Article

2007-03-15 Southeast Asia

Curfew imposed after minibus attack in Thai south

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Posted by Steve 2007-03-15 10:16|| || Front Page|| [8 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I don't see what the Thais are going to do about this.

Geography is a cruel mistress and it works against the Thais. The three southern provinces have long borders with Malaysia, and those borders are rugged, indefensible and porous. I don't see how the Thais are going to stop an insurgency with the usual curfews, sweeps, arrests, etc. The people in the south have the same ethnicity and religion as the Malays. This isn't going to end well.

Two potential solutions:

1) throw all the Muslims out of the south. That wouldn't go over well internationally and it could provoke a war with Malaysia. Other Muslim states (e.g., Indonesia) could jump in, and that in turn could threaten Singapore. The Thais have a decent army but I don't know that they could whup the Malays.

2) write the south off. Declare it independent or sign a treaty with Malaysia. Then build a big friggin' wall on the new border, which would be very short, and make clear that a Malay Muslim north of the wall will be regarded with great suspicion.

If there's another option for the Thais I'd love to hear it.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2007-03-15 10:38|| 2007-03-15 10:38|| Front Page Top

#2 3. Work WITH the Malaysian govt, which may not share my views on Israel, but AFAIK opposed AQ and wants peace with Thailand. Compromise on legitimate grievances of the southerners, to undercut support for the rebels. And then kill, clear, and hold against the rebels. Dont know if that will work - the big question is do the southerners really want independence, or are they just riled up for legitimate or semi-legitimate reasons.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-03-15 10:41|| 2007-03-15 10:41|| Front Page Top

#3 Janjaweed, Dr. Steve.

Posted by ed 2007-03-15 11:22|| 2007-03-15 11:22|| Front Page Top

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