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2025-08-27 Israel-Palestine-Jordan
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Why Europe pretends the Two-State Solution still exists
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| Because it’s a stick to beat Israel with, right? |
[IsraelNationalNews] In recent months, France, the UK, Spain, Ireland, Norway, and Slovenia have all formally recognized a "Palestinian state". Their declarations made headlines and prompted Israeli diplomatic protests. Yet nothing changed on the ground. The foreign-aid-dependent Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas-ruled Gaza will not suddenly turn into a viable state after the planned UN vote next month.
The spectacle raises a blunt question: why does Europe continue to pretend the two-state solution still exists?
| Also the American Democratic Party. |
European leaders do not, in fact, believe in Palestinian Arab sovereignty, nor do they even want it. Recognition functions as a performance — moral theater. It keeps alive an illusion that has long since collapsed. And Europe needs the illusion.
FUNDING THE ILLUSION
Since the Oslo Accords, the European Union has become the PA’s largest donor, with billions in aid keeping its institutions afloat. In April 2025, the EU approved another €1.6 billion package, nominally conditioned on government reforms and revised textbooks that remove antisemitic content. Similar conditions have been imposed before, only to be quietly ignored.
The result is a perverse equilibrium: the PA depends on European money to survive as a non-sovereign political unit, while Europe depends on the PA’s weakness to justify continuing aid. A genuine peace plan would risk either collapse or confrontation. Perpetual subsidy is safer.
European diplomats speak of "incremental progress" toward reform. In reality, the flow of money and conferences has become a holding pattern. The two-state "process" persists as a symbol, even as Palestinian Arab sovereignty recedes further from possibility.
THE SCRIPT
European states announce recognition, a press conference in Dublin or Madrid declares "Palestine" sovereign, and Israel recalls its ambassadors in protest. Then everything resets to default.
Trade between the EU and Israel continues undisturbed, reaching €42.6 billion in 2024 — one-third of Israel’s global trade. EU exports to Israel even rose during the Gaza war. In other words, Europe condemns "settlements" and lectures Israel, but will not disrupt the economic ties that serve its own interests.
Recognition is a symbolic gesture with no policy consequences. Former EU envoy Susanna Terstal admitted as much: "The two-state solution remains the only viable option . . . but it’s getting harder and harder with the passing of time." Analysts at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies were blunter: recognition is "largely symbolic for Palestinians and leaves realities on the ground unchanged."
And here lies a striking contrast: while the United States still has citizens trapped in Gaza, and Russia has pressed for its dual nationals, there are no confirmed European passport holders left among the hostages. Those with European citizenship were either released or killed months ago. Europe can therefore engage in cost-free gestures; its "recognition" carries no personal or political risk tied to citizens still in captivity.
WHY EUROPE DOES NOT WANT A "PALESTINIAN STATE"
Behind the performance lies a deeper truth: most European leaders do not want to see a Palestinian Arab state emerge. They fear the consequences.
Polls show overwhelming Palestinian Arab support for armed groups outside the PA’s control, with 87 percent rejecting the PA’s right to arrest them. That means any sovereign state could quickly come under Hamas or Iranian influence. European intelligence services know that that would mean more terrorism, more instability, and another refugee wave headed their way.
The EU Parliament itself has calculated the cost of terrorism since 2004 at €185 billion in lost GDP and €5.6 billion in lives and damage. With asylum systems already overwhelmed and anti-migrant parties rising, the political cost of another "Gaza" spilling into Europe is unthinkable.
A Palestinian Arab state could also jeopardize Europe’s lucrative ties with Israel. The EU is deeply invested in Israel’s high-tech sector and natural gas imported from the Leviathan and Tamar fields. A Hamas-led state would threaten those flows and destabilize regional allies.
Nor is Europe united. Germany prioritizes Israel’s security. Hungary and Poland resist unilateral recognition. Even when Ireland and Spain make symbolic gestures, the larger powers block meaningful action. The facade of European unity hides national interests that make real sovereignty impossible.
DOMESTIC POLITICS AND LOW-COST DIPLOMACY
So why keep pretending? Because recognition delivers applause from demonstrators in Berlin and London and plays well with progressive elites.
Polls confirm the pressure. In mid-2025, Israel’s favorability hit record lows across Western Europe. In the UK, almost half of voters wanted recognition of "Palestine", while only 14 percent opposed it. Marches and rallies made it politically useful to declare recognition, even knowing it would change nothing.
This is why Europe stages conferences and multilateral summits. The recent Saudi-French conference at the UN was a perfect example: high-level speeches, solemn declarations, and no practical outcomes. Leaders "perform" solidarity without risk.
THE UNINTENDED COST
The performance deceives Palestinian Arabs into believing sovereignty is just around the corner, discouraging reform or compromise. It hardens Israeli skepticism that Europe can ever be a serious partner. And it distracts from new realities in the region, such as the Abraham Accords, which proved that normalization between Israel and Arab states can move forward without Palestinian Arab approval.
Worst of all, this limbo leaves the core problems untouched: Palestinian Arabs remain perpetual refugees wherever they live, with no control over their lives; Israelis remain without security; and the terrorist violence continues. Thus, Europe prolongs the very conflict it claims to oppose.
AND THE SHOW GOES ON
Just one month after October 7th, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell declared that "the best guarantee for Israel’s security is the creation of a 'Palestinian state'." And the EU continues to proclaim that fiction over Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s condemnations that this would be a victory for terrorism.
The upcoming UN vote promises to be another spectacle that will only succeed in increasing the antisemitic attacks against Jews and the one Jewish state, that small point on the map comprising 0.3% of the Middle East land area, that they like to accuse of expansionism and genocide against her neighbors. All because it flatters their sense of moral authority and not because it will deliver sovereignty or peace.
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Posted by Grom the Affective 2025-08-27 00:00||
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