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2007-03-29 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

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Posted by Fred 2007-03-29 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Boy howdy, this is sure to make ~~Ras~~Putin rethink his drink when it comes to assisting Iran's nuclear aspirations. Right? After all, the Beslan atrocity must have driven home this point already. Right? Right ... ?

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-03-29 03:02|| 2007-03-29 03:02|| Front Page Top

#2 Zen, pooty is, at the moment, triangulating. Don't disturb his triangles! ;-)

Posted by twobyfour 2007-03-29 03:08|| 2007-03-29 03:08|| Front Page Top

#3 pooty is, at the moment, triangulating

We'll square ~~Ras~~Putin's triangulation. Bet on it!

Worst of all (besides Western spinelessness), is how easy the task at hand is. Russia's economic fragility is second only to the OPEC nations' (or China's). Needless to say (then why say it?), all of them need to be smashed.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-03-29 03:20|| 2007-03-29 03:20|| Front Page Top

#4 Zen, not sure smashing's necessary. Yes, pooty pises me of with his triangulations as well.

But the fact is that Russia is dying out so this state of affairs is only temporary. And by this fact of population shrinkage, it is on a collision course with China. The moment the decline of population will reflect in almost non-inhabited Sibiria, China is on the move for grabs. They will have an ample supply of males to dispose of, so in the case there is some resistance put forth by Rusia, there would be enough left over to succesfully occupy the region.

ETA about 35 years.

Posted by twobyfour 2007-03-29 03:40|| 2007-03-29 03:40|| Front Page Top

#5 But the fact is that Russia is dying out so this state of affairs is only temporary.

Not "temporary" enough to avert the sale of fissile material (if not a fully functional nuclear device), to terrorist organizations.

Some "35 years" is far too optimistic a time line.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-03-29 04:23|| 2007-03-29 04:23|| Front Page Top

#6 Zen, the fissile material (or device), yea, that's a snag.

Saw recently a flick about availability of radilogical/fisile devices. A guy went to Bulgaria and bought on a black market a nuke warhead ($750 if I recall correctly), one of many that have been left on a Russian base in Bulgaria after SU collapsed. They are not fissile devices anymore due to degradation, but they can be used as radiological devices. The dude that sells them... for him it's just a biz.

I am not sure Russia would be keen to sell functional nukes to anyone, the instinct of self-preservation would preclude it. But black market--another story.

Posted by twobyfour 2007-03-29 04:52|| 2007-03-29 04:52|| Front Page Top

#7 I am not sure Russia would be keen to sell functional nukes to anyone, the instinct of self-preservation would preclude it. But black market--another story.

Let's all hope that our ability to trace a radiological device through its isotopic signature (or fingerprint), is enough to prevent ex-Soviet forces or other nuclear capable vendors from doing so.

Sidebar: Each breeder reactor or enrichment facility has its own isotopic fingerprint. Ratios of conspicuous trace elements such as Strontium, Francium, Americium and Cesium contribute to a unique signature which is easily identified by mass spectroscopy.

Further digression illuminates why interdiction or enforced IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) compliance is of such importance in the case of rogue regimes like Iran, North Korea and Pakistan.

Without verifiable isotopic signatures, specific reprisal in reply to a proxy attack using covertly developed terrorist atomic weapons is exceedingly difficult. This is an especially conducive aspect regarding massive retaliation in reply to even a single terrorist nuclear atrocity.

If the fallout of a terrorist nuclear attack did not yield an identifiable trace signature, there would be little alternative to launching a massive retalitory strike against the entire MME (Muslim Middle East).

This is what simultaneously represents the supposed advantage (to terrorist Muslims), and immense danger of Iran's (and the entire MME's), clandestine nuclear weapons project. Tehran's stubborn refusal to allow data gathering at it facilities by the IAEA only ensures its candidacy as a target of reprisal should America undergo terrorist nuclear attack.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-03-29 07:07|| 2007-03-29 07:07|| Front Page Top

#8 Ya that's true Zen and I think everyone on this board know the Muzzies are going to hit us with one kind of a nuke or another.

The thing I don't get is that Russia is still Russia to a point. Part of me wonders why Putin hasn't closed every mosque in what remains of their empire.

Posted by Icerigger">Icerigger 2007-03-29 16:03|| 2007-03-29 16:03|| Front Page Top

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