Article

2009-06-15 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Details of Tehran street protests from WSJ

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Posted by Steve White 2009-06-15 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11129 views ] Top

#1 No news out of the Kurdish, Azeri, Arab, Baluchi, Turkmen regions.

The Iranian (Persian) nightmare scenario is to lose control simultaneously in these regions which surround the Persian heartland.

Posted by Phil_B 2009-06-15 02:54|| 2009-06-15 02:54|| Front Page Top

#2 The problem is that these people continue to have faith in a method of change that is inapplicable to their enemies. They look at the peaceful resistance methods of Ghandi and King and think that they are magic wands applicable to all peoople, not realizing that those methods were carefully adapted to trigger change processes built into Western culture by Judaeo/Christianity, and thus do not work in Muslim or Communistic contexts explicitly designed without those influences.

Posted by Ptah">Ptah 2009-06-15 08:06|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2009-06-15 08:06|| Front Page Top

#3 Iran has a young population that doesn't remember life before the '79 revolution but they are tech savvy. Dinnerjacket cut off the news media and Facebook so Twitter became the means of communication. Too bad they didn't have a real choice in the elections or they might have overthrown the mullahtocracy.

Posted by Lumpy Elmoluck5091 2009-06-15 09:44|| 2009-06-15 09:44|| Front Page Top

#4 I have seen reports in standard MSM sources of disturbances in Resht (a Caspian sea resort) and in Shiraz, on Sunday. It has definitely spread beyond Teheran, but not clear how big those protests are, as MSM has no people (AFAIK) outside Teheran and seems to be relying on phone interviews. Nothing about the Azeri region, that I know of (recall many Azeris live in Teheran, and they are generally more assimilated and more pro-regime than their ethnic cousins in NW Iran)

All in all, this is a great time. Even if this is not THE revolution, it rips the mask off the Khameni-Ahmadinajid-Rev Guards regime.

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-15 11:07|| 2009-06-15 11:07|| Front Page Top

#5 Last news is that more than a million people have gathered to protest in Tehran.

Reminds me of Leipzig 1989. This could be big.

Posted by European Conservative 2009-06-15 11:07|| 2009-06-15 11:07|| Front Page Top

#6 Ptah - clearly some Iranians are quite open to non-Gandhian means, as shown by the videos of rock throwing students, burning cars, and, IIUC, molotov cocktails. Of course the conventional narrative of the history of India leaves out a lot of history of non-Gandhian tactics as well. It was far more violent than you would know watching the Attenboro film.

It is not at all clear to me that using massive violence on the protestors wont have serious costs for the regime. Both in further alienating fence sitters in the population, and in embarassing the regimes friends in the arab world. Even if you discount that, alienating the regimes sympathizers in the West would still be no small thing.

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-15 11:12|| 2009-06-15 11:12|| Front Page Top

#7 The important thing about the million is that people feel their power.

You can't gun down a million. When I saw a million people demonstrating in Leipzig against the Communist regime they feared weeks ago, I knew this was over.

If the mullah do not get this under control very soon they could face a real revolution.

If Khamenei faces a Mussolini fate that of course would be the max

Posted by European Conservative 2009-06-15 11:14|| 2009-06-15 11:14|| Front Page Top

#8 See how powerful my words are?

Another victory for ~~Marxism~~ me!

Posted by The One 2009-06-15 12:14|| 2009-06-15 12:14|| Front Page Top

#9 AP:

One of Mousavi's Web sites said a student protester was killed early Monday in clashes with plainclothes hard-liners in Shiraz, southern Iran. But there was no independent confirmation of the report. There also have been unconfirmed reports of unrest in other cities.

Most media are not allowed to travel beyond Tehran and thus can not independently confirm protests in other cities.

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-15 13:10|| 2009-06-15 13:10|| Front Page Top

#10 You don't need to gun down a million. A million can be dispersed with enough tear gas & rubber bullets. Then you just need to gun down a couple thousand. The recent Burmese illustration suggests that about eight thousand bodies will break any non-military uprising.

This comes to nothing unless military units mutiny.

Posted by Mitch H.">Mitch H. 2009-06-15 13:13|| http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/]">[http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2009-06-15 13:13|| Front Page Top

#11 http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/mondays-updates-on-irans-disputed-election/

reports of protests in Isfahan, Shariz and Mashad.

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-15 13:41|| 2009-06-15 13:41|| Front Page Top

#12 LiberalHawk: thanks for the updates, and welcome back! We've missed you.

Posted by Steve White 2009-06-15 14:46|| 2009-06-15 14:46|| Front Page Top

#13 You can't gun down a million.

The idea is to disperse a million and hunt down the organizers. Kind of like at Tiananmen Square.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2009-06-15 14:54|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2009-06-15 14:54|| Front Page Top

#14 Iran isnt China, though.

Size of course. A million protestors in Iran is a lot more than a million in China, proportionately.

stability of the regime. Not only had china been ruled by the CCP for 40 years, but in 1989 had it little in the way of civil society. Iran has some non gov political organizations. Much more widespread comm technology.

Regional goals. China in 1989 did not care about its regional influence. Today it exercises influence based purely on its economic clout. Iran, OTOH, has since the Islamists came to power attempted to influence the region using its ideological appeal to disaffected muslim, sunnis as well as Shias.

In China in 89, such divisions within the regime as there were hushed up. The elite feared disorder, based on their exp of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. In Iran, apparently elements of the regime are quite willing to use the street against their own enemies IE the Khameni-Ahmadinajad-IRGC factions against the Rafsanjani-Moussavi faction. The actual antiregime reformers on the streets are a third force - they are trying to use Raf-Moussav while Raf-Mousav are trying to use them.

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-15 15:05|| 2009-06-15 15:05|| Front Page Top

#15 thank you Steve, you are most gracious. expect me here only occasionaly. This is an example of the kind of time when I most want to be here.

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-15 15:06|| 2009-06-15 15:06|| Front Page Top

#16 "The actual antiregime reformers on the streets are a third force - they are trying to use Raf-Moussav while Raf-Mousav are trying to use them."

This is a critical point.

What is missing is how we are using the factions and recent developments to achieve our own goals. Iran has factions and internal contradictions to how it is structured and how it operates economically. Our desired end state should be an Iran (or what is left of it when we are done) that:
a) does not threaten freedom of navigation in the Gulf
b) is not aggressive towards its neighbors (this includes supporting terrorism and proxies, not just nukes).

c)Ideally they also become an ally contributing to real peace and stability in which the US is the balancing force between Arab and Persian and Sunni and Shia blocs in the region as well as a bulwark against Russia's ambitions.

We badly want to avoid war, which might help us reach a and b (at high cost and risk) but would come at the cost of c. So we have been patient in dealing with the corrupt mullarchy even as they have fanned the flames of conflict in Lebanon and vs. Israel and killed Americans in Iraq. We hope somehow the regime will reform as younger Iranians and different ethnic groups demand more liberty and less corruption as well as better relations with the west.

This election 'crisis' is probably our last best opportunity for this to happen so we can avoid war. We should be supporting opposition groups materially (and covertly, so maybe it is happening), conducting info and psyops, calling BS in the UN and other fora, asking for international observers, open communications, etc.

Despite my initial hope that the President's Cairo speech was part of an initiative to re-set things in Iran ahead of the 'elections', it appears that our policy is to consider events there an internal matter between the secret police and the voters. Although this policy is more likely to lead to war down the road, it is proudly referred to as 'realism' by the Obama administration which has reversed our evil neocon democracy speading regime changing Bush policy so that people will stop hating us.

I liked it better when we helped -- to the extent -- possible folks taking to the streets to demand liberty to the extent possible. We don't appear to be lifting a finger.

Posted by JAB 2009-06-15 15:54|| 2009-06-15 15:54|| Front Page Top

#17 JAB

Big irony here. Obama admin seems nervous that ANY US support for the protestors would taint the protestors. BUT the very presence of BHO in the WH, arguably, should go a long way to "untainting" that support, compared to the situation under W. Is BHO being SO realist, he is underestimating his own impact on the perception of the US? I am not sure myself. I dont know if the admin has thought this out, or if they have, have done so clearheadedly.

It seems to me this is NOT what they expected. What they expected and hoped for was a clean Mousavi win, which would have enabled them to start their engagement campaign with the Raf-Moussav faction, without the costs and difficulties of dealing with dinnerjacket. The other situation they were prepared for was a clean dinnerjacket win, which would have meant the pain of dealing with dinnerjacket, but they at least had a course to follow.

This OTOH, I think has thrown them completely offguard, which is why it has taken them days to formulate a response (assuming that is forthcoming this evening)

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-15 16:03|| 2009-06-15 16:03|| Front Page Top

#18 And taking those days, is hurting The One with the Iranian people --

I spent a goodly amount of time yesterday (too hot in Texas to do anything) reading the Tweeters coming out of Iran -- lots and lots and lots and lots of comments like "Obama where are you? Obama, help us... we love you.... Obama, we need you..."

And like Doc Steve, good to see you back Liberal Hawk.

Posted by Sherry">Sherry 2009-06-15 16:16|| 2009-06-15 16:16|| Front Page Top

#19 The mullahs know that they can't alienate the well educated urban class. Actually they had certain freedoms (look at the headscarves), their life's not too bad.

If they get disillusioned they will vote with their feet and the mullahs can't stop them.

Dinnerjacket is expendable

Posted by European Conservative 2009-06-15 16:23|| 2009-06-15 16:23|| Front Page Top

#20 EC

They certainly are counting on the scientists and engineers to build them their atom bomb, among other things.

I am not sure Dinnerjacket is expendable though - 4 years ago Khameni was more worried about the poor masses overthrowing a corrupt Rafsanjani led regime, and that is still a threat.

Posted by liberal hawk 2009-06-15 16:28|| 2009-06-15 16:28|| Front Page Top

#21 I've been doing some checking around the web. Here's a link to the Times of London's weblog, showing additional links to stories coming out of Iran. Michael Totten's link also shows much of what's going on inside the country. Here is a link to the National Council of Resistance for Iran's website, with some very good articles and links.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2009-06-15 16:56|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2009-06-15 16:56|| Front Page Top

#22 I agree that they probably expected a Mousavi win, maybe in a runoff and we could then use that as an excuse to improve relations. However, this was probably naive as elections there are highly suspect given the role of the Guardian counsel and how they are conducted. A 'clean' win is hard to define let alone plan for.

Stratfor said A'jad in fact won because he is trusted on key issues of corruption, piety and national security and that we're all clueless because we base our assessemnt of Iran on English speaking, pro Western Iranians.

I disagree on the fraud issue, from what I've read. But it really does not matter: we have a chance to destablize an enemy regime and help liberty seeking people by exploiting the post election crisis and we're not doing it.

I too noted that many of the protestors were begging Obama to help. Obama, in turn, seems unlikely to underestimate his mystical power to 'untaint.' I can only, therefore, conclude that a) he prefers deailing with A'jed vs. taking chance going after the regime or b) he is just not on his game as you say.

Any statements and actions by us would have to have happened already to have an impact.

Posted by JAB 2009-06-15 16:59|| 2009-06-15 16:59|| Front Page Top

#23 Dinnerjacket controls the counting.
Case closed

Posted by European Conservative 2009-06-15 18:22|| 2009-06-15 18:22|| Front Page Top

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