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| IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven |
| 2008-10-24 |
| McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics. About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com. The breakdown here is rather fascinating. Who would have thought that McCain would be favored 74% to 22% by the 18-24 age group, even in an IBD poll? I'm stunned, frankly, but it's a very warm, fuzzy stunned feeling. |
| Posted by:eltoroverde |
| #21 Our Catholic church has been preaching the same, and I think it passes with ease. The LDS and many of the evangelical churches as well. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2008-10-24 23:00 |
| #20 they are hoping for the same in CA to try and avoid passage of Prop 8 (const. amendment to define marriage as a man and woman). The teacher's union pushed bushels of money into the no-on-8 ad campaign, cutting ads saying they would never push gay marriage acceptance in the classroom, nosirreee. The in-your-face ruling by the CASC, Gavin Newsome's obnoxious speech, and outright lies of the gay lobby have made many (including my own sensitive self) ready to crawl over broken glass to vote yes on 8. Our Catholic church has been preaching the same, and I think it passes with ease. The polls say different, but then, they've been wrong on most of the elections here pushing an agenda rather than accurately sampling. Discouraging turnout is what it's all about now. |
| Posted by: Frank G 2008-10-24 18:18 |
| #19 Many of the pollsters seem to be in the bag for Obama as is the MSM. Seems like they are trying to create some kind of bandwagon effect such as "don't bother to turn out and vote for McCain and Palin" since the messiah's presidency is inevitable. I am hoping no one believes this BS. I also hope McCain and Palin win on election day. The Obama-Biden campaign is fraudulent and based on empty promises and disinformation. Their only promise is of a movement towards socialism and a hard turn to the left. The country has survived for a long time despite wars and economic bad times and whatever clowns are in office. The principles on which it was founded are sound. The country will will endure. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2008-10-24 17:29 |
| #18 "In French l'Elu with a capital E implies he has been designated by God." He certainly thinks he is, JFM. >:-( |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2008-10-24 16:54 |
| #17 "Also Foxnews is reporting a dramatic drop in donations to Obama's campaign." What - did they re-enable the credit card fraud-detection software on their donation website? |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2008-10-24 16:52 |
| #16 French media are getting nervous about a possible defeat of "L'Elu" (1). Of course it could be a trick for selling fishwrap. (1) In French l'Elu with a capital E implies he has been designated by God. |
| Posted by: JFM 2008-10-24 15:34 |
| #15 DV, I have no clue. |
| Posted by: Broadhead6 2008-10-24 13:42 |
| #14 What bothers me about the polls is they seem to have an impact of their own. How many contributions have gone to candidates just because they were ahead in the polls and the contributors wanted to curry the favor of the presumed winner? How many votes have been cast for less favorable candidates because the voter didn't want to "throw his vote away" on a loser? How many debates have been held where the moderators directed their questions to candidates who were ahead in the polls while ignoring legitimate, viable candidates who were behind in the polls? To the extent that polls can become self-fulfilling prophecies I never participate in them. When they call me at home I tell them I only participate in one poll and that one is the official polling place on election day. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2008-10-24 13:00 |
| #13 That looks like a self selecting internet poll. In 2004, the minor parties got: Reform(Ralph Nader) 0.38% Libertarian 0.32% Constitution 0.12% Green 0.10% |
| Posted by: ed 2008-10-24 12:56 |
| #12 Broadhead6, do they have a history of being accurate? |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-10-24 10:57 |
| #11 BTW - I don't care for political polls - if people make a decision based on a poll they are none too bright or a Clinton. |
| Posted by: Broadhead6 2008-10-24 10:57 |
| #10 CHECK THIS OUT - THIS IS A POLL I RECEIVED FROM CONGRESS.ORG - A NON-PARTISAN WEBSITE THAT ALLOWS YOU TO CONTACT YOUR CONGRESS CRITTERS ETC. Results From Round 1 (32,633 votes) 3.9% Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party) 3.4% Bob Barr (Libertarian) 48.9% John McCain(Republican) .3% Cynthia McKinney (Green Party) 1.3% Ralph Nader (Independent) 39.2% Barack Obama(Democrat) 1.1% Someone Else 1.4% I am Undecided .6% None of the Above - I'm Leaving it Blank By state, electoral college votes Obama 244 McCain 294 BATTLE GROUND STATES CURRENT RESULTS (EV=Electoral College Votes) Colorado Obama 45.7% McCain 44% 9 EV Florida McCain 52.9% Obama 35.7% 27 EV Iowa McCain 45% Obama 37.5% 7 EV Michigan Obama 42.4% McCain 41.7% 17 EV Missouri McCain 52.7% Obama 33.4% 11 EV Nevada McCain 45.7% Obama 35.3% 5 EV New Hampshire McCain 48.1% Obama 38.9% 4 EV New Mexico Obama 47.2% McCain 44.7% 5 EV Ohio McCain 49.3% Obama 38.5% 20 EV Pennsylvania McCain 45.1% Obama 42.7% 21 EV Virginia McCain 50.8% Obama 38.3% 13 EV This is polar opposite to all the MSM polls. |
| Posted by: Broadhead6 2008-10-24 10:44 |
| #9 ...a dramatic drop in donations to Obama's campaign. I guess they redistributed all the wealth they wanted too. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-10-24 10:38 |
| #8 Also Foxnews is reporting a dramatic drop in donations to Obama's campaign. |
| Posted by: JFM 2008-10-24 10:34 |
| #7 I saw it yesterday in an american MSM (Foxnews?) or "professional blogging site" (pajamasmedia?). Don't remember more except that dfate was post 10/20 (the date is the first thing I look at). I don't think IPSOS name was associated with MacClatchy. A such (for me) exotic name would have caught my attention. |
| Posted by: JFM 2008-10-24 10:06 |
| #6 Personally, I do NOT believe the polls. I make a point of lying to pollsters. I would like to see the profession discredited. |
| Posted by: Formerly Dan 2008-10-24 10:03 |
| #5 oops... link corrected http://www.mcclatchydc.com/327/story/54535.html |
| Posted by: sludge 2008-10-24 09:06 |
| #4 JFM, Are you sure? http://www.mcclatchydc.com/327/story/54535.html |
| Posted by: sludge 2008-10-24 09:03 |
| #3 IPSOS, ie a |
| Posted by: JFM 2008-10-24 08:58 |
| #2 Personally, I do NOT believe the polls. Hidden in all of this is a strange reality: a. If the polls are wrong, we will get the leadership we have requested and deserve. b. If the polls are correct, we will get the leadership we have requested and deserve. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2008-10-24 08:02 |
| #1 ...The polls have been so all-over-the-place this time - even worse than 04 - that I've just automatically started assuming that they're lying. It's already been admitted that the OH polls in 04 - which showed Kerry comfortably ahead of Bush, when the exact opposite was true - were finagled in order to influence voting. This year, we get polls that show Obama several points ahead of McCain, followed by stories that essentially tell us, "You might as well vote for Obama, the other guy hasn't a chance-" and then we see polls that show it;s a hell of a lot closer. Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2008-10-24 06:21 |