Article

2008-08-31 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

New Orleans under IMMEDIATE evacuation order.

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Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-31 00:00|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 From around the web:

Gustav has settled into alignment with the other weather systems in the region, and it will probably not deviate from its present track before Gulf Coast landfall. Because it is moving faster than previous projections suggested, it will bring more of its force to the coast.

If landfall occurs near Atchafalaya Bay or further west, the eyewall will pass safely SW of New Orleans. In that case conditions at the city should not severe enough to breach major levees, unless they are weaker than they were before Katrina. But if landfall occurs near Grand Isle, then New Orleans will be hammered by the northeast quadrant of the storm the strongest part.

Yesterday's GFDL model shows category 4 winds blowing water directly into Lake Pontchartrain.

In such a scenario water would flood into the city from the lake, which could drown the city again, and possibly to an even worse degree.

10 PM EDT: New 0000 UTC model runs have clustered on the menacing Grand Isle landfall. Only a few take the storm to SW Louisiana now. The 11 PM NHC advisory will be suitably grave. New Orleans is really at risk now.

Nagin said he expects Gustav to punch holes in the Harvey Canal, which will cause the West Bank to become a bath tub.

The West Bank has 8-foot-high to 10-foot-high protection; Gustavs storm surge may be 15-, to 18- to 24-feet high.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-31 00:10|| 2008-08-31 00:10|| Front Page Top

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-31 00:11|| 2008-08-31 00:11|| Front Page Top

#3 If it gets steered straightoin the path, and goes a bit east, New Orleans is toast.

If it slows a bit, it will fade slighty west, and will weaken a lot quicker, as well as steering the worst of the surge and NE quadrant winds off of New Orleans, probably sparing it.

Both scenarios are possible, neither has been ruled out.

Lets hope the latter scenario is what happens.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-31 00:14|| 2008-08-31 00:14|| Front Page Top

#4 You can follow the water vapor imagery at:

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us.html

Posted by mhw 2008-08-31 00:23|| 2008-08-31 00:23|| Front Page Top

#5 Well, there be a reason that area of our continent is shaped the way it is: BIG storms. Hope everyone gets out and doesn't just think it will blow over. Better safe than sorry, as the saying goes.

Posted by ex-lib 2008-08-31 00:33|| 2008-08-31 00:33|| Front Page Top

#6 Here's an article on the hurricane hunters flying into Gustav.

Posted by Steve White 2008-08-31 00:45|| 2008-08-31 00:45|| Front Page Top

#7 NOAA National Weather Service office in Slidell, La., which serves New Orleans, issued a statement that explicitly described the impending catastrophic damage expected from Katrina. Here is the original statement issued the day before Hurricane Katrina made landfall. This is known as an inland hurricane warning.

WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

Posted by gromky 2008-08-31 02:36|| 2008-08-31 02:36|| Front Page Top

#8 buses.....we need buses..........

Posted by no mo uro 2008-08-31 06:40|| 2008-08-31 06:40|| Front Page Top

#9 An amazing demonstration that some in NOLA are not stuck on stupid.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-08-31 07:23|| 2008-08-31 07:23|| Front Page Top

#10 This is perfect opportunity to declare Mother Nature and Lake Ponchatrain the winners and make it a PERMANENT evacuation order.

Posted by Besoeker 2008-08-31 08:18|| 2008-08-31 08:18|| Front Page Top

#11 For once, the insurance companies may do something useful.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-08-31 08:27|| 2008-08-31 08:27|| Front Page Top

#12 Closest approach is 50 nm southwest of NOLA, coming in over Terrebonne Bay at Cocodrie. The track hasn't changed appreciably in the last six hours.

Posted by KBK 2008-08-31 09:49|| 2008-08-31 09:49|| Front Page Top

#13 Gromky, I'd like to point out that with that Katrina warning, at least for New Orleans, most of that DIDN'T HAPPEN.

Many buildings sustained only minor wind damage only to be rendered unfit for habitation by the flooding.

Posted by Phil 2008-08-31 11:55|| 2008-08-31 11:55|| Front Page Top

#14 Here's hoping Glenmore and the rest of the 'burgians in the danger zone have found safe shelter or are almost there. Take care, guys.

Posted by Swamp Blondie in the Cornfields 2008-08-31 12:14|| 2008-08-31 12:14|| Front Page Top

#15 Blondie, I ain't worried, this isn't even a new storm coming ashore here. It's just a rerun of Andrew.

Posted by Phil 2008-08-31 12:16|| 2008-08-31 12:16|| Front Page Top

#16 Katrina weakened to a Cat 3 and passed by NOLA 25 nm to the east. New Orleans wasn't in the dangerous semicircle and didn't get all that much wind, maybe 90 kt. Think Gulfport and Biloxi, which were in a similar position to Katrina that New Orleans is to Gustav, though more exposed. The best hope is that Gustav will weaken and not move to the east of the track it's been holding. At the time the above statement was made, Katrina was a 150 kt Cat 5. Luckily, she weakened, and we can hope for the same.

Katrina Radar

Posted by KBK 2008-08-31 13:20|| 2008-08-31 13:20|| Front Page Top

#17 Andrew hit Louisiana at 100 kt and nearly twice as far from NOLA as Gustav's current track. Gustav is still rated as 115 kt at landfall, a very strong Cat 3.

Posted by KBK 2008-08-31 13:39|| 2008-08-31 13:39|| Front Page Top

#18 The DOD briefing on Fox News just reported that a RCAF C-17 is being tasked as part of the NORTHCOM response. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all the Americans in the Gulf. Be safe.

Posted by djh_usmc 2008-08-31 15:19|| 2008-08-31 15:19|| Front Page Top

#19 Good thing if it stays Cat3, there is a massive difference in storm sure piled up by a long lived 4 versus a short lived 3. ANd they seem to be trending it west, which is even better for NOLA.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-31 16:53|| 2008-08-31 16:53|| Front Page Top

#20 National Weather Service office in Slidell, La.,

Grab yur kittuah, small animals might be alarmed sez forcaster in small N. Fla Burg.

Sez gawds are angrified and need panic. Yankees and old farts first to wet pants. Thousands to die, or not, depending on things, pain in the butt for sure tho say locals.

Posted by .5MT 2008-08-31 17:06|| www.cybernations.net]">[www.cybernations.net] 2008-08-31 17:06|| Front Page Top

#21 I just watched Jindal doing the pre-storm informational press conference. This guy has his shit together. I am soooo impressed. What an improvement over Blanco

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-08-31 18:57|| 2008-08-31 18:57|| Front Page Top

#22 Looking like it will make shore S of Houma.

Hopefully it slides just a little west and doesnt really intensify much more. If it does that, then NOLA is proabaly going to stay unflooded.

Lucky that it got a lot more disorganized over Cuba than was expected.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-31 20:42|| 2008-08-31 20:42|| Front Page Top

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