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2010-05-04 Economy

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Posted by Besoeker 2010-05-04 09:04|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top

#1 I think Gordon Chang has predicted eight of the last two Chinese recessions.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2010-05-04 11:13|| 2010-05-04 11:13|| Front Page Top

#2 He gets one thing right. China was the big winner from globalization. Although he, like most, doesn't consider the other side of the globalization coin - exporting a lot to other countries means holding a lot of other countries debt.

Globalization won't unwind due to trade restrictions. It will unwind on sovereign debt defaults. No one will want to exchange goods for worthless paper (which is what China is doing now).

Posted by phil_b 2010-05-04 19:12|| 2010-05-04 19:12|| Front Page Top

#3 China can continue to sell goods for worthless paper, but at some point today's Chinese workers will get old, the young will be stuck with too many old people to support and won't remember poverty as did their parents, and will get impatient with the rate at which their standard of living increases. None of these are a problem today. I'd give the Chinese 10-20 years before things fall apart.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2010-05-04 19:18|| 2010-05-04 19:18|| Front Page Top

#4 Technology and its attendant impacts have a tendency to compress time on the usual historical cycles.

Posted by Procopius2k 2010-05-04 19:47|| 2010-05-04 19:47|| Front Page Top

#5 OTOH VARIOUS > 140 SUSPECTED AL QAEDA TERRORISTS SNEAK IN INDIA, via Sri Lankan fishing boats.

The Hard Boyz can do the same anytime to CHINA.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2010-05-04 20:43|| 2010-05-04 20:43|| Front Page Top

#6 Yes, Joe, but one wonders what can China do anytime to hard boyz.

Posted by twobyfour 2010-05-04 22:18|| 2010-05-04 22:18|| Front Page Top

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