ORLANDO - It wasn't fully clear at the time, but the political ground was shifting under Rick Perry's feet from virtually the moment he arrived here in Orlando for the Republican presidential debate and Florida GOP straw poll. Just how much the ground shifted wasn't apparent until early Saturday evening, when Florida Gov. Rick Scott announced the poll's results: Perry, and fellow leader Mitt Romney, and the rest of the Republican field finished far behind longshot winner Herman Cain.
It was a huge victory for Cain in a key state. After all, Gov. Scott said repeatedly that the straw poll would choose the next president. "I believe whoever wins this straw poll on Saturday will be the Republican nominee and I believe the Republican nominee will be the next president," Scott told Fox News earlier in the week. And Perry himself said just hours before the poll that, "I've got all my hopes on Florida." (Of course, shortly after uttering those words, Perry got on a plane for Michigan, passing up an opportunity to address straw poll voters in person before the balloting, which probably didn't help his chances.)
The final results were Cain 37.1 percent; Perry 15.4 percent; Romney 14.0 percent; Rick Santorum 10.9 percent; Ron Paul 10.4 percent; Newt Gingrich 8.4 percent; Jon Huntsman 2.3 percent; and Michele Bachmann 1.5 percent.
Perry made a big effort to win the straw poll, and a week before the voting, it appeared he would reap big benefits. He had the money, he had the organization, he had the endorsements. And Cain? The Georgia businessman received his first endorsement less than 24 hours before the voting, when Florida state Rep. Scott Plakon announced he was supporting Cain. "I met with [Perry and Romney], and they're both very good candidates," Plakon said later, "but I just couldn't get there. And my wife kept saying to me for days, what about Herman Cain?" One thing led to another, and Plakon sat down for a talk with Cain on Friday evening. The two hit it off, and 20 minutes later, Plakon recalls, "I shook his hand and said, 'I'm all in.'" Minutes after that, Plakon found himself introducing Cain before hundreds of loud, enthusiastic supporters. It was a good moment for both, but that was pretty much the extent of Cain's establishment support.
Meanwhile, dozens, maybe hundreds of GOP delegates who came to Orlando intending to support Perry were having second thoughts. They'd all been in the room for the Fox News-Google debate on Thursday night and were dismayed by Perry's performance. Actually, more than dismayed -- some were insulted by Perry's accusation that people who don't support his immigration positions are heartless. Still, they didn't immediately drop the Texas governor, did not immediately say, "That's it -- I'm outta here." Rather, in the 40 hours after the end of the debate, their minds were a little more open than they had been before. And most were specifically a little more open to Cain, who impressed them during the debate and had made a number of impromptu appearances around the hotels adjacent to the Orange County Convention Center.
But even on Saturday, Perry might still have recovered some support with an inspiring speech before the voting. Instead, he headed off to Michigan, and it was Cain who delivered a barn-burner that brought at least seven standing ovations from the delegates. Wavering Perry delegates became Cain voters.
"I couldn't make up my mind," said Thelma, from Panama City, after the vote. "It was the speech that made the hair stand up on my arms. It wasn't a tingle down my leg -- it was an emotional excitement that this man knows how to get our country out of trouble."
"I went in with this on my shirt," said Melissa from Panama City, pointing to her PERRY sticker. "And I voted for Cain."
"I liked Cain, but I wasn't sure he could win," said Zena, from Washington County. "But after I heard this, I thought it doesn't matter if he wins or not -- I am for this man. He was awesome."
Multiply Thelma, Melissa, and Zena a few hundred times and you have what happened inside the convention hall. As he walked around the enormous room, Scott Plakon began to suspect that something was up. "Supporters of the other camps, some who had buttons on, came up to me and said, 'I voted for your guy,'" Plakon says. In the end, it wasn't even close.
What had happened? In the days before the vote, nearly all the delegates who voted for Cain either said or heard someone else say this: "I love Herman Cain, but he can't get elected." The assumption that Cain can't win the Republican nomination was a serious obstacle in their minds. But at some point late Friday and early Saturday, the delegates overcame that obstacle. Some concluded that since they had heard so many people speak well of Cain, he could indeed win, if everyone who liked him would actually vote for him. Others remained skeptical of Cain's ultimate chances but decided to send the message that they would choose candidates based on conservative principles, and not on perceived electability.
Once the delegates got over the can't-get-elected hurdle, a close contest became a landslide for Herman Cain.
One other factor should not be underestimated. Yes, the delegates liked what Cain had to say. But how he said it was just as important. With his deep, booming voice and a style that any motivational speaker would envy, Cain can give a rousing speech, and he gave several of them during four days in Orlando. No other candidate, frontrunner or back of the pack, could match him. It's not an exaggeration to say that his power as an orator sealed the deal for hundreds of delegates. They believed Cain was speaking to them from the heart, and they were carried away by it. As with the Democratic primary contests of 2007 and 2008, never underestimate the power of a stirring speech.
So what now? After the vote, nearly all the delegates were happy with the results. Of course Cain supporters were happy, but people who said they voted for Perry were also happy. Same for the delegates who voted for Gingrich, Santorum, and others. Even Romney supporters, who were less likely to switch to Cain, weren't unhappy with the way things worked out.
The story is not the same with the larger political establishment. Already some Republicans are interpreting Cain's victory as a statement of voter unhappiness with the GOP field and are calling for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to enter the race. Others see Saturday's vote as the ultimate illustration of the problem with straw polls, which attract an activist base that does not resemble the general election electorate. After Michele Bachmann's victory at the Ames, Iowa straw poll and Cain's win in Florida, some will say it's time to do away with such contests.
All of which leaves open the question: What next for Herman Cain? In the short run, a stepped-up campaign and more media visibility. Cain actually had no political events scheduled for next week because he is preparing for the October 4 rollout of his new book, This Is Herman Cain! My Journey to the White House. (Yes, that's really the title.) In the longer run, Cain will have to struggle against the perception that the Republican race is still a two-man affair, Romney versus Perry, or, if Perry's fade continues, a done deal for Mitt Romney. Cain's win in Orlando is a big accomplishment, but it will not dispel the doubts that many Republicans continue to feel about his candidacy.
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