Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by Fred 2013-02-18 00:00||
Front Page|| [316 views ]
File under: Lashkar e-Jhangvi
#1 Iff Islamabad can't control or eliminate the violence, either the poor Shias move or else Iran invades.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-02-18 00:21||
#2 And go where?
Posted by Redneck Jim 2013-02-18 04:59||
#3 Iran doesn't care about Pakistani Hazaras - not all Shia are created equal. Besides, until their nukes are ready, they dare not attack Pakistan anyway. Without nukes, I'd happily sell programs and popcorn, but.....
Posted by Glenmore 2013-02-18 07:59||
#4 Iran is more likely to attack Iraq first than Pakistan. No nukes, large Shia population, tensions already high, and invading the kurd area's would help stop the resistance in their NW border.
Posted by Charles 2013-02-18 09:13||
And go where?
Just head south. Keep going south. Until they can't go south anymore.
I figure that's probably a few hundred feet into the Indian Ocean, for most of them.
Posted by Rob Crawford 2013-02-18 14:46||
#6 Iran like other countries is interested in either reclaiming lost territories, or in alternate dev very close diplomatic + trade ties wid same.
IIRC Pakistan's Shias comprise roughly 1/4 of the country's population, + have been there for generations since before the separation/
partition of Muslim Pakistan from Hindu India. IMO its highly unlikely that the bulk of Pakistan's Shia comunity will just up-n-move widout a fight.
That leaves Iran-led external pressure + ultimately possible mil intervention, ostensibly to enforce the unliteral or bilateral protection of Pakistan's Shias from local Sunnis, but perhaps more realistically to ensure Iranian control or domination of Pakistan's LR Nuclear Arsenal.
DETERRING OR DEFEATING A US GROUND WAR AGZ IRAN = IRAN NEEDING TO KEEP USN NUCLEAR CARRIERS + AMPHIBS OUT OF THE PERSIAN GULF AMAP AFAP ALAP = IRAN NEEDS PAK SHIAS TO STAY, NOT LEAVE.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-02-18 22:26||
#7 The Hazaras are once again demanding Pak Govt-Army protection + arrest of Sunni perpetrators while also refusing to bury the bodies of their dead until Islamabad agrees, + Perps caught, punished.
* DEFENCE FORUM INDIA > GENOCIDE OF PAKISTAN'S HAZARA COMMUNITY.
China is Pakistan's BFF, which IMO means that IRan will likely demand that China pressure Pakistan to stop the anti-Shia violence. Iran is also likely to attempt to bring Russia on board - IFF PAKISTAN CANNOT OR WILL NOT STOP THE ANTI-SHIA VIOLENCE, THEN IRAN IS LIKELY TO USE RUSSIA AS A HEDGE/OFFSET AGZ CHINA IN CASE IRAN HAS TO SEND IN ITS ARMY + IRGC INTO PAKISTAN TO QUELL THINGS.
I don't see Rising Iran accepting any option where Pak Shias will be asked or made by Islamabad to up-n-leave Pakistan.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2013-02-18 23:07||