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2005-04-07 Africa: Subsaharan
Marburg Toll In Angola Explodes to 200
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Posted by phil_b 2005-04-07 5:36:16 PM|| || Front Page|| [13 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 OK, don't get your panties in a wad. This epidemic is happening in one of the least healthy places on the planet. The life expectancy in Angola is somewhere around 40-42 years. Everything kills Angolans, not just Marburg.

WHO
Marburg haemorrhagic fever is an extremely rare disease that remains poorly understood. Information on the behaviour of Marburg virus once it enters a human population is sparse. As detailed in a fact sheet recently issued by WHO, the outbreak in Angola is one of only two large outbreaks of this disease that have occurred in indigenous African populations since the virus was first detected in 1967. The only other large outbreak, which began in late 1998 in the Democratic Republic of Congo, was confined to two sparsely populated villages in an isolated corner of the country, caused sporadic cases with small chains of transmission over two years, and never reached the intensity of transmission seen in just the past few weeks in Angola. The outbreak in Angola is not only the largest on record, with the highest fatality, but is also the first to occur in an urban setting.

Almost three decades of civil unrest have left Angola with a severely weakened health infrastructure, a hospital system in dire need of basic equipment and supplies, inadequate communication and transportation systems, and a population weakened by economic hardship. These weaknesses hamper containment efforts, which depend on active surveillance for cases, rapid detection and isolation in specially designated and equipped facilities, and rapid tracing of contacts.


From October 1, 2004 to now there have been 200 cases identified. Even if you double that number to allow for the "outstanding" public health department in Angola, it still is a very minor, VERY MINOR problem.

Dr. Niman is one of the best virologists on the planet. He is also selling his patented systems for analyzing and predicting viral outbreaks. His company, Recombinomics, bases its success on receiving funding in some manner for these methods. He is hardly a disinterested party.

Marburg continues to be spread in the same old way, by intimate personal contact. Barrier methods that are routine for medical professionals in the United States are an absolute preventative. As I have said repeatedly, if it's yucky and it's not yours, don't touch it.

Dr. Niman is now working on a two track approach to funding, avian flu and Marburg. I wish him good luck, but even a thousand dead from Marburg is hardly a cause for a major world panic. In 2002, 16,371 people dies from HIV related causes in the United States alone. NIH

HIV is totally preventable. As is infection by Marburg.

You gotta understand. In a world of 5-6 billion plus people, a couple of hundred dead is statisticly irrelevant. It's tragic, especially to those who die, but it is hardly a sign of the end times.
Posted by Chuck Simmins  2005-04-07 8:46:56 PM|| [http://blog.simmins.org]  2005-04-07 8:46:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Chuck I don't dispute any of what you say (except perhaps the bit about routine barrier methods being an absolute preventative. They failed with SARS in Singapore) but most people don't grasp what exponential means and what doubling over a short period means. Marburg infections are clearly increasing at a rapid rate and we must assume they will continue to increase until they encounter one or more barriers to further spread. That might be a limit to the tranmission chain, preventative measures or some geographic factor. If it doesn't encounter a limiting factor then I can graph an exponential trend as well the next person and in a few months there will be an awful lot of dead people. I also understand about scale problems. Solutions at a small scale don't work at a larger scale. Trace and isolate is one of them. The bigger this gets the closer we get to trace and isolate only slowing the outbreak down rather than reducing it in size. I suspect we have already passed that point given the resources that can be brought to bear. I have said before I don't consider this a risk to developed countries, but until I see evidence of its spread slowing down then I find it ominous for Africa.
Posted by phil_b 2005-04-07 9:18:58 PM||   2005-04-07 9:18:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Phil, I maintain that 200 cases isn't a large enough set to draw any conclusions from. Explosive spread is what we saw with the Spanish Flu at Fort Riley Kansas. On March 11, 1918, 101 men presented with flu symptoms. Within three months the Brits had 31,000 cases. You just do not have enough cases, or enough months, to graph a trend for Marburg.

I am not aware of the failure of barrier methods, universal precautions, in Singapore. I am aware of the scathing report on the SARS cases in Toronto's medical community caused by improper use of precautions and the government declaring the epidemic over when it was not.

I think we'll see hundreds of deaths, and some spread in the region. Tragic, but not earthshattering. Most of these deaths are caused by the physical condition of the patients rather than the disease.
Posted by Chuck Simmins  2005-04-07 11:12:58 PM|| [http://blog.simmins.org]  2005-04-07 11:12:58 PM|| Front Page Top

18:04 phil_b
18:04 phil_b
00:02 Mark Espinola
00:01 Old Patriot
23:59 RWV
23:51 BigEd
23:31 Barbara Skolaut
23:18 Rex Rufus
23:16 Ominter Pheart2665
23:12 Chuck Simmins
23:10 jackal
23:09 Sobiesky
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22:57 DMFD
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22:49 DMFD
22:47 3dc
22:14 Frank G
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