Umm, did anybody say that it would? I guess the spin is beginning ...
Nearly obliterated by Sundayâs stunning news of Saddam Husseinâs capture was a bomb explosion apparently intended to kill Pakistanâs military president, Pervez Musharraf. "It sent a chill down my spine," said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear proliferation expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Thatâs a country with 30 to 50 nuclear weapons."
| And some mighty tight turbans... |
Saddamâs capture may decrease attacks in Iraq by members of his Baath Party, Cirincione said, "but it is largely irrelevant to the larger war against terrorism. Saddam means nothing to al-Qaida and all the al-Qaida-like forces."
| Then why have they been swarming to Iraq to fight under his banner? |
The war on terrorism lost a figurehead in Saddam, not a mastermind or even a major leader. Although his capture gave the United States and the Bush administration a huge psychological victory in Iraq, the effort to defeat the forces of anti-American terrorism worldwide was mostly unaffected.
| That's a disputable statement. Sammy's capture marked hump day in Iraq. He's not only the figurehead, but he's the signature on the checks, as well. Over the course of the next few months that money's going to run out and the "resistance" will wind down. The remainder will have to rely on Soddy money. |
Still, the placid surrender of the second most wanted man in the world may have sent a message to Osama bin Laden that more resources could be brought to bear on running him to ground.
| Or on slapping Syria and/or Iran... |
Even as he basked in the news from Iraq, President Bush acknowledged a distinction Sunday. "The war on terror is a different kind of war, waged capture by capture, cell by cell and victory by victory," he said. The president didnât mention his year-old rationale that war against Saddam was necessary to defeat terrorism. That rationale - and its accompanying claims of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction - has been dropped from administration pronouncements.
| He doesn't have to repeat himself. He should mention it one more time, in a speech at Salman Pak, before handing over power to the Iraqis... |
Some experts expect al-Qaida and its adherents to stage a major attack to regain the initiative, as the humbling of Saddam pushes recent terrorist strikes in Turkey and Saudi Arabia to the back pages of newspapers. "Thereâs no doubt that al-Qaidaâs desire to remain foremost in the news has suffered a grievous setback," said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at the RAND Corp., a research and analysis company in Washington. "This may put more pressure on al-Qaida to act, and to provoke them to elbow their way back into the news."
| Binny and Sammy: competing egos? |
Thereâs no doubt, Hoffman asserted, that the news about Saddam was "enormously disquieting" to bin Laden. "In terms of sending a message and demonstrating American resolve, itâs quite significant," Hoffman said. "With all of Saddamâs resources, if he can be found then it has to discomfort bin Laden."
| Assuming Binny's still in existence, which is problemmatical... |
He predicted that Saddamâs capture would encourage terrorist leaders to change habits and upgrade their security. This creates both challenges and opportunities for terrorist-hunters, Hoffman said. The challenges come in trying to find someone who may burrow in more deeply. The opportunities may arise "when someone is trying to move from one bolt hole to another or is forced to change their tradecraft in trying to avoid detection," he said.
| If Binny, assuming he's alive, burrows in any further he's not going to be seeing anyone. At all. You can't run things when you can't meet anybody. Executives spend their lives in meetings... |
Jean-Robert Leguey-Feilleux, whoâs been teaching a course in international terrorism for 30 years at St. Louis University, was unconvinced that Saddamâs capture would demoralize al-Qaida. "I donât think this is going to put much of a dent in bin Ladenâs network," he said. "Al-Qaida is capitalizing on the unpopularity of the U.S. occupation in Iraq and has recruited for its forces, much as in the Afghan war against the Soviet Union. For al-Qaida, this U.S. involvement is a blessing."
The American involvement in Iraq also has diverted attention from the pivotal Islamic country of Pakistan, thought to be the hiding place of many al-Qaida leaders, including bin Laden. Sundayâs bomb exploded moments after Musharrafâs motorcade passed a bridge near Pakistanâs capital, Islamabad. It marked the second assassination attempt on Musharraf since he incited extremists by assisting in the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. "The larger war against terrorism is going on in Afghanistan, Pakistan and other places in south Asia and in terror cells around the world," said Carnegieâs Cirincione. "The president has reason to celebrate," he said, "but we should all be worried about what would happen if Pakistan loses control over the warheads or the country falls into the hands of fundamentalists."
| I guess no matter what the quality of the silver lining, there's always a cloud around it. |
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