Article

2006-03-03 Southeast Asia

Suspected bird flu cases on rise across the country

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2006-03-03 08:57|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 In Bandung, the number of suspected bird flu patients rose by 11 to 66

My comments got lost due to stuff. I made the point that Bandung is where the first cases of human bird flu occured in Indonesia and the current rate of ongoing infections strongly indicates to me we have sustained transmission, which means the pandemic has started here.

Whether it can be stopped is an interesting question that given time, I will say more on later.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-03-03 09:21|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-03-03 09:21|| Front Page Top

#2 I project the first official outbreak will work much like this:

First of all, about 25-100 people will all come down with the flu at once. The official response, good, bad, or indifferent will *seem* to work, with no new cases and much rejoicing that "we have stopped the spread" of the disease.

Then, within a short time, a smaller number of people will come down with the disease outside of the original infection area. These cases will be incorrectly put down to "ones we missed", and the sense of relief will still be there.

And then, much further outside the original infection area, there will be several outbreaks, all seemingly unconnected to each other. And then the explosive growth of the disease starts to happen in earnest.

Every control measure taken will be "a day late and a dollar short". The local region will be quarantined only after it has spread through the country. The country will be quarantined only after it has spread to several adjacent countries, etc.

Avian flu will give us some "special effects", too. That is, even though we will be focused on the sick people, entire nation's supplies of poultry could be wiped out--their major source of protein. Starve or risk the flu?

Other domestic animals, such as dogs and cats, are everywhere in the world and spread out among the human population. If the disease also affects them, the human-animal transfer could intensify the spread of the disease enormously.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-03-03 10:05|| 2006-03-03 10:05|| Front Page Top

#3
"...entire nation's supplies of poultry could be wiped out--their major source of protein. Starve or risk the flu?"

Well...the folks in the PI with the worm problems can always market their worm meat!

Posted by Vinkat Bala Subrumanian 2006-03-03 16:06|| 2006-03-03 16:06|| Front Page Top

#4 If the disease also affects them

At least one cat has been diagnosed with the avian flu HN51 in France already.

Posted by lotp 2006-03-03 16:15|| 2006-03-03 16:15|| Front Page Top

#5 11 to 66 does not a pandemic make, phil_b, especially when most of them have had bird contact to an extent that most people never do.

Posted by Darrell 2006-03-03 16:27|| 2006-03-03 16:27|| Front Page Top

#6 The issue is, how will the pandemic start? Will it start with a big cluster of cases as Moose suggests or will it start slowly with an almost imperceptable increase in cases over time?

I think the latter, primarily because I think there are multiple changes the virus has to acquire in order to transmit efficiently in humans. One prominent virologist estimated 25 genetic changes are required for efficient transmission in humans. I know enough about evolution to know that the bulk of those changes can only be acquired through infecting people and are only retained (in the gene pool) if (once) sustained transmission occurs.

So until sustained transmission occurs all we have is a series of isolated bird to human infections and short chains of H2H transmission. Once sustained transmission occurs and we will see a steadyly increasing cluster (and then clusters). How fast the cluster increases depends on how many of those adaptations the virus has acquired. Initially, it will just have enough adaptations to maintain sustained transmission (RO just over 1) and we will see a slow increase in cases in the cluster, which is what we are seeing in Bandung.

How long it takes before we get efficient transmission and rapid spread is anyone's guess, but the 1918 pandemic indicates 1 to 2 years.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-03-03 17:26|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-03-03 17:26|| Front Page Top

#7 could be Phil B, but just as intercontinental jet travel will expose people much more rapidly, we've all been exposed to bacteria and viruses that our ancestors (at least Cont. U.S.) would NEVER have been exposed to. We have antibodies for things which will never naturally occur where we now reside. I'm hoping the outbreak will be short, like you, I'm sure. Could be a real bitch in Indonesia, Burma, China, et al....

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-03-03 17:58|| 2006-03-03 17:58|| Front Page Top

#8 Frank, I've thought a lot about this and much of what you read is politically correct drivel.

In a nutshell, I think even when we have thousands of cases a day, its still containable. However, whether it is contained or not will depend on local factors.

The case in Batam caught my attention. Batam is a 45 minute ferry ride from Singapore and several thousand people cross a day. If anywhere can contain an infectious H2H bird flu outbreak, Singapore can. So watch what happens when there is an outbreak there.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-03-03 18:11|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-03-03 18:11|| Front Page Top

#9 lol - that's the FIRST time I've ever been accused of being Politically Correct

*slap* Slap*

I'll see you at dawn, sir. Bring a second

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-03-03 18:32|| 2006-03-03 18:32|| Front Page Top

#10 Frank, I wasn't accusing you of being PC. Rather its the idea that once the pandemic starts we are all equally at risk is PC nonsense. Without going into a long complex explanation. Containment measures are additive and the number of cases in an area is a direct function of how effective the local containment measures are. The key variables are how effective the government is and how 'public spirited' the citizens are.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-03-03 19:30|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-03-03 19:30|| Front Page Top

23:57 Fred
23:56 JosephMendiola
23:55 DMFD
23:47 JosephMendiola
23:45 DMFD
23:32 RD
23:23 JosephMendiola
23:18 Anonymoose
23:16 USN Ret.
23:15 Listen To Dogs
23:06 Frank G
23:04 Frank G
23:00 Anonymoose
22:59 Listen To Dogs
22:53 N guard
22:48 .com
22:45 3dc
22:43 3dc
22:41 3dc
22:39 3dc
22:21 .com
22:02 Anonymoose
21:58 mag44_vaquero
21:57 Xenophon