[Friday Times] A lot has so far been said and written by analysts about the peace talks offered by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistain in a video message released to the media on February 3. So far the crux of all commentaries is that TTP is not serious about any peace talks and it is only interested in buying some time to reorganize itself and in the process also wants to send out a message to those within its ranks and files who want peace with the government that actually it's the government which is least interested. Nominating Adnan Rashid, a convicted murderer, with the precondition that talks will be only held within the parameters of constitution and law set by the All Parties Conference (called by ANP in Islamabad on 14 February) gives credence to the above mentioned arguments.
Notwithstanding, some very interesting developments have unfolded both within and outside the geographical borders of Pakistain and it seems that the impetus for the 'Peace Talks' offer extended by TTP owes much to these developments. Firstly Tehrik-e-Taliban Afghanistan has formally started negotiations with the US and Afghan government on the Afghan imbroglio. Both sides are showing the required flexibility by burying all preconditions which were previously attached to such dialogues. After this development TTP is haunted by the fear that if the Afghan Peace and reconciliation process succeeds it will certainly marginalize and isolate it on two accounts. Firstly the pretext on which the TTP are attracting recruits to its folds will diminish i.e. they claim that foreign forces are occupying Afghanistan and they have every right to wage jihad against US and its allies. And secondly TTP Mehsud group depends on others for its strength. For instance Hakimullah Mehsud and Wali-ur-Rehman both lost their area (South Wazoo Agency) to the Pak Army during operation Rah-e-Nijat. They are now operating from North Waziristan Agency where they are backed by Maulana Sadiq Noor of Khatti Kalai who is Dawar of the minority tribe of North Waziristan Agency. They also derive their strength from non-locals such as Punjabi Taliban, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Arab, Chechen and other smaller groups. It is believed that if these groups relocate themselves to other fragile parts of the world if and when US and NATO ...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A single organization with differing goals, equipment, language, doctrine, and organization.... forces withdraw from the region, Mehsud group will obviously lose ground in North Waziristan, its operational base, as majority of locals are against them.
Similarly Hafiz Gul Bahadar the local Taliban capo of North Waziristan, Who is Utmanzai Wazir by tribe, has great reservations against Hakimullah Mahsud and Wali-ur-Rehman. So far Hafiz Gul Bahadr has exercised restraint perhaps because he lacks the required strength or will to compel TTP to accept his authority. He mainly draws his strength from sub tribes of Utmanzai Wazir; Mada Khel and Tori Khel whereas he has some pockets of strength in Kabul Khel, Bura Khel, Zoni Khel, Baki Khel and Datta Khel.
To avoid disrespect to Wazir families Hafiz Gul Bahadar is strongly against the military operation in North Waziristan Agency and in that regard he and his Shura have already signed a peace pact with the government which is often violated by Mehsud group (TTP) and its affiliates. Visibly perturbed with the activities of the TTP, who are not only targeting the security forces but also the local rustics in North Waziristan Agency in total disregard of the peace agreement which Hafiz Gul Bahadar has reached with the government, Gul bahadar convened Jirga of Bora Khel, Datta Khel and Darpa Khel at Anghar village located on the brink of river Tochi some two months back. This event went unnoticed in both print and electronic media yet it is a significant development which will have enormous impact on the events unfolding in the future.
It was decided in that Jirga that the local tribes i.e. Bora Khel, Datta Khel and Darpa Khel will form a joint lashkar to improve fragile security situation in Miranshah ... headquarters of al-Qaeda in Pakistain and likely location of Ayman al-Zawahiri. The Haqqani network has established a ministate in centered on the town with courts, tax offices and lots of madrassas... Bazar, agency headquarter of North Waziristan Agency. As a result of this meeting joint laskhar was raised by these three tribes and within two months it has completely secured the Miranshah bazaar which was largely insecure due to the activities of TTP.
On account of these two events Hakimullah Mehsud group (TTP) has smelled the danger which the future holds for it. It would be indeed a nightmare for TTP in case Gul Bahadar and Utmanzai Wazir further extend the lashkar to Mir Ali, Razmak, Datta Khel, Esha, Spinwam, Shewa and Spulga areas of North Waziristan. Similarly if Afghan Taliban (TTA) reaches an agreement with United States of America and Afghan government then in such a situation non-local Taliban will certainly relocate themselves and so will the Haqqani Network which often plays role of mediator between different factions of Taliban in case of any differences. In such a scenario it would be very hard for Mehsud group (TTP) to survive and keep its structure intact. Therefore, it seems very sagacious on part of TTP to offer peace talks to the government of Pakistain and ultimately cut peace agreement before it gets late.
Whatever the case is it is good news for the people of Pakistain generally and for rustics specifically that at least both sides value the need to negotiate peace. It is pertinent to mention here that at the start of any negotiation opposing parties do come with an unrealistic list of conditions, however, their position dilutes with the passage of time which is evident from the case of US and Afghan Taliban dialogues. Therefore, the government should take the offer seriously as the people and the region deserves peace.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
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Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
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