Article

2006-01-30 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Why was everyone so surprised at the Hamas victory? Blame the pollster.

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Dan Darling 2006-01-30 04:25|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 My informal poll (I consult my own brain) tells me that if democratic elections were held in Eqypt, Saudia Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, and maybe Iran, Osama bin Laden would be elected "Caliph" by a very wide margin. But then no one consults me...

Posted by Crairong Omomotch6492 2006-01-30 04:36|| 2006-01-30 04:36|| Front Page Top

#2 I've been saying as long as I've been hanging out here that polls in Muslim countries are all dirty. Even the ones taken by Western organizations like the Pew Foundation reek since they are subcontracted out to -- guess who? -- guys like Shikaki. (Did you think that Chad, Lars, and Pierre go into the slums of Islamabad, clip board in hand, to take these polls?) And guys like Shikaki don't want to wake up one morning to find that their oldest son is in mukhabarat custody, or that 'activists' burnt down their office last night. So they do whatever their government handler tells them to. Idiots in the MSM and policy elites believe them.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-01-30 07:31|| 2006-01-30 07:31|| Front Page Top

#3 Not to be too hard on Shikaki but we have some problems with polls here also (remember the Nov 2004 Kerry victory parties based on early exit polls).

Shikaki may well have done the best he could but one systemic problem is that polling is most accurate when the electorate is unemotional and the pollsters have a substantial history with that electorate so that they know how to create a representative sample and know how to ask follow up questions to validate the answers.

Of course another systemic problem is that the media are generally ignorant of the problems of polling (and yet another error is that the media view all facts through their ideological filter).

Posted by mhw 2006-01-30 08:19|| 2006-01-30 08:19|| Front Page Top

#4 "Everyone who thought Fatah would win, raise your hands and shout!"

...

"Chirp, chirp, chirp, chirp ... "

Posted by Perfesser 2006-01-30 08:55|| 2006-01-30 08:55|| Front Page Top

#5 Right on MHW, even the pollster had to eat a shit sandwhich about that one and he had to admit the poll was tainted.

Posted by Cyber Sarge 2006-01-30 10:27|| 2006-01-30 10:27|| Front Page Top

#6 Shikaki runs something called the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, which gets money from foreign governments and foundations to conduct opinion surveys.

Knowing who the funding sources are would be illuminating.

Posted by Pappy 2006-01-30 11:30|| 2006-01-30 11:30|| Front Page Top

22:17 .com
22:16 .com
22:13 Sock Puppet OÂ´ Doom
22:11 Hupomoger Clans9827
22:10 trailing wife
22:06 Alaska Paul
22:04 Sock Puppet O´ Doom
22:01 Phil
22:00 Sock Puppet Â´ Doom
22:00 Darrell
21:59 Darrell
21:55 Frank G
21:54 Alaska Paul
21:53 Frank G
21:50 Frank G
21:44 .com
21:43 Alaska Paul
21:43 Dave D.
21:43 trailing wife
21:41 JosephMendiola
21:39 Truthhascome.com
21:39 Barbara Skolaut
21:37 RD
21:35 JosephMendiola