#2
Actually, "strategery" may be for real, and may be serious.
Back when H.W. Bush was president, a new and very powerful data mining software class was invented.
One version is today being used by police to do in depth analysis of crimes and criminals, sorting through vast numbers of links that no human mind could analyze. It is so useful to the police, that a version was adapted for use by the US Army in Iraq, that proved very useful in busting up both criminal and terrorist organizations.
But H.W. Bush himself mentioned, about the time when he was leaving office, of foreign policy analysis via what he called "linkages", the thousands of connections that exist between countries. It would be a natural application of such software to data mine such linkages.
Importantly, doing so would reveal very complex and unseen relationships and activities, that would not normally be noticed even by foreign policy experts. This would be a huge advantage in foreign relations and realpolitik.
Even before W. Bush became president, he seemed to have amazing planning foresight, easily able to knock off all his primary opposition even before the primary season had begun. This continued into his presidency, though it was knocked for a loop by 9-11, an almost unforeseeable event.
But there seems to be no evidence of the use of such "strategery" outside of the Bush family, so perhaps they have kept it for their own use.
#3
The Progressives have been using 'strategery' to win elections since about 2004. See the book "The Blueprint" about the use of data mining in building up domestic voting blocs.
#4
The Progressives have been using 'strategery' to win elections since about 2004.
Except the strategy doesn't seem to be working so well. The 2010 elections resulted in a House landslide. Twenty nine governors are Pubs. Ten changed from Donk to Pub in the last election. Hard to say what will happen in 2012. The 2012 presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, 33 seats in the Senate, elections for governors in 13 states and territories are up for grabs. The economy is bad. That doesn't bode well for BHO.
#5
There was recently a kerfluffle in Wisconsin when Dem state senators absconded to avoid a critical vote. Lots of hate & discontent about this in Wisconsin. The Dems came back, and now there are several recall elections in the works - to recall Republicans. No apparent recall elections for the absconders. I guess it would be the other way around. That doesn't bode well.
#6
as i recall, there was to be a recall election on some Democrats in Wisconsin, but someone broke into the offices of the petition gatherers and stole the signatures and computers... twice.
that is how the left intends to hold power.
Posted by: abu do you love ||
05/13/2011 20:05 Comments ||
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#1
Washington needs to do everything in its power to ensure that any future Libyan government is a partner in fighting terrorism.
Good luck with that! The US influence on the next Libyan goverment will be, in a word - LIMITED. First off, the mantra comming out of this R2P come Strategic-Leadership experiment is "It's up to the Libyan people to decide". Anything remotely seen as nation building will be rejected domesticly and viewed as colonialism in Mooslimb land. Second, any new Libyan goverment will have no choice but to embrace any Jihadi-type "Rebels" as Freedom fighters. (At least in the short term.) And as far as weaponry falling into the hands of the AQ types...well you might as well just leave that dog out on the porch. But the biggest factor is Libyan society itself. The only functioning institutions are the ones constructed under decades of a dictatorial Islamo-Socialist regime. And the majority of Libyan society operates through generations of Tribal Blood fueds run by Islamic fanatics or illiterate animists. Yeah a partner goverment sounds good but the best hope is that covert assests can keep track of the worst elements and eventually liquidate most of them.
[Asharq al-Awsat] Last week the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces warned that "unidentified" websites are working to destabilize [the country] and incite sectarian sedition and violence by broadcasting rumors. In a message posted on its own internet website, the Supreme Council noted that the sources of such websites, including pages on Facebook, were unidentified, and some of these web-sites were based in foreign countries, making it difficult to identify their owners. The Supreme Council concluded its message by warning people to be wary of rumors, or calls for sedition, made on the internet or elsewhere, for these aim to sow fear and suspicion, undermine Egypt's stability, and spread chaos.
A few days after this warning, the poor neighborhood of Imbaba in Cairo, which is considered one of the city's most densely populated areas, witnessed sectarian violence that resulted in 12 deaths and left more than 180 people injured. This led to Prime Minister Essam Sharaf cancelling his Gulf tour, despite its importance, in order to attend an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the repercussions of this event. It is interesting that the festivities erupted following rumors that a Coptic woman was being held against her will in the Church of Saint Mina because she wanted to convert to Islam. This resulted in crowds of people, including Salafist ...Salafists espouse an austere form of Sunni Islam that seeks a return to practices that were common in the 7th century. Rather than doing that themselves and letting other people alone they insist everybody do as they say and they try to kill everybody who doesn't... s, gathering in front of the church demanding her release. Matters soon developed into festivities where bullets and even Molotov cocktails were used, whilst another church in the neighborhood was set on fire, thus pouring more fuel on the burning flames of sectarian tension.
This is a "war of rumors" being waged by those who want to transform the Egyptian revolution from a wedding into a funeral; they are working to spread chaos and destabilize security to increase frustrations in the hearts of the people and to quell the spirit revived by the Tahrir Square revolution. Sectarianism is the greatest threat to Egypt, just as frustration is the revolution's most dangerous enemy; the former results in the fragmentation of the fabric of society, placing the entire country on the verge of a serious crisis, whilst the latter erodes the morale of the people and causes fear and doubt to supersede the great hopes for change.
The war of rumors, and rogue internet websites, is nothing new; this is something that has accompanied the Egyptian revolution since the early days, initially with the aim of frustrating the revolution, and then later trying to abort this. People spoke, at various levels, about a counter-revolution aiming to create chaos and disrupt the steps towards democratization in a country with an indisputable role and ability to influence its surrounding environment. Internally there are forces that want to thwart the revolution, whilst others that are seeking to seize control of it; there are those who are afraid for the revolution, and others who are afraid of it. While externally, there are also those who want to set back the hopes of the "Arab Spring". The problem is that matters have reached the extent that some people in Egypt (as well as in Tunisia) are now talking about the "Algerian scenario", in the sense of the presence of parties working to create confusion, thus creating conditions for an Islamist victory in the upcoming elections amidst this tense atmosphere. The objective of this is to prompt the military to intervene under the slogan of "saving the country".
In Egypt specifically, such conversations are also fuelling sectarian tensions, where the Coptic community is now feeling concerned by the rise of the Islamists, and in particular the extremism of the Salafists, who suddenly raised their voices in Egypt following the revolution. The direction of many of the Salafist actions and statement is a subject of increasing concern for the Copts, who are fearful of the "Iraq scenario", which saw terrorist and jihad boy movements target Christians in order to displace them.
It is striking that the pace of sectarian incidents in Egypt has accelerated since the revolution, from the burning of a church in the center of Atfih, Giza, and festivities that killed 13 people, to Islamists cutting off the ear of a Copt in Upper Egypt, and then demonstrations against the appointment of a Copt to the position of Governor of Qena. In the context of this continuing escalation, several demonstrations have also been organized in the past few weeks to revive the issue of Camilia Shehata and Wafaa Constantine, two married Copts who sparked wide controversy months ago after it was rumored that they were being imprisoned in a Church against their will because they wanted to convert to Islam.
The issue of sectarian strife has become the biggest threat to Egypt and its revolution, and indulgence or negligence can no longer be tolerated. The Copts, with estimates on their total population varying between six and ten million, represent an integral part of Egyptian society; they are not newcomers or outsiders, and there are many Copts who have done great service to Egypt. Throughout its history, Egypt was a model of coexistence, before certain movements of intolerance and religious extremism appeared, threatening to destroy its national unity and disrupt the fabric of its society. Following a wonderful example of cohesion during the days of the revolution, today movements and voices are looming, rejecting the principle of equal citizenship for all, seeking to marginalize minorities, and attempting to impose their view on everyone.
It is necessary to protect the revolution, but protecting the homeland and its unity is a sacred duty. If the basics of democratic transformation allow freedom of expression and association, then the protection of democracy requires the rule of law and the protection of the rights of all citizens equally and without discrimination. The law must remain above all else, and an independent judiciary must be the first recourse. It is not the right of any movement or group of people to set fire to houses of worship, or to organize rallies demanding that individuals be handed over to them, in order to confirm their religious affiliation. If someone is being held against their will, it is the law that will protect them...this is the manner in which people should behave.
Egypt is currently going through a difficult transition, and revolutions are usually most fragile during this phase. However, The emphatic However... the revolution requires patience, perseverance and vigilance in order to achieve its objectives, and in order to protect itself from those who want to thwart it or abort it by spreading chaos, rumors and discord. At this stage, the Egyptian army, which provided a sublime model in its discipline and commitment to protecting the homeland when it refused to use arms against its own people, must now strengthen channels of communication and consultation with other civil and political social forces in order to integrate efforts to protect the revolution and national unity, and in order to overcome the feelings of anxiety and frustration at this sensitive stage.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
05/13/2011 00:00 ||
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[Dawn] "You will only be able to attack Christians over our dead bodies," Ghulam Muhammad Doger, head of the Gujranwala police, warned the rioters in Azizabad Colony. They had gathered to protest the release of two Christian brothers who were initially accused of blasphemy but were released after the charges were proven false.
In a rare display of courage by the police, in blasphemy-related incidents, Dogar refused to succumb to intense pressure by the religious and political parties and provided protection to the wrongfully accused brothers and other members of the Christian community. The incident is a particularly pertinent example of ensuing havoc after blasphemy related events, even after the charges are proven false. Often, these incidents bear striking similarities, provocateurs gather to raise hue and cry over an incident of blasphemy and the enraged crowd then becomes the judge, jury and executioner. The role of religious holy mans and mosque loudspeakers in such incidents should be noted. Innumerable incidents in the past have ended up in the extra-judicial killing of those accused, raising concerns about the exploitation of religious sentiments to settle personal vendettas.
Four months ago, former Governor Salmaan Taseer was bumped off by his own bodyguard for his stance on the reformation of the blasphemy law. A few months later, the Federal Minister for Minorities Shahbaz Bhatti -- who was the only Christian member of the cabinet -- was killed outside his residence in Islamabad. Both incidents have put a halt to the extremism debate due to fear of vigilantes justice.
The Human Rights Commission of Pakistain's figures of faith-based violence in 2010 paint a grim picture:
"Four hundred and eighteen people were killed in violence against various Mohammedan sects. Another 963 were maimed. 500 Hindu families from Balochistan migrated to India because of threats to their lives and security. Ninety-nine Ahmadis were killed in faith-based violence. Impunity for perpetrators of violence against minority communities continued. At least 64 people were charged under the blasphemy law. Three men, including two Christian brothers, accused of blasphemy were killed in police custody. Only 25 of the 102 Sikh families forced to flee Orakzai Agency ... crawling with holy men, home to Darra Adam Khel, the world's largest illegal arms bazaar. 14 distinct tribes of beturbanned primitives inhabit Orakzai agency's 1500 or so square kilometers... returned to the area. Seventy-three members of religious minority communities did away with himself and 21 attempted to take their own lives killed 17 members of minority communities in the name of honor."
These figures warrant immediate and substantial reactions from the authorities. Even though the government has made clear its stance on the blasphemy law, that should not absolve responsibility from blasphemy related events. While the debate on the blasphemy law has become deeply polarised and charged with fears of vigilantism it has also over-shadowed the need to curb faith-based violence.
Regardless of which side of the debate one is on with reference to the blasphemy law, violence should not be tolerated. Rather than taking refuge on the controversial law itself the authorities must focus on providing protection to the minorities and various sects. Crimes committed in the name of religion should be punished severely rather than succumbing to pressure and setting precedent for justified vigilantism. Given the current circumstances this might appear difficult but is definitely not impossible. To fight any form of violence it is important for every faction of the society to be involved, to put aside his or her political difference and to unite in the face of terror. For faith related violence the most important role can be played by the holy mans themselves. Religious scholars, muftis and holy mans can play a significant role in strengthening inter-faith harmony and neutralising the situation.
Perhaps, it would help to acknowledge that the vigilantes do not outnumber us. That voices echoing the need for interfaith harmony are drowned in the holler for violence. There are people like Pervaiz Masih, who sacrificed his life by preventing a jacket wallah from entering the cafeteria of Islamic University in Islamabad. Maham Ali, who did not let Masih's bravery go in vain. She rose to the occasion and raised funds for Masih's family. Allama Tahir Ashrafi, Chairman Pakistain Ulema Council, who became a strong and sane voice at a time when certain religious parties were busy condoning Taseer's murder.
There is a lesson to be learnt here -- terror doesn't recognise faith, it only recognizes its lust for blood and gore. For terrorists, religion is yet another ploy, and a powerful one at that, to justify their actions. Through our apathy we abet these crimes and our silence breeds intolerance. The examples of Ghulam Dogar, Maham, Masih and Allama Ashrafi prove that one doesn't need to take drastic measures to do their bit in fighting violence, what is required is sense of morality and courage to break the silence. I have written about the dire conditions of our minorities several times and so I want to salute these unsung heroes and hope that the likes of them multiply and grow forth, so that we may be able to cherish the many unsung heroes of our times.
Posted by: Fred ||
05/13/2011 00:00 ||
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#1
Wake me up when Islam outlaws the death penalty/lynching for blasphemy/apostacy, calls for jihad, "honour killings", etc.
[Asharq al-Awsat] One "analyst" from the Syrian regime, speaking on the "al-Arabiya" satellite channel, said that the fall of the regime in Damascus ...The City of Jasmin is the oldest continuously-inhabited city in the world. It has not always been inhabited by the same set of fascisti... would be a doomsday scenario for the region. He even described how he envisioned the scene in Iraq, for example, with the withdrawal of American troops from there at the end of the year. Of course, we do not know whether this is an analysis, or a threat, but it is certainly a superficial assessment!
With the outbreak of demonstrations in the majority of Syrian cities, the facts in the region say the opposite. When the Syrian relationship with Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, deteriorated, for example, the inter-Paleostinian reconciliation crisis improved, and the two sides convened in Cairo. Now the Hezbullies government in Leb has come to a standstill, and now there is talk of a Lebanese national unity government. The leaders of Hezbullies remain holed up waiting for the [outcome] of the situation in Syria. In the event that Hezbullies decided to open a front against Israel, to lift the pressure on the Syrian regime, this would be a grave mistake, for there is no Arab country today that is able to manipulate international positions to stop Israeli aggression, everyone is busy with their domestic concerns, including Iran.
It was strange that the "analyst" in Damascus talked about the situation in Iraq, in the event of the fall of the Syrian regime, and not about the situation in his own country. Which is more important, the demands of the Syrian people or the situation in Iraq? How will Syria influence Iraq in the event of regime change or overthrow, when Iraq did not influence the internal Syrian scene, its population, and all its ramifications, after the fall of Saddam Hussein and military action? It is a problem that the Syrian regime is neglecting internal demands by trying to use every foreign affairs card to strengthen its regime.
When the Europeans issued a list of sanctions targeting 13 Syrian individuals, the Syrian presidential advisor Bouthaina Shaaban was right when she suggested to the New York Times ...which still proudly displays Walter Duranty's Pulitzer prize... newspaper that the regime could overcome such punishments. In the event that the Syrian regime is able to fully suppress the demonstrations, which is what it is doing now, it would be quite easy then to rid itself of the American and European sanctions. All it takes is to fabricate a crisis in Leb, or elsewhere, such as Paleostine, or Iraq, and when the West comes to negotiate with Damascus, they will have to prove their good intentions, and that means lifting sanctions. This is simple, and Damascus has done it repeatedly, most prominently during the negotiations with the Americans to adjust the Syrian-Iraqi border. We still see the U.S. ambassador in Damascus, not even intending to withdraw, in spite of all that is happening in Syria.
What is most alarming is that despite the corpse count in Syria reaching nearly 800 casualties, the thousands of arrests, tanks still roaming the streets, and innocent people imprisoned in sporting venues, being tortured to reveal their Facebook passwords, despite all this, Syria is still a candidate to obtain a seat on the United Nations ...Parkinson's Law on an international scale... Human Rights Council. Why not, as long as this depressing Arab and international silence continues, especially from the U.S, and as long as Israel is satisfied, although the safety of its borders is guaranteed by a truce, not a peace agreement with Damascus!
Thus, the talk of doomsday is superficial. Our region, for more than five decades, has been living in the hell of war and underdevelopment.
Posted by: Fred ||
05/13/2011 00:00 ||
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Observers believe that Bin Laden's death will not weaken the jihadist movement in Afghanistan and Pakistan and elsewhere in the world; however Al Qaeda was a Bin Laden construct, he was behind the September 11 attacks, whilst all members of Al Qaeda pledged their allegiance to Osama Bin Laden the man, rather than to the organization or to any specific ideology. In this regard, Noman Benotman, a former leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group [Al-Jamaa al-Islamiya al-Muqatilah bi Libya -- LIFG], stressed that there are huge problems within the Al Qaeda organization following Osama Bin Laden's death. Benotman, who today is a Senior Analyst (Strategic Communications) at the London-based anti-Islamist think tank Quilliam, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the financial support that was being provided to Al Qaeda, from figures in the Gulf and Pakistan, was being provided due to trust and confidence in Bin Laden, and that the financial aid may dry up following the death of the Al Qaeda leader. He added "with the death of Bin Laden, Al Qaeda is lacking the force of a commander to inspire the disparate groups that are connected to the organizations in the Middle East and North Africa."
Benotman also told Asharq Al-Al-Awsat that Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama Bin Laden's deputy leader, was the "mastermind" behind Osama Bin Laden, describing the Egyptian jihadist as being "the brains" of Al Qaeda. He also acknowledged that the strategic turning point in the history of Al Qaeda, namely the targeting of the US as the great enemy, rather than the Middle East regimes, represented a blow to al-Zawahiri, who wanted to overthrow the Egyptian government. According to Benotman, Bin Laden influenced al-Zawahiri's ideology in this regard, telling him "forget the closest enemies [the Middle East governments], and instead put your sights on the main enemy, and that is the United States."
#1
London-based anti-Islamist think tank Quilliam, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the financial support that was being provided to Al Qaeda, from figures in the Gulf and Pakistan, was being provided due to trust and confidence in Bin Laden, and that the financial aid may dry up following the death of the Al Qaeda leader.
Could it be that the Bin Laden dollars had already dried up and thus helped contribute to his demise?
#3
@Besoeker, maybe, but tough interrogations and connecting the dots of the couriers didn't have much to do with al Qaeda's deteriorating finances. Plus he seemed to be living okay personally in his villa.
Posted by: American Delight ||
05/13/2011 7:29 Comments ||
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#4
This probably has a lot to do with it. Cliffs Notes version is that the Saudi government's trying to buy off its homegrown protest movements with massive social spending. Presumably this means there's less petty cash in the till to spread around to Al Qaeda & Co.
Posted by: Ricky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo) ||
05/13/2011 12:38 Comments ||
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#5
Could it be that the Bin Laden dollars had already dried up and thus helped contribute to his demise?
Pretty much. He had no outside business interests to speak of anymore, he was communicating by courier, and rarely at that. He'd basically achieved Dali Lama status, a figurehead, but powerless.
Besides, nobody loves you when you old and gray and reduced to watching videos of yourself in a concrete shack.
#6
The main problem may be ultimately the Saudis. They have had their financial fingers in the Philippines, southern Thailand, Indonesia, Chechnya, Balkan places, Pakistan and a bunch of other places. Dealing with the so-called princes would be a quantum step in clearing up this jihadi mess. Dry up their Wahhabi money and you have a good start.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
05/13/2011 15:49 Comments ||
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#7
AP - See my comment above re how the Saudi government's having to reallocate its financial resources in the name of self-preservation. That being said, I've believed for years that if numerous random Saudi princelings were found with extra holes in their heads, floating face-down in various bodies of water around the world, there would be a salutary effect on the behavior of the rest.
Posted by: Ricky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo) ||
05/13/2011 16:28 Comments ||
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#8
I call shennaginans, as IMO OVERT ANDOR COVERT PRO-ISLAMIST MUSLIM GOVTS, ELEMENTS, OTHER HAVE A STAKE IN POST-OSAMA RADICAL ISLAM ACHIEVING ANY COMMON AGENDUM.
The above would've planned in anticipation of Osama, etal. future death or capture - THE USA MAY HAD SUCCESSFULLY "KILLED" OSAMA BUT THE USA PER SE IS IN A HIGHLY FRAGILE STATE OF AFFAIRS.
As for Radical Islam per se, methinks its safe to say the bulk of MilTerr members are in it to the death, i.e. LT IMPRISONMENT OR DEATH IN ARMED COMBAT, OTHER VIOLENCE, ETC.
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
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