens. I'm not trying to turn this into a pissing contest, but I do have credentials in this area. I am trying to obfuscate what I know, and maybe you are as well, which is good. And BTW, nothing I said implied a reliance on human sources, although it would be an interesting angle.

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-18 10:33|| 2005-09-18 10:33|| Front Page Top

#13 re: CIA, apart from well-deserved criticism of various kinds, keep in mind that in the late 90s / 2000 DOD had DARPA and other ways to get advanced research into some of these techniques.

The intel community only recently set up its equivalent, ARDA. That may be due to old history, i.e. NSA coming out of mainly Navy capabilities at the end of WWII.

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-18 10:40|| 2005-09-18 10:40|| Front Page Top

#14 But, tell me why again we have a CIA?

Based on what we've seen the last few years, the CIA is used to house the people too leftist to work at State.

Posted by Robert Crawford">Robert Crawford 2005-09-18 10:46|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2005-09-18 10:46|| Front Page Top

#15 Phil, no interest in a pissing match on my end either. I took your original comment They were data mining mobile phone traffic plus In a place like Yemen the list of data sources available is extremely short and the sources available to eavesdropers is even shorter. to mean that your concern about Able Danger discussions is that it would expose sources.

Technical means of collection, maybe, but probably not human sources IMO.

That we monitor phone conversations in some circumstances is established in the minds of many people, although the govt has not admitted to doing so (apart from idiot grandstanders in the Senate).

But *mining* them implies a whole bunch of other activities including accurate machine translation of a language in which heavy use is made of metaphorical expressions (among other things), followed by accurate machine classification / characterization of that info. I get concerned when the average RBer thinks that's a piece of cake and we've been doing it for years .....

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-18 11:07|| 2005-09-18 11:07|| Front Page Top

#16 boy, Jamie Gorelick and crew on the 911 panel were sure right to ignore these guys and deny ever hearing anything, huh? Nothing to see here, go about your business....

BS

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-09-18 11:11|| 2005-09-18 11:11|| Front Page Top

#17 I was datamining phone traffic for a decade before for engineering and development purposes. I thought we could never convince the gov types to look at our datamining techniques. Guess they had to go out and invent their own. Damn I hate wasting treasure on duplicate effort.

Someday.. I ought to post some of the charts and curves.... Prado Prado Prado tails... for the data calls and model changes based on if your are in revolt or not (catch the parinoid model its easy)

In some countries there are no privacy laws so its more fun.

Did you know data capable phones with cameras and such were invented to aid the prostitution industry in Japan? (See and talk to the prostitute live before going to meet her - It saves on being duped)

Those same phones were used to snap billions of upskirt photos...

Posted by 3dc 2005-09-18 11:17|| 2005-09-18 11:17|| Front Page Top

#18 oh - and outside the US the money for WAP is OnLine Betting and Horoscopes.

Reach out and touch your bookie on the instant whim or when the meeting is boring and you need to look industrious WAPing something important.

Come 4 o-clock choose your watering hole.
Come 7-9 choose your whore.

Posted by 3dc 2005-09-18 11:22|| 2005-09-18 11:22|| Front Page Top

#19 Come 11:30 text message your wife (who is on the internet chatting with some stud over the phone so you can't call her) to come pick you up at the train station as you are too drunk to drive home.

Posted by 3dc 2005-09-18 11:24|| 2005-09-18 11:24|| Front Page Top

#20 I was datamining phone traffic for a decade before for engineering and development purposes. I thought we could never convince the gov types to look at our datamining techniques. Guess they had to go out and invent their own. Damn I hate wasting treasure on duplicate effort.

That assumes they couldn't figure out traffic patterns on their own, 3dc. LOL

Yes, there are things you can infer from it. But I get worried when people think there are magic bullets we can just pick up and use. This is going to be a long, difficult fight, generational as Condi Rice says. It will take a lot of will, investment and determination on our part.

No magic bullets, including from traffic analysis .... ;-)

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-18 11:33|| 2005-09-18 11:33|| Front Page Top

#21 "Hey Monica, give this important message to the President immediately. It's about a pending terrorist attack on one of our ships. Don't forget".

Posted by DMFD 2005-09-18 11:35|| 2005-09-18 11:35|| Front Page Top

#22 No magic bullets is true but we did notice the Pals hunkering down 6 weeks before the intifada.
(no such thing as a riot without prep.)

Posted by 3dc 2005-09-18 11:39|| 2005-09-18 11:39|| Front Page Top

#23 Nothing like a drop in inter-CBSC trunked traffic by mobiles sold in PAL areas.

Posted by 3dc 2005-09-18 11:52|| 2005-09-18 11:52|| Front Page Top

#24 Was this really actionable intelligence? Really, if one was dumb enough to let the Cole steam into Aden with the same security it would have in Charleston for diplomatic reasons, would this report of traffic activity be sufficiently specific to change one's mind?

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-09-18 13:39|| 2005-09-18 13:39|| Front Page Top

#25 *Originally appearing in the Marine Corps Gazette, October 1995:

A major hurdle facing the Marine Corps is how to acquire, use, and exploit Open Source Information found along the information superhighway. We need to demystify and de-spook some of our intelligence. Military writer, John Schmitt, notes we have an intelligence "Tower of Babel" firmly cemented in place, shored up with an abundance of classification, and compartmentalized restrictions. It is difficult, if not impossible at times, to share information because of its classification. The cloak-and-dagger aspects have overwhelmed the fundamental purpose of exploiting information. Rather than use information and intelligence, we horde it.

http://www.osint.org/osq/v1n1/infogenie.htm

Posted by SwissTex 2005-09-18 13:50|| 2005-09-18 13:50|| Front Page Top

#26 Rather than use information and intelligence, we horde it.

I worked the spook business for 26 years in the Air Force, SwissTex, and truer words were never spoken.

Wasn't Able Danger disbanded right after the Cole debacle? I don't think it's still in business, at least not under that name. I HOPE someone is doing the work, but it's hard to tell. Not only is Intel secretive, it's also highly combative, and turf wars are frequent, though bloodless. It definitely needs reform, but the latest band-aid approach did nothing to truly accomplish that.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2005-09-18 15:08|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2005-09-18 15:08|| Front Page Top

#27 http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/15/2026256&tid=215&tid=193&tid=14

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-18 18:38|| 2005-09-18 18:38|| Front Page Top

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