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2005-09-20 Iraq-Jordan
UK fighting Sadr in Basra
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Posted by Dan Darling 2005-09-20 00:23|| || Front Page|| [11133 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 So, please explain to us exactly what the advantages of the nice approach are?
Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2005-09-20 00:33||   2005-09-20 00:33|| Front Page Top

#2 Iran and Sadar are hand in hand. I think thedy need to try the brutal approach now and please start wearing helmets.
Posted by Sock Puppet O´ Doom 2005-09-20 00:43||   2005-09-20 00:43|| Front Page Top

#3 "Though Basra has not suffered the same level of violence as other cities in Iraq -- such as Fallouja, Samarra and the capital -- residents say peace has come at a cost. Armed militiamen rule the streets, enforcing perceived infractions of Islamic law with beatings and even killings, residents say."

This didn't happen overnight... it just came to light overnight. I can't help but wonder...

How widespread is this shit?

WTF were the commanders in this region telling the people at Coalition HQ?

WTF have they been doing down there for the last 2 years?

I truly hate saying it, as I cheered the Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders for their bayonet charge in May '04, but this sounds like an unmitigated fucking disaster. An utter failure of command - fuck the philosophy shit about soft power - this is asinine incompetence at the leadership level. And to think at least one of these jerkoffs went public in the press not long ago trash-mouthing the US commanders for our methods. Arrogant ass. *spit*
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 01:21||   2005-09-20 01:21|| Front Page Top

#4 This is not new at all. Steven Vincent was murdered by these bastards for exposing them. It's been covered by bloggers,especially Iraqi bloggers for quite some time now. I'm sure others here at Rantberg can lend a hand with other sources.
Posted by Red Dog 2005-09-20 01:29||   2005-09-20 01:29|| Front Page Top

#5  Iran has been quietly infiltrating fighters loyal to Sadr and its other proxies into southern Iraq for some time now (as we've noted here) and the UK forces around Basra have been fairly passive about dealing with them up until now.

Remember, these are the same bastards who killed Vincent awhile back because he was one of the few journalists willing to report on their activities.
Posted by Dan Darling">Dan Darling  2005-09-20 01:32|| http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]">[http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 01:32|| Front Page Top

#6 Aw come on, RD - the stories posted here about the militias openly running the South have been, um, spotty - that's a kind way of putting it, at best. And Vincent's murder was only 6 weeks ago, Aug 3, to be precise.

I recall the first story I heard about them was of the group of college kids who were attacked. IIRC, one young man and one young woman were killed while several were injured - and that was about 4-5 months back. That should have gotten the local commanders off their asses, no? When few stories follow, you usually presume remedial action has been undertaken, no?

Regardless of whether it has been covered well, or not, the people on the ground down there knew what was happening.

Utter cock-up and failure of leadership.
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 01:52||   2005-09-20 01:52|| Front Page Top

#7  Oh definitely there's been a screw-up on how we dealt with Sadr and the Brits' tolerance of his activities while letting themselves rebuild. But it's not like this stuff just popped up out of nowhere - see that big Time Magazine primer on Iranian designs in Iraq.
Posted by Dan Darling">Dan Darling  2005-09-20 01:58|| http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]">[http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 01:58|| Front Page Top

#8 And I'm not dismissing Iranian designs on Iraq, though I wouldn't read Time Mag unless it was printed on a beautiful femalian derrière, but openly running the cities is not a covert infiltration. Sheesh. They're gonna have to re-fight the fucking first year after the invasion all over again - if this description of Basra is accurate.
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 02:04||   2005-09-20 02:04|| Front Page Top

#9 Next time someone wants to tell me this is common knowledge, back it up with at least 5 cites of RB stories - or save it. The problem is the fatastic fuck-up in the South, not whether I saw the stories or not.
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 02:07||   2005-09-20 02:07|| Front Page Top

#10  We post it on Rantburg so you don't have to read Time, my good man ;)

My understanding is that the situation in Basra is more Chicago in the 1930s (i.e. mafia-style) rather than any kind of "direct rule" like what we saw in Fallujah and Tal Afar.
Posted by Dan Darling">Dan Darling  2005-09-20 02:08|| http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]">[http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 02:08|| Front Page Top

#11 Utter cock-up and failure of leadership.

this is asinine incompetence at the leadership level. And to think at least one of these jerkoffs went public in the press not long ago trash-mouthing the US commanders for our methods. Arrogant ass. *spit*

point taken on the leadership and laissez-faire policy of the Brit mil governance. The Ayatollahs & Tater Tot will fill any space where there is a power vacumn. They understand force though, which will have to be used openly and covertly.

Vincent's Basra posts started about the 1st of June.

I'll try and hunt up more sources.

Posted by Red Dog 2005-09-20 02:29||   2005-09-20 02:29|| Front Page Top

#12 Did anyone else notice that left wing media sources are reporting that UK forces were engaging Iraqi forces. Someone got it wrong.
Posted by Vlad the Muslim Impaler 2005-09-20 02:35||   2005-09-20 02:35|| Front Page Top

#13 I know a little about this topic. If you have an AO to secure & pacify, then you concoct your strategy and give it a go. If you see it's not working, and there are signs such as a trout in the milk, a village chief wearing his NVA uniform and the local school marm sportin a Ho Chi Minh pin on her jammies, well, you gotta figure your shit's weak. So you double or triple your intel efforts to find WTF is going on. Then, if it turns out you can't "win the peace" with what you got on hand, well, you call for backup. It takes more forces to take an area, initially, than it does to hold it. Overwhelming force is the order of the day in US operations Methodology when faced with an uphill battle. So call HQ, get the team you need, and then you rock and fucking roll right over the bastards. Then your little force can likely maintain that level of security, since you just wasted a shitload of the bad guys, and restart the pacification process. Piece of fucking cake. Ya don't need to go to Sandhurst to figure it out.

Now if you're having to hunt up references to stories on RB about operations in the South, you sorta make my point. A quick compare and contrast finishes it off: I can whip up several hundred for US troops in the last 6 months - hardass operations killing asshats the hard way, house to house. I only asked for 5 - and spotted you two of 'em.

I should feel better after this little rant, but I don't. This is a major fuck-up.
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 02:40||   2005-09-20 02:40|| Front Page Top

#14 Vincent report:
Basra, Iraq — It’s been a little over a year since I was last in Basra, and at first glance little has changed. The buildings are just as dilapidated, livestock still periodically cross the rubble-strewn streets, and the once beautiful canals remain clotted with trash. The heat, too, is the same, although the summertime onslaught of humidity that afflicts this southern port city — situated about 40 kilometers from the Arabian Gulf — is still months away.

“After the elections, the Islamic parties seized control of Basra,” Layla [Layla surived but was shot and left for dead along with Steven] explains. “Now they want to appear more respectable.” Indeed, all but six of the 41 seats on the province’s Governing Council are filled by a cluster of Islamic groups, such as Dawa Islamiyya, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and the up-and-coming Fadillah party — affiliated with Moqtada al al-Sadr — which scored a coup when one of its members became the provincial governor [Basra provincial governor Mohammad Al Wa'ili] ....[snip]

Another change is the number of abiyas you see around town. As the religious parties flex their muscles, their various sheikhs and imams exert a steady, if unlegislated, pressure on women to cover themselves in hejab. Layla once wore Western-style clothing and a scarf; now she has to add a thin black tunic to appease Basra’s guardians of female virtue. “If you don’t abide by their wishes, they will harass you on the street — or worse,” she complains.

“ This has become an Iranian city,” contends Salaam Wendy, a Basra native who recently returned to his hometown for the first time since he fled to Canada in 1986. “In the ’70s and ’80s, you used to find bars, nightclubs, casinos — and no women wore hejab. Today, you can’t even find secular books or music CDs, the religious parties have such control of the city. This isn’t the place I remember.”

The shadow of religious fundamentalism falls across other areas, too. Take, for instance, Basra Province’s “elected” council, the first such body in the long history of the region. I put “elected” in quotes in deference to the cynicism of numerous Iraqis, who claim that the religious parties fixed the balloting: One young man who acted as a poll-watcher on January 30 told me how he saw party members direct voters to cast their ballots for the United Iraqi Alliance slate of Islamic candidates. The result is that many members of the Governing Council are party hacks with zero concept of democracy. Recently, I attended a workshop organized by the Research Triangle Institute, an American NGO. Ostensibly an all-day seminar in democratic principles, the program instead stressed simple, almost childlike concepts such as “understand that you are useful,” “be aware of your skills,” “compromise,” and — rather alarming, I thought — “be calm when you lose.” Alexis de Tocqueville this wasn’t.

“Before the elections, the Governing Council was appointed by educated elites who chose capable people,” former Basra governor Hassan Alrashidi griped to me at the meeting. “The elections have brought in people whose main qualifications are their loyalty to the religious parties.” [snip]

NRO
Posted by Red Dog 2005-09-20 03:17||   2005-09-20 03:17|| Front Page Top

#15 whoops on the bold
Posted by Red Dog 2005-09-20 03:19||   2005-09-20 03:19|| Front Page Top

#16 The link would've been fine. Better yet, the RB story link to it... What, wasn't it posted on RB? I see... Do you? Did you read what I wrote?

This story makes my point - it's a major fuck-up. It sounds like the South is a province of Iran - not the relatively secure place that a lack of stories about actions indicates. I never even knew the Vincent guy existed until the story of his death. You imply you did - and read posts such as this. Why not post such great info on RB?
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 03:29||   2005-09-20 03:29|| Front Page Top

#17 I'm not going to defend the Brits, but try to justify their position. The local government is democratically elected. The objective should be to pacify the area, not to impose a particular form of government. Basra was quiet until recently. The fact the local police etc. are hopelessly infiltrated is not an issue for the Brits unless they challenge their authority. Eventually the central government needs to address the situation in Basra, but getting the Sunni terrorism situation under control must be job one. The last thing the central government wants is a fighting in the Shiia areas.

One final thing is these soldiers were under cover probably keeping someone under observation. Its a technique they developed over many years in N. Ireland. In Basra its almost certain they were keeping a Shiia extremist under observation. It could be that were 'made' and their target sicced the cops on them.
Posted by phil_b 2005-09-20 04:48||   2005-09-20 04:48|| Front Page Top

#18 Weak shit it what this is. We have been given to believe that every thing was wonderful in the south. I really don't care who is in charge but they should be on the next plane home. This "soft power" bull shit will get you run over by a D-11 in this part of the world. This shows that it's totaly true and was a known fact that some fool though he could disprove. Seeing a picture of a Tommy balling his tank and him on fire makes my blood boil. Someone needs a shit pounding and a one way trip home.
Posted by Sock Puppet O´ Doom 2005-09-20 04:57||   2005-09-20 04:57|| Front Page Top

#19 Quite, SPoD. Looks like we need to double/triple the numbers in Basra and go after these mooks. Seems we got rid of one form of despotism only to allow it to be replaced by another.. clearly the sky will fall on your head brigade are in charge at the moment.. not for long one hopes..
Posted by Howard UK 2005-09-20 05:13||   2005-09-20 05:13|| Front Page Top

#20 Sending a tank to break down a wall and rescue their men is hardly a wimpy response.
Posted by phil_b 2005-09-20 06:08||   2005-09-20 06:08|| Front Page Top

#21 That it should come to that, after 2 years of supposed co-operation and training, is really quite something.
Posted by Howard UK 2005-09-20 06:31||   2005-09-20 06:31|| Front Page Top

#22 I agree w/ .com. The Brits have been openly critical of the US approach, while allowing Basra to become a bastion of Iranian-sponsored thuggery.

"democratically elected" means nothing if those elections come after the thugs have been killing and intimidating people for months. Which has been the case. Sadr backed down only when the US moved against his forces in Baghdad last year. He never backed down in the south because the Brits refused to make him. This is the result.
Posted by lotp 2005-09-20 07:36||   2005-09-20 07:36|| Front Page Top

#23 I think we've been given a live re-enactment of exactly how the "British Approach" to things lost them their empire. This is nothing more than a continuation of the last 100 years of British "rule".

I'm not surprised at any of this.
Posted by Laurence of the Rats">Laurence of the Rats  2005-09-20 09:08|| http://www.punictreachery.com/]">[http://www.punictreachery.com/]  2005-09-20 09:08|| Front Page Top

#24 The militias have also infiltrated the police, taking orders from clerics instead of commanders
(please excuse me if my understanding isn't what it should be. I'm trying to get up to speed)
I can see this grow into more headaches. So here we have the militia's taking over the Iraqi police? (are the Iraqi police set apart from the Iraqi trained troops?) If they can be swayed so easily, we should keep some of our guys embedded with them shouldn't we to make sure this sort of thing doesn't happen. Seems the militia can be bought off too, not just the religious bent.
Posted by Jan 2005-09-20 09:09||   2005-09-20 09:09|| Front Page Top

#25 Is this activity contained to the urban and suburban center or has it taken root in the countryside further south?

Can a pacification operation be contained to the urban areas?

Do you like coffee with your napalm?

Those are the only three questions I've got regarding Basra. Tater ain't seen real kaboom.

Real kaboom make Basra go bye bye.
Tater go bye bye too.

CE
Posted by Crert Ebbereck6495 2005-09-20 09:30||   2005-09-20 09:30|| Front Page Top

#26 Looks like us British forces need to cut the 'peace keeping' crap and start RETURNING fire instead of just hoping these guys will just go away. Incidently did the Warrior vehicle caught up in the fire stew yesterday launch any smoke screen around it - if not why not? that woulda kept the Orcs i'd thought. As for the whole bit about our 2 guys getting caught by the iraqi police i say first how could this be - the media tell us iraqi police/troops havent been trained yet?? Well i guess they are pretty good after all and have been well trained seeing as they rather embarresingly caught our 2 guys. Second what the hell happened for us too go and knock the fcking jail walls down, surly a pure failure of any sort of reasoning or attempts to negotiate these 2 guys back. Seems incredably harmfull thing for us too do and i can be absolutly 100% sure that if American commanders took the decision to knock the jail walls down the condemnation would be going for months if not years for it/ why the double standards?? oh and another point where the fck was our guys air support - surly we have our own organic air supportor are we hoping uncle sam will provide it?? This event was a disaster and the Arab media will play us off for fckin chumps who are frightened to fight back, watch Zark move south as he sees what an easy picking us Brits are when compared to the Americans. Sorry to anyone i may have offended with this post but we Brits need to sort our forces out and soon.This is the reason people like myself wont join our lame army - its all talk and bravado about 'were the best' buts its outa date bull, now if i could join the US Army that'd rock! ROE that don't work against the soldiers.And again where where the fckin smoke dischargers??? Angry.
Posted by ShepUK 2005-09-20 09:44||   2005-09-20 09:44|| Front Page Top

#27 SOD -- Gotta complete the unholy alliance "Zarq-Tater-Iran-Saddamites"
Posted by Captain America 2005-09-20 09:53||   2005-09-20 09:53|| Front Page Top

#28 This is what happens when you do not come down with overwhelming force, like .com sez. People like Tater need to be initially slammed. We play pussyfoot with hard cases like Tater and this is what we reap. You cannot reason with thugs. But they do understand power and their cads understand about dirt naps when their leaders take them.
Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul  2005-09-20 10:41||   2005-09-20 10:41|| Front Page Top

#29 i dont blame the brits. Weve been doing plenty of ops, but NOT in Sadr city, which has been effectively conceded to Sadr as long as played nice. Basically the coalition has been pursuing a Sunni first strategy, and leaving sadr alone, since August of 2004. This was useful in getting the political process going.

The tradeoff was the mess in BAsra.

What changes now?

1. The situation in Basra is SO Bad, they had to deal with it.
2.The sunni insurgency is finally on the run (pace the MSM) and now its finally possible to take on Sadr

or perhaps a bit of each.
Posted by liberalhawk 2005-09-20 10:45||   2005-09-20 10:45|| Front Page Top

#30 We need to send Mayor Nagin over there to sort things out.
Posted by Matt 2005-09-20 11:12||   2005-09-20 11:12|| Front Page Top

#31 lol matt
Posted by Jan 2005-09-20 11:14||   2005-09-20 11:14|| Front Page Top

#32 lh - I feel the love. It's crap, of course, but really nice crap.
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 11:33||   2005-09-20 11:33|| Front Page Top

#33 Yep, .com's 100% right--this is pretty serious if, in a once cosmopolitan city:

Armed militiamen rule the streets.

Armed militiamen enforce perceived infractions of Islamic law with beatings and killings.

Women no longer can go unveiled on the streets.

Physicians have been beaten for treating female patients.

The militias have also infiltrated the (13,000-strong force) police.

The militias take orders from clerics instead of commanders.

Voter intimidation is rampant, unchecked.

The worst part is that they ARE gonna have to go back and deal with this. I'm not for hooting "quagmire," but this looks like the real thing to me this time.

What the West cannot, but must, understand, is that the Islamics understand and react to one thing only: P-O-W-E-R. You have to make them do what you want, no exceptions, no mercy, which goes against the grain for us. But that's how it is there, with those type of people. So, how many years decades, do you think, will it take for the West to accept and then deal with the cultural phenomenon/reality of the Islamic world? And will the West be willing to take decisive action, regardless of world opinion (since that's what it's going to take to end this)?

Ain't never gonna happen, IMO. I'm wondering if we should pack up and go home. Opinions?
Posted by ex-lib 2005-09-20 12:55||   2005-09-20 12:55|| Front Page Top

#34 "Zarq Promises Not to Fight Tater"; the other shoe?
Posted by Whiskey Mike 2005-09-20 13:01||   2005-09-20 13:01|| Front Page Top

#35 what evidence is there that Centcom wanted to crack down on Sadr, but the Brits refused? AFAICT the decision to look the otherway was NOT a matter of controversy between US and UK forces.
Posted by liberalhawk 2005-09-20 13:02||   2005-09-20 13:02|| Front Page Top

#36 something else about them killing journalists
Posted by ex-lib 2005-09-20 13:17||   2005-09-20 13:17|| Front Page Top

#37 It won't end until the problem in confronted directly and with constant superior force. It should have started a long time ago. Letting the rats freerange across the city of Basra and infiltrate government means normal folks are going to think twice before they even think about trying to stop it. Monday they would have done well, after fair warning of course, to start by opening up on the petrol bottle throwers and would be Warrior climbers the moment they showed the slightest indication of their intentions. There's no point in a show of force that is impotent under those circumstances. It only makes them bolder.
Posted by MunkarKat 2005-09-20 13:19||   2005-09-20 13:19|| Front Page Top

#38 LH: Weve been doing plenty of ops, but NOT in Sadr city, which has been effectively conceded to Sadr as long as played nice.

The playing nice part is demonstrably false. American forces have killed hundreds of Sadr's men in Sadr City. The following was just one incident: Meanwhile, US forces killed more than 50 Shia militiamen on Wednesday in a significant advance into a Baghdad suburb that is a powerbase of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, the military said.

The forces, backed by tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles, advanced some 2.5km into Sadr City, a slum of two million mainly Shia inhabitants, meeting sporadic resistance. A US officer said soldiers killed “slightly over” 50 Iraqis identified as firing upon the advancing forces. There was no immediate independent confirmation of the death toll.
Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei  2005-09-20 14:32|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 14:32|| Front Page Top

#39 We had a very similar discussion after Vincent was killed.

Posted by Rory B. Bellows 2005-09-20 14:34||   2005-09-20 14:34|| Front Page Top

#40 Where there is no choice, there is no freedom. Where there is no freedom there is no democracy. Therefore, where there is Islam there will be no democracy. Muslims live in social, economic, intellectual, and religious poverty. All Islam has ever been able to breed is tyranny and terror. You have dragged Americans into a lose-lose situation in Iraq. If we stay, they will murder many more good men in the name of Allah. And there is no rational hope for success so long as Islam endures. If we leave, there will be civil war between Islamic factions.
In Basra or Baghdad THERE WILL BE NO VICTORY
Posted by Craig Winn 2005-09-20 15:42||   2005-09-20 15:42|| Front Page Top

#41 Craig Winn? THE Craig Winn? Lol.

Opinion (based upon what, is just a tad unclear) noted. Thank you so much for your pithy input. We'll all commit quagmire suicide immediately. Trust us.
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 15:48||   2005-09-20 15:48|| Front Page Top

#42 .com
My point is softly softly or going in hard US style will not stop the inevitable. We will not install democracy.

Iraqis will elect a Shi’ite government and they will impose an Islamic state. The Suni’s will fight them and America will be caught in the middle of a civil war. It will be like Vietnam all over again.

Under Islamic law and unified with Iran, Iraq will become what it was not—a clear and present danger to America. We will have set our actual enemy and the enemy of freedom on the throne. And we will have squandered American prestige and wasted thousands of American lives and billions of dollars in the process.

As in the case of Vietnam where we allowed Americans to die until we had achieved “peace with honor,” so it will be in Iraq. The peace accords were of no value because the signatories did not share our values. The Communists ignored the document and imposed their will on the people. It was as if we had never been there.

Muslims, like Communists, do not honor treaties. The Qur’an says that any treaty between a Muslim and a non-Muslim is not binding on the Muslim. Muhammad used this tactic when he had too insufficient a force to invade and control his hometown-Mecca. He signed the peace treaty of Hudibyah in which he agreed not to fight with, rob, or terrorize Mecca for ten years. The following year, with 10,000 men carrying swords and spears, he returned and conquered them—imposing Islamic law. Throughout his career, Muhammad authorized lying to achieve his means. It is why he is noted for saying: “I have been made victorious with terror,” and “war is deception.”

Sad to say, but our engagement in Iraq will end just like Vietnam. The only question is: how many will die before we declare victory and leave?

Posted by Craig Winn 2005-09-20 16:04||   2005-09-20 16:04|| Front Page Top

#43 Well, there it is. All of the years of blather swept away in a no-wiggle-room declaration of the future.

Thank you. You are omniscient.
Posted by .com 2005-09-20 16:20||   2005-09-20 16:20|| Front Page Top

#44 Shep you can join the US army. That is unless it's not lawful in your home country if you do. I would ratehr you join the US Marines however. (Ducks and runs like hell.)
Posted by Sock Puppet O´ Doom 2005-09-20 16:30||   2005-09-20 16:30|| Front Page Top

#45 For democracy to prevail, even a republic to succeed, the voters need to be enlightened and responsible. And they need to cherish the virtues which nurture education, freedom, and choice. Does this sound like present day Iraq? Do you honestly beleive we can turn it into post WW2 Japan? with Islam as part of the Iraqi constitution? omniscient No. travelled to the region yes, know the people yes. know islam Yes

Posted by Craig Winn 2005-09-20 16:33||   2005-09-20 16:33|| Front Page Top

#46 Only one problem CW. Iraq is not Vietnam. It's very different in many important ways. Only a fool, liar, or idiot would suggest otherwise. Given that, it will never end "like vietnam" for us or the iraqis. Can't tell you the exact future but I can assure you of that buddy. Anypart of that you don't understand?
Posted by MunkatKat 2005-09-20 16:34||   2005-09-20 16:34|| Front Page Top

#47 Munka read caption 45. Any part of that you dont understand?
Posted by Craig Winn 2005-09-20 16:43||   2005-09-20 16:43|| Front Page Top

#48 SPOD: Shep you can join the US army.

Actually, he can't. The only non-citizens who can are green card holders (permanent residents) and Filipinos (a special dispensation from the time that the Philippines was a US territory).
Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei  2005-09-20 16:53|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 16:53|| Front Page Top

#49 .com et all,

I, as you are, am surprised the Brits let this situation get to this point. While all of us knew Tater Sadr was a residual problem, many including myself in recent weeks assumed he had been pacified beyond this point.

And yes, ZF, I am including those times we had to wax his Mahdi militia and when the Badr brigades and Tater's forces were engaged in sporadic fighting only last week. I thought he might play nice for a little longer, especially since he's looked so weak since Fallujah.

Hell, two days ago I was rethinking my position on allowing his dumb ass to live after Fallujah, as he was playing ball, specifically in regard to condemning Zarqawi.

But no dice, obviously it isn't enough that we give him his ghetto feifdom, he wants the whole ball of wax.

Or is this just the Iranian Red Guard stirring up trouble in their continuing destabilization efforts?

My limited perpective calls both very likely.

Sadr's control over his militia is the wildcard factor I'd like to know specifics on, as would many I'm sure.

Does he have operational and on the ground control as the MSM makes it appear, or just riding the whirlwind that the Iranians continually fuel?

I don't know how sophisticated his counter intel is either, but I am betting that these two British agents were watchin him and his Iranian buddies cohabitate, and the Iranians felt the eyes on their backs.

Perhaps that's why the Brits had to fetch the boys so quickly, loss of intel to the Iranians would have been 10x worse than this small loss of face in the MSM.

Maybe, all speculation.

I do wonder how this connects back to Vincent's assasination. I assumed the Badr Brigades did that dirty work to cover executions of Sunnis and Baathists, but it looks more like Sadr's kids at this point.

I thought that Rory Fellow's reference to our discussions following Vincent's murder was very accurate, in that we had this discussion then.

Note my and many others' comments re: Iranian influence in Shiia Iraq in that thread. Oh, and thanks Phil B, I never saw your response to that posting until today, point taken.

.com, I have gathered from recent postings that you have the point of view that the Iraqi Shiia as a whole would likely not bow to a Iranian/Persian rule, but...

Sadr, Sistani, Chalabi and the like would sell their children's souls to rule a cesspool, much less a nation so strategic and rich with oil, and they would give away the shop to assure themselves and their tribes' continued wealth and influence with or without the average Iraqi's knowledge/coalescence.

However, I think Mr. Winn is inaccurate in a Vietnam modeling of the Iraqi conflict. Different beast and all, remember Mr. Winn, there are many more factions at play here, and no outcome is certain. And, is an American modeled democracy our only and end goal, perhaps, perhaps not. We could settle for less, and maintain a "democracy" to a lesser degree long enough to get some things done to our liking. We do have other, equally important strategic goals in mind. But your point is taken.

However, again, IMVHO, Civil War is not only imminent, it is present in much of Iraq today.

That is the biggest threat to American designs in Iraq, and Zarq knows it, and has preached it for a long time. We all remember his letter to Binny.He is bringing that nightmare along nicely I'd say.

Sadr is a problem, but in the end I think he is just a small and insignificant player, and he will soon die like his father at the hands of a Sunni, regardless of Zarq's supposed alliances.

Let's hope a more moderate force at least fills his vaccuum rather than the Iranians, as I fear will likely or has already happened.

Good discussion though, Somebody tell Fred this is why I come back to RB every day.

EP
Posted by ElvisHasLeftTheBuilding 2005-09-20 16:58||   2005-09-20 16:58|| Front Page Top

#50 The first article of the Iraqi Constitution says: “No law may be established that is counter to the sacred religion of Islam.” That means it will be a tyranny and that they will be terrorists. Elvis I think you have missed the point comparing the conflicts. I concentrated on the end result, that is all.....
Posted by Craig Winn 2005-09-20 17:31||   2005-09-20 17:31|| Front Page Top

#51 That doesn't sound right, Zhang Fe. What about all those illegal immigrants who join, then are sworn in while based in Iraq and other distant places?

Mr. Winn, we've been wrestling with this issue for a while. This time around we cannot pull a Vietnam "peace with honour," else in the end your daughters will be wearing the burqa and mine will have been raped to death in front of their father. You are not the only one who has spent time in that part of the world, or with Arabs/Iraqis/Muslims. .com lived there for years as a senior-ish programmer for one of the oil companies (.com, I'm afraid I never memorized your resume', figuring if I needed to know something about your history you'd be able to tell me), my own husband spent the better part of a decade developing products and starting up manufacturing facilities in the region (the Indians were shocked that he could read Urdu, but apparently it's just Arabic with another funny accent), a few of our correspondents only left the region when AQ/SA started attacking foreign business offices and compounds. Mr. Winn, sir, what is your expertise to make such pronouncements as you make here today?
Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-20 17:35||   2005-09-20 17:35|| Front Page Top

#52 EHLTB: However, again, IMVHO, Civil War is not only imminent, it is present in much of Iraq today. That is the biggest threat to American designs in Iraq, and Zarq knows it, and has preached it for a long time. We all remember his letter to Binny.He is bringing that nightmare along nicely I'd say.

I think civil war is the worst thing that could happen to Zarqawi. Sunni Arabs are outnumbered 4 to 1. Kurds and Shiites hold the purse strings, because they control the oil. If there's a civil war, Sunnis will get massacred. What Zarqawi is trying to achieve isn't civil war, it's submission.

He is like a kidnapper slaughtering his hostages one by one, hoping that their loved ones will submit to his demands rather than see them die*. What he is doing isn't all that different from what Saddam did - attempt to compel submission via murderous rampages. The problem for Zarqawi is that his enemy is better financed and armed than Saddam's opposition ever was. In a war of attrition, Zarqawi can only lose. In a civil war, Zarqawi's supporters would be massacred.

* It's nothing particularly new - standard operating procedure for organized crime.
Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei  2005-09-20 17:39|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 17:39|| Front Page Top

#53 Elvis, dear, this kind of discussion is why Fred keeps this website instead of just talking about stuff with a few of his also-retired military analyst friends (besides, I think he enjoys the snarks -- I know I do).
Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-20 17:40||   2005-09-20 17:40|| Front Page Top

#54 TW: That doesn't sound right, Zhang Fe. What about all those illegal immigrants who join, then are sworn in while based in Iraq and other distant places?

The people who are sworn in are green card holders, not illegal immigrants. Illegal immigrants generally get discharged and deported.
Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei  2005-09-20 17:41|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 17:41|| Front Page Top

#55 TW
I wanted to know why Muslim militants were killing us. So I went off to Ground Zero for Islamic terror—Israel. I arranged to meet with the terrorists themselves. I asked members of al-Qaeda, Islamic Jihad, al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, and Hamas why they were killing us. They said, “Islam. We are following Muhammad’s orders.”

Posted by Craig Winn 2005-09-20 17:46||   2005-09-20 17:46|| Front Page Top

#56 ZF,

Civil war isn't the endgame of course, but a path to Zarq'a liking nonetheless.

EP
Posted by ElvisHasLeftTheBuilding 2005-09-20 17:47||   2005-09-20 17:47|| Front Page Top

#57 We know that, Mr. Winn. They've been saying that for decades. But the PLO and its handmaidens have been at war with the West in their own little way for even longer, and they are/were pan-Arab Nationalist (ie secular fascist) in outlook. My father was fighting that in the 1930s and'40s. What else can you bring to the table?
Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-20 17:51||   2005-09-20 17:51|| Front Page Top

#58 EHLTB: Civil war isn't the endgame of course, but a path to Zarq'a liking nonetheless.

You're thinking of civil war as being like a Chinese fire drill, with everyone getting in everybody else's way. Actual civil war would involve Shiites and Kurds systematically wiping out the Sunni population, much as the Sunnis used to employ these tactics against both Shiites and Kurds. This would definitely mean the end of Zarqawi and all his followers - a lot of innocent Sunnis would get caught up in the violence - but the end of Sunni terrorism.
Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei  2005-09-20 17:51|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 17:51|| Front Page Top

#59 That last sounds right to me, ZF. But despite all his loudmouthery, I do believe Zarqawi is counting on Coalition forces to protect his Sunni innocents while he gets on with killing his opponents. His connection with reality being no better than others of his ilk...
Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-20 17:54||   2005-09-20 17:54|| Front Page Top

#60 TW
I spent 10000 hrs plus studying the Hadith Collections of Ishaq, Tabari, Bukhari, and Muslim contain all that is known about Muhammad and his formation of Islam and wrote 3 books enough on the table?
Posted by Craig Winn 2005-09-20 18:00||   2005-09-20 18:00|| Front Page Top

#61 Within a year the Civil War Quagmire would be replaced by the Ethnic Cleansing of Sunnis in the MSM.
Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-09-20 18:05||   2005-09-20 18:05|| Front Page Top

#62 Right back to the real world, gotta catch Man U V Liverpool replay. Enjoyed the prophet of doom discussion kids stop taking it all so seriously! I was only messin with yer. Laterz Craig....
Posted by Craig Winn 2005-09-20 18:20||   2005-09-20 18:20|| Front Page Top

#63 I hope you got satisfaction from your studies, Mr. Winn, I wish I had the energy for such things. However, its usefulness in terms of predicting real-world outcomes in modern Muslim countries -- even Saudi Arabia -- is about as much as using the New Testament to predict the behaviour of England (within the Great Britain entity), or the Torah to predict the behaviour of Israel... or even American Jews of any shade of religiosity. Not to mention that the concept of taqiyah means one can't necessarily trust the answers one gets from one's more or less charming Palestinian-Muslim interlocutors.
Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-20 18:43||   2005-09-20 18:43|| Front Page Top

#64 Mr. Winn, I assume you also have read Bat Yeor on dhimmitude, and Rantburg's own savants Dan Darling and Paul Maloney? (Dan has had a couple of very interesting internships, and a great many published articles on the current machinations in the MidEast, Paul seems to be specializing in the Muslims of the Indian Subcontinent.) And of course, young Edward Yee, who has interesting thoughts about everything.

I, on the other hand, am merely the wife of a man who so far has spent about as much time abroad in various more or less exotic places as he has at home here in the Mid-West of America, but I've listened wide eyed to his tales, and enjoyed entertaining the nicer of his friends and colleagues at my table. And I did make a home for Mr. Wife across the ocean for a few years, where one of our children was born. (Hence the nom-de-web ;-] ) I am considered an amateur in the Rantburg crowd, but then, I've never been ought but a civilian.
Posted by trailing wife 2005-09-20 18:58||   2005-09-20 18:58|| Front Page Top

#65 The really sad part is that .com, OP, I (and others) were predicting this outcome with regards to Tater, I dunno, back in the summer of 2003. Not that anyone listens to us loudmouths, but it still rankles.
Posted by 11A5S 2005-09-20 22:22||   2005-09-20 22:22|| Front Page Top

#66 When Tater opened his mouth the military should have put a bullet in his head.
Posted by djohn66 2005-09-20 22:59||   2005-09-20 22:59|| Front Page Top

#67 11A5S: The really sad part is that .com, OP, I (and others) were predicting this outcome with regards to Tater, I dunno, back in the summer of 2003.

As I said earlier, I think Sadr is more valuable to us alive than dead. He got hundreds of his people killed without much apparent damage to American troops. Zarqawi we want dead, because he gets GI's and hundreds of innocent Iraqis killed. Killing Sadr won't end the movement and it would be hard to find a Shiite rebel leader more incompetent than him. The problem isn't that he's still alive - the problem is that despite Sadr's incompetence and military weakness, British forces let his people take over Basra.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-20 23:19|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2005-09-20 23:19|| Front Page Top

#68 ZF: Let's take the logic a little further. If Tater is so incompetent, why hasn't some Shiite Zarqawi or Lenin come along and taken him down and seized his mantle? After all, Tater's been shamed many a time by the kafirs already, and that is about the greatest sin that you can commit as an Arab, right? I mean its the whole shame/honor thing. I would argue that this means there is no Shia wolf waiting to be sucked into the power vaccuum that killing Tater would leave.

In general, I've never believed in the power vaccum theory, anyway. You kill Lenin and Trotsky in September of 1917, and Kamenev and Zinoviev don't transmute into killers. They compromise with the Mensheviks and the Right SRs and the Russian revolution takes a very different path. There aren't 1000 bin Ladens. There's one. Functional psychopaths are rare. I've met a couple of them face to face in my life (one coincidentally nicknamed Tater). Functional psychopaths who have good organizational skills, ambition, intelligence, charisma, and _some_ brake on their egos are vanishingly rare.
Posted by 11A5S 2005-09-20 23:55||   2005-09-20 23:55|| Front Page Top

00:04 JosephMendiola
23:55 11A5S
23:50 JosephMendiola
23:19 Zhang Fei
23:11 Frank G
23:10 Frank G
22:59 djohn66
22:59 Frank G
22:58 JosephMendiola
22:54 DMFD
22:52 Lil Kimmy
22:44 Floluting Spang8699
22:39 phil_b
22:37 Frank G
22:27 Floluting Spang8699
22:26 JosephMendiola
22:26 Floluting Spang8699
22:25 Barbara Skolaut
22:25 Floluting Spang8699
22:22 11A5S
22:08 Jeamble Thomock3895
22:07 thibaud (aka lex)
22:05 JosephMendiola
22:04 Alaska Paul









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