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2006-08-02 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Mike 2006-08-02 10:44|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 "Winning" is (individually or in groups) taking out pieces of kak like this lad. The more you take out, the longer you continue to win. Just my two farthings worth.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (Arabic: ÃÈæãÕÚÈ ÇáÒÑÞÇæíý) (October 20, 1966 June 7, 2006) was a member of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, a militant group in Iraq. [1]. One or more individuals identifying themselves as Zarqawi took responsibility, on several audiotapes, for numerous acts of violence in Iraq and Jordan. These acts include suicide bombings and the killing of soldiers, police officers, and civilians.

As an Islamist identified with the Salafi movement, Zarqawi opposed the presence of United States and Western military forces in the Islamic world and opposed the West's support for and the existence of Israel. In September 2005, he reportedly declared "all-out war" on Shia Muslims in Iraq [2] and is believed responsible for dispatching numerous Al-Qaeda suicide bombers throughout Iraq, especially to areas with large concentrations of Shia civilians. As the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq he is suspected of causing thousands of people's deaths many, if not most of them, civilians.

Posted by Besoeker 2006-08-02 10:55|| 2006-08-02 10:55|| Front Page Top

#2 Drip, drip, drip. Maybe Jim Geraghty is just stupid. Maybe he thinks this is a parlor game. Whatever. Go ahead and help the enemy, Jim, if it makes you feel important. Forget about those women and children whose deaths you are encouraging the Jihadis to put before the bombs to further their cause. Imparting your pearls of wisdom is so much more important than them.

Sheesh - what a bunch of fools. This game is for keeps. Bout time these drooling idiots figure that out.

Posted by 2b 2006-08-02 10:55|| 2006-08-02 10:55|| Front Page Top

#3 No ONE is winning!!!! IT'S A QUAGMIRE!!!!!!

Posted by ARMYGUY 2006-08-02 11:23|| 2006-08-02 11:23|| Front Page Top

#4 Maybe Jim Geraghty is just stupid.

No, he lives in Turkey. He lives among the enemies of civilization and he's starting to go native.

Posted by Rob Crawford">Rob Crawford 2006-08-02 11:37|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2006-08-02 11:37|| Front Page Top

#5 why are you attacking Geraghty? He seems more optimistic than some. What exactly did he write that was offensive.

Israel has to live in this region. They need to win wars, not just fight them. And by that, I mean they need to win specific wars, not just chalk it some "war of civilizations" in general.

This war is costing Israel in lives, weapons, and money. And possibly, at least in the short term, in political influence among the non-Shia in Lebanon. Its not unreasonable to want them to get the maximum degradation of Hezb capabilities possible for that. And to ask how much theyve gotten.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-02 11:45|| 2006-08-02 11:45|| Front Page Top

#6 2b, Rob: Are you sure you read the same article I posted? By the same Jim Geraghty? I mean, I don't intend to get snarky or anything, but your comments don't seem like a response to what Geraghty actually wrote.

Posted by Mike 2006-08-02 11:49|| 2006-08-02 11:49|| Front Page Top

#7 israel is winning, we are winning

Posted by Legolas 2006-08-02 11:49|| 2006-08-02 11:49|| Front Page Top

#8 I have to disagree with your assessment of this particular article, 2b: He's entirely correct that some initial pounding against a determined enemy appears to be fruitless, only to have a breakout occur that radically shifts the situation in a short period of time. The key is recognizing such breakouts and exploiting them, as well as being willing to do the necessary long and hard slogging to create the situation that, in turn, creates the breakout. Patton and Napoleon were good at recognizing these sorts of situations, and I believe that Mohammed was pretty good at this as well.

It's a bit strange to assert that Mr. Geraghty's helping the opposition: he cites the failure of the CSM's "military" "commentator" in the light of subsequent events to prove his case.

If he was addressing this to me, I would believe he was saying "Keep pounding away, and stay prepared to exploit the situation when it breaks."

Posted by Ptah">Ptah 2006-08-02 12:02|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2006-08-02 12:02|| Front Page Top

#9 Any group that engages in war but cannot take casualties, will lose. In a proper attack, every one involved must accept the possibility that he will die trying, or succeed.
Israeli politicians either do not realize the finality of the muslim position, or they do not want to offend their own cowards with open truth about the need for a total offensive.
I agree with disinformation as a useful tool during war times, so the lack of good data coming from Israel is fine by me.
And, I know I speak for a lot of hard asses when I say I hope we can get our dog in this fight.

Posted by wxjames 2006-08-02 12:15|| 2006-08-02 12:15|| Front Page Top

#10 WTF?

I don't see anything in this article that's even pessimistic, much less anything that "helps the enemy."

What Geraghty is saying is, "Don't be dismayed by what might appear to be lack of progress on Israel's part: they're prepping the battlefield. Just as with Afghanistan in 2001, we're likely to see little progress right up until the enemy is ready to collapse-- and then they will go in a heap, all at once."

Posted by Dave D">Dave D 2006-08-02 12:23|| 2006-08-02 12:23|| Front Page Top

#11 For now Israel seems to be loosing. And that is what i expect to be happening in the end. One exemple: the stupid remarks Olmert made about Judeia Samaria at time of War.

Posted by Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 12:44|| 2006-08-02 12:44|| Front Page Top

#12 Hizballah launched 200 rockets today...

Posted by Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 12:45|| 2006-08-02 12:45|| Front Page Top

#13 I received orders to move against Colonel Thomas Harris, who was said to be encamped at the town of Florida, some twenty-five miles south of were we then wereHarris had been encamped in a creek bottom for the sake of being near water. The hills on either side of the creek extended to a considerable height, possibly more than a hundred feet. As we approached the brow of the hill from which was expected we could see Harris camp, and possibly find his men ready formed to meet us, my heart kept getting higher and higher until it felt to me as though it was in my throat. I would have given anything then to have been back in Illinois, but I had not the moral courage to halt and consider what to do; I kept right on. When we reached a point from which the valley below was in full view I halted. The place where Harris had been encamped a few days before was still there and the marks of recent encampment were plainly visible, but the troops were gone. My heart resumed its place. It occurred to me at once that Harris had been as much afraid of me as I had been of him. This was a view of the question I had never taken before; but it was one I never forgot afterwards. From that event to the close of the war, I never experienced trepidation upon confronting an enemy, though I always felt more or less anxiety. I never forgot that he had as much reason to fear my forces as I had his. I never forgot that lesson. Personal Memoirs of U.S. Grant

Posted by Ebbolush Clolutch6677 2006-08-02 12:50|| 2006-08-02 12:50|| Front Page Top

#14 I think Israel is starting to shape the battlefield. For two weeks now they have been making foray into the Lebanese border region. Hezbollah has dug in and are facing Israel. all of a sudden, the IDF is concetrating its effort in the Bekka. Now Hezbollah at the border has to watch in both directions knowing its supply chain and retreat may be broken. Hezbolah positions are now entirely defensive. Unfortunately, their rockets are offense weapons and are meaningless in the true battle.

Posted by john">john 2006-08-02 14:59|| 2006-08-02 14:59|| Front Page Top

#15 Is Israel really focusing on the Bekaa? As far as I can glean all theyve done is a quick commando strike there, while most of their force is focused South of the Litani. Now the Bekaa strike may be good 4th Gen warfare, keeping your adversary off balance, but if its the focus of the fighting, I dont see it.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-02 15:05|| 2006-08-02 15:05|| Front Page Top

#16 No it isnt. I dont think they are concentrating in anything.

Posted by Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 15:26|| 2006-08-02 15:26|| Front Page Top

#17 Last night in the O-Club (22:38 posting), our good friend Old Spook had this to say:

FINALLY! This info is public in multiple sources so I can talk about it.

Israel has turned Syria's flank - they've inserted regular troops and SpecOps units far into the Bekaa (and likely will pull them quickly), and like I said it would, that opens the road to Damascus.

Take a look at the terrain in the region: between Israel and Damascus is the Golan - and its not tanker country - hills, mountains, and decades of Syrian fortifications. Now look to the west of Damascus - much better terrain. Check your history books as well - its the same approach Allenby used in WW1 to take Damascus, flank it from the Levant. with irregualrs along the other routes.

The Israelis, if they want to, are now capable of launching a blitz to Damascus the way the WW2 Germans flanked the Maginot line by way of the low countries and the Ardennes.

This is a very clear signal to the Syrian leadership to shut up and back away. Essentially Israel has put a knife to Assad's throat.

About time.

Its still dangerous out there, there are a lot of bad men doing bad things and bad trends. But the bad guys haven't won them all yet - there have been victories that can't be mentioned, and there are deltas that are changing in the right direction (remember your calculus).

Pray that things hold together, given time we can deal with them properly.

Posted by Mike 2006-08-02 15:35|| 2006-08-02 15:35|| Front Page Top

#18 I dont understand why some people that enters in whisfull thinking.
So a samll force that was inserted in Balbeek was in the news shortly afterwards. But a bigger force is in secret there. Where are the news of combats?

Posted by Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 15:42|| 2006-08-02 15:42|| Front Page Top

#19 Why do you think that if you don't have media accounts, no important operations are happening, CU2772? Most reporters couldn't correctly describe a successful engagement if one occurred in front of them.

Besides which, it's a serious mistake to assume that combat is the only sign of military success. Destroying command and control infrastructure, interdicting the Syrian/Iranian rearming of Hezb'Allah,selected capture or killing of key leaders, information gathering ... all of these are legitimate and highly useful outcomes from a surgical insertion (and removal) of forces in an area like the Bekaa.

Posted by lotp 2006-08-02 16:26|| 2006-08-02 16:26|| Front Page Top

#20 I dont see any hit or degradation in Hizb command structure. When IAF stopped for 48hr the rockets were few. After Israel raid you have +200 rockets as retaliation. So where are the hits in command structure?

Posted by Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 16:49|| 2006-08-02 16:49|| Front Page Top

#21 "Why do you think that if you don't have media accounts, no important operations are happening, CU2772?"

Yes. Because they get noticed. Like the Balbeek raid.

Posted by Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 16:50|| 2006-08-02 16:50|| Front Page Top

#22 CU2772, it's pretty clear you have no military training. Worse -- you seem to be enmeshed in the sort of fantasy thinking that has caused the Arab world endless poverty and futility.

And that's a shame, because I would be happy to see the muslim world as a whole, including the Arab world from whose culture so much has been absorbed by other muslims, be prosperous, peaceful and contributing to the world.

Instead, despite the vast oil riches of some muslim countries, the muslim world is not only not growing in those aspects, it is declining rapidly.

At some point Muslims and their sympathizers are going to have to give up the Jew/Israel hatred and actually live in the real world, where your choices have had disastrous consequences. And that will mean telling the truth about events and focusing on actual facts, rather than relying on manipulating appearances to create emotional responses. Europe is far down the path of having made the same substitition -- and it is the cause of the erosion and dry rot in European culture over the last 30 years or so.

A propaganda war will succeed, for a while. Ultimately, though, facts have a way of intruding on fantasies.

It is one thing to do barbarian style, destructive raids against Israel and the West. It's quite another thing to create a successful, thriving civilization. The terror cells nurtured in the Islamic world are reasonably good at the former, not surprisingly since it is the way of war embedded in Arab culture for millenia.

After a while, though, the accomplishments of the civilizations they have lived off of fade away. And what is left is, once again, poverty, ignorance and deep inequality. Even if the Islamacists succeed in destroying the West, history shows there is little to no chance that the resulting society will be any better than the mess that currently exists in most Muslim countries. Because what would be needed is to come to grips with facts -- and if the Muslim world in general were doing that, they wouldn't be so focused on Israel and would instead be creating that society right now.

A pity -- but also a ruthless reality.

Posted by lotp 2006-08-02 17:15|| 2006-08-02 17:15|| Front Page Top

#23 Clerert Uneamp2772, usually it's the un-noticed operations that may have more strategic value.

I consider the raid as serving 3 purposes:

1. It is a good PR.
2. Although the main baddie was not apprehended, some other baddies were. They're an asset in any case, especially if there is a IRG member amongst the captured terrs.
3. Diversion. Nuff said.

To get a bit insight into importance of ops that are out of the public eye, let me introduce you to The Man Who Never Was.

"The Man Who Never Was" Launches Operation Mincemeat (April 30, 1943)

A Spanish fisherman discovered the body of Major William Martin, a British Royal Marines courier. There was a briefcase attached to the dead man's wrist, which contained personal correspondence and documents related to the impending Allied invasion of Sardinia, in Greece. Spanish authorities notified the Germans, who moved quickly to fortify the Greek coast, leaving Sicily almost completely undefended. This was exactly what the Allies had intended.

"Major Martin," also known as "The Man Who Never Was," was an unwitting player in one of the greatest military hoaxes of World War II. The Allies had been planning an invasion of Sicily (and not Sardinia) for some time. Sicily, however, is mountainous, and therefore easier to defend than to attack. It is also so strategically located that the Germans were almost definitely expecting an attempt to dislodge them from it. And the buildup of troops and equipment that would be necessary for the invasion were certain to attract attention. If "Operation Husky," as the invasion was known, was to be a success, rather than a slaughter, the enemy's command must be led astray. Squadron Leader Sir Archibald Cholmondley, of the British Intelligence interservice XX Committee (XX for double cross) suggested that a set of false plans should be planted on a dead man, who would deliver them into the enemy's hands. This obviated any concern that the chosen spy could turn out to be a double agent, as well as ensuring that he wouldn't break under torture and confess whatever he knew about the true nature of his mission. Cholmondley entrusted the details of the mission to Lieutenant Commander Ewen Montagu of Naval Intelligence.

It was Montagu's idea that "Martin" should appear to have drowned, probably after his plane crashed off the coast of Spain. This necessitated finding a corpse whose lungs were already full of fluid, so that any doctors who examined the body would accept that he had been at sea for some time. He found a 34-year-old man who had recently died of pneumonia brought on by ingesting rat poison. The man would have been dead for some time before he fell into enemy hands, but the effects of salt water upon the corpse would disguise the inevitable decomposition. Intelligence secretaries pitched in to write love letters to "Martin," and one of them even donated a picture of herself in a swimsuit--ostensibly a photo of the dead man's fiancee, Pam. Cholmondley carried the letters in his wallet for several weeks, to give them an authentically worn appearance. "Martin's" personality was further enhanced by an irate letter from his bank manager, a stern letter from his father, a few overdue bills, a replacement military I.D. card, matchbooks, theatre tickets, keys... All the personal detritus of a likable young man who might be somewhat careless in his personal affairs (and thus more likely to wind up face-down on a beach in Spain), but who was doubtless quite good at his job. These items went into the briefcase with the documents that told of the Allies' plans to invade Sardinia.

"Operation Mincemeat," as Cholmondley had dubbed his master plan, was well under way. All that remained was to escort poor "Major Martin" into enemy territory. The body was packed in dry ice, and put aboard the British submarine HMS/M Seraph, under the command of Lieutenant Commander N. A. "Bill" Jewell. Just off the port of Huelva, Lt. Jewell said a short prayer, and Seraph gave "Major Martin" into the arms of the sea.

The discovery of the body didn't end the charade. The Allies were well aware that the Abwehr (German intelligence) would be watching them closely. Britain demanded that Spain return "Martin's" briefcase; after the requisite amount of diplomatic posturing, they did. It appeared to be untouched, but microscopic examination of the contents revealed that they had been carefully studied. "Martin" himself was buried in Huelva, with full military honors. His grieving fiancee sent flowers to adorn his grave. (And up until 1994, someone came regularly to lay red carnations there, but no one ever saw who it was.) On June 4, The Times included his name in the casualty lists. The Germans were completely convinced. Within days of "Martin's" appearance on the Spanish coast, Montagu telegraphed Winston Churchill to say "Mincemeat swallowed whole." On May 12, Adolph Hitler sent out an order: "Measures regarding Sardinia and the Peloponnese take precedence over everything else." He sent a Panzer division to Greece from France, ordered two Panzer divisions in Russia to prepare to move to Greece as well (and this just before the great tank battle at Kursk), and moved an extra Waffen SS brigade into the area. He thought he was well-prepared.

On July 9, 1943, the Allies moved. They concentrated their assault on the southern tip of Sicily, well away from the troops massed at the northern end, facing Sardinia. The Italian divisions collapsed almost immediately. The Germans, under Field Marshal Albert Kesselring, fell back to Messina. They resisted as well as they could, but Hitler still had it in his mind that the real attack would be in Greece, so they were not reinforced. On July 23, in fact, Hitler ordered Field Marshal Erwin Rommel to oversee the forces protecting Sardinia. By August 17, General George S. Patton and Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery had taken Sicily, due in large part to the efforts of a man who was dead before his mission even began.

Posted by twobyfour 2006-08-02 17:40|| 2006-08-02 17:40|| Front Page Top

#24 "#22 CU2772, it's pretty clear you have no military training."

It's pretty clear you dont know me. And it's pretty clear you didnt answer anything i said.
Which was there werent any big operation going on in Baalbek
Not you and not twobyfour.

For good news at least somone put a clue in most cluess PM i saw waging a war:
14:46 PDT Ehud Olmert has decided to defer further realignment a phrase for territorial withdrawal for the present. From the conversation I had with the prime minister he will not deal with the realignment plan at all now we will conduct the arguments only after the war. (Ynet)

Posted by Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 18:42|| 2006-08-02 18:42|| Front Page Top

#25 And it's pretty clear you didnt answer anything i said.

Actually, I did, but you don't seem to have noticed. Gerahty's right when he says, "Like the sculptor, a military campaign can have no visible signs of progress until there is a sudden change, reflecting the impact of all the accumulated actions."

Whether that is happening in Bekaa, remains to be seen. But the point is still valid: it isn't only the "big operations" that matter and are useful.

Posted by lotp 2006-08-02 19:19|| 2006-08-02 19:19|| Front Page Top

#26 "But the point is still valid: it isn't only the "big operations" that matter and are useful."

Where i denied that?

Posted by Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 20:15|| 2006-08-02 20:15|| Front Page Top

#27
"...correspondence and documents related to the impending Allied invasion of Sardinia, in Greece."

Great story, even greater deception of the Nazis! One problem with your version though, "Sardinia" is not in Greece.

That red blob to the East of the Italian boot is Sardinia. As you can see, it's nowhere near Greece.

-M

Posted by Manolo 2006-08-02 20:26|| 2006-08-02 20:26|| Front Page Top

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