Article

2005-09-19 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Steve 2005-09-19 11:35|| || Front Page|| [8 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Oh no! Not the dreaded instability! Anything but that!

Posted by .com 2005-09-19 13:43|| 2005-09-19 13:43|| Front Page Top

#2 Golly! Should I panic now, or wait until the popcorn is buttered and salted?

Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-19 13:55|| 2005-09-19 13:55|| Front Page Top

#3 You should wait until I get the lawn chairs out of storage...

Posted by Seafarious">Seafarious 2005-09-19 14:09|| 2005-09-19 14:09|| Front Page Top

#4 The biggest danger with an implosion of Assad's regime is the probability that Hamas would be installed as an official government.

Posted by lotp 2005-09-19 14:19|| 2005-09-19 14:19|| Front Page Top

#5 Christmas in Damascus?

Sounds feasible.

Posted by DanNY 2005-09-19 14:23|| 2005-09-19 14:23|| Front Page Top

#6 Well, let's see. Will they a) Impeach him?, or b) Arrest him?, or c) Expect him to be so embarrassed that he will resign?

Maybe the same tactics would work with Kim Jong Il.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-09-19 14:27|| 2005-09-19 14:27|| Front Page Top

#7 "The biggest danger with an implosion of Assad's regime is the probability that Hamas would be installed as an official government."

Quibble, actually the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, ideologically close to Hamas, but not the same organization.

actually theres some question how united the Syrian MB is. From what I gather they have a range of Sunni Islamist opinion, from "moderates" of the Erdogan stripe, all the way to AQ supporters. So if the MB takes over, the game is far from over.

and the MB isnt the only player - minorities - Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Kurds would all have something to say.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-09-19 14:30|| 2005-09-19 14:30|| Front Page Top

#8 Syrian collapse... Kurds in the North... Kurdistan with a Med port would work for me. I'll take southern Turkey, too, come to think of it. In exchange, I'd wager they'd deal with PKK and either kill it or moderate it... They've never had it so good and I don't figure they'd want to waste this golden moment in time, thanks to the US - the only major entity who hasn't screwed them, and finally gain a true homeland.

As for Hamas being a govt, I'm not sure they could manage a lemonade stand - unless it also sold AK's from under the counter - I'd buy it if they were very quickly "sponsored" by some "state" with infinitely deep pockets - thinking Mad Mullahs, of course. They'd miss their proxy rather badly, methinks, as it helps diffuse the negative attention. But the MM's will have their hands full soon... I predict they'll be a might distracted.

As for dealing with Hamas / SMB - it's not as if they aren't a major pain in the region already - this should be viewed as an opportunity, methinks, to rub the bitch out - whack the lot. That the MM's would dearly miss them is something like icing on the cake. Just musing aloud, mind you...

So, if Syria collapses... Issue-fest, lol...
1) Hamas / SMB -- and their Mullah sponsors
2) Kurds
3) Alawites, Christians, Druze
4) No more state-sponsored Iraq jihadi support system

I'm thinking a plan could come together...

Posted by .com 2005-09-19 14:47|| 2005-09-19 14:47|| Front Page Top

#9 MB/ Hamas?

Same diff.

If they get in power, we get to bomb the crap out of 'em...

Posted by mojo">mojo 2005-09-19 15:20|| 2005-09-19 15:20|| Front Page Top

#10 Any thoughts on what might happen to all those weapons buried in the Bekaa valley - the ones that where shipped out of Iraq early in the war?

Posted by Tony (UK) 2005-09-19 16:01|| 2005-09-19 16:01|| Front Page Top

#11 historically the Alawites made common cause with the other minorities in Syria, out of common fear of the Sunni majority (the kurds are sunnis, but like in Iraq, are out of the Sunni arab mainstream) Syrian Orthodox, and Kurds, were favored by the regime - Kurds were a weapon against the Turks and Iraqis, Syrian Orthodox and Druze were part of the claim on Lebanon, and for "Greater Syria" in general.

But that was under Daddy Assad, who had real political skill. Baby Assad and associates have really messed things up - theyve managed to alienate the Kurds for sure. And the Lebanese Druze - not sure of the current position of the Syrian Druze. At this point even the Alawites have to be looking to make some kind of deal with the Sunnis, so they dont go down with the regime. Unlike the Sunnis in Iraq, the Alawites are regional pariahs, and would be ill advised to count on winning an insurgency.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-09-19 16:23|| 2005-09-19 16:23|| Front Page Top

#12 for more on all this, see Daniel Pipes "Greater Syria: The History of an Ambition"

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-09-19 16:24|| 2005-09-19 16:24|| Front Page Top

#13 Good stuff, lh - Thx!

Posted by .com 2005-09-19 17:11|| 2005-09-19 17:11|| Front Page Top

#14 I think Walid Jumblat wants a Druzistan and might possibly get it.

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-19 17:29|| 2005-09-19 17:29|| Front Page Top

#15 I think Walid Jumblat wants a Druzistan and might possibly get it.

It certainly has historical precedent. Jebel Druze may rise from the ashes of history once more.

Posted by Secret Master 2005-09-19 18:03|| 2005-09-19 18:03|| Front Page Top

#16 You should wait until I get the lawn chairs out of storage...

I appreciate that, Seafarious. A chair would be helpful when I feel faint from all the excitement. ;-)

Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-19 19:20|| 2005-09-19 19:20|| Front Page Top

#17 The Druze don't believe they should have their own country.

Posted by Paul Moloney 2005-09-19 20:30|| 2005-09-19 20:30|| Front Page Top

#18 I think that you may be correct.

Posted by Secret Master 2005-09-19 20:46|| 2005-09-19 20:46|| Front Page Top

#19 LH said: "From what I gather they have a range of Sunni Islamist opinion, from "moderates" of the Erdogan stripe, all the way to AQ supporters."

What LH should have said: "From what I gather they have a range of Sunni Islamist opinion, from "moderates" who want to drive the Israel into the sea, all the way to AQ supporters who want to drive Israel into the sea until they reach international waters."

Posted by Scott R">Scott R 2005-09-19 21:01|| http://five24.net]">[http://five24.net] 2005-09-19 21:01|| Front Page Top

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