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2007-11-07 India-Pakistan

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Posted by 2007-11-07 00:00|| || Front Page|| [7 views ] Top

#1 given the size and strength of the Islamist threat, and given the unique social role of Pakistans army, a military government may be the only real bulwark against the potential disaster of a nuclear-armed al-Qaedastan.

Golly, effing, gee! Where have I ever heard that one before?!?

Military morale is at its nadir. And although Pakistan has suffered defeats in war, there is no historical precedent for this sort of collapse of morale and discipline.

Someone please note what major victories the Pakistani military has to its credit?

Unfortunately, the military is just about the only Pakistani state institution that actually works.

Oh, pluheese. Mass surrenders put the lie to that one toot sweet.

Pakistans military is an almost totally free-standing institution a sort of state within a state. The military largely controls its own appointments, and even has independent sources of revenue which limit its reliance on public taxation especially for its generous pensions and benefits system. At first, this amounted to, say, the Pakistani air force operating the nations air line industry. But under Musharraf, the military, both directly, and through its retired officers (who often leave service in their 40's), now controls vast sections of Pakistans state apparatus and economy everything from universities, to the post office, to companies that make cement, soap, and even breakfast cereal.

Hellooooo, Red China!

If a nationwide Islamist assault awakes a sleeping giant of pro-sharia sentiment in Pakistans heartland, and also splits the army, the resulting chaos could put an Islamist state or at least a nuclear bomb or two within Osamas reach.

Which could just as easily prove to be Pakistan's death knell. Be very, very careful what you wish for.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-11-07 02:11|| 2007-11-07 02:11|| Front Page Top

#2 Pakistan is an enemy today---a covert one. Maybe, it becoming an overt one, will lead to something being done about it.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2007-11-07 02:38|| 2007-11-07 02:38|| Front Page Top

#3 Zen, it is not clear to me that the 'mass surrenders' or other defeats of the Paki army in the NWFT indicate anything about the capabilities of the 'real' Paki army. Not only were those guys nowhere near the best Paki forces, it is possible they were not even really Paki forces at all - they may have 'volunteered' for the frontier guard just so they could surrender to the 'bunny forces and embarass Mushie (and get paid by both sides for so doing.)
This is not to say the real Paki army is 'good' - merely that one should not confidently say they are hopeless based on these examples.

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2007-11-07 08:28|| 2007-11-07 08:28|| Front Page Top

#4 I don't see Pakistan as an enemy, not yet. I see Musharraf as being in the same sort of place as the Shah in 1978. WE may have to hold our noses at what he does to beat down the nuts because his losing power would be far worse.

Posted by rjschwarz 2007-11-07 13:38|| 2007-11-07 13:38|| Front Page Top

#5 lets say, as is possible, that the military cuts and runs completely from the NWFP and hands it to AQ. How exactly does that give AQ nukes?

The nukes are presumably not located in NWFP. Is there any real chance AQ could take over Punjab or Sindh? If there is, Kurtz certainly hasnt made the case for it.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2007-11-07 16:23|| 2007-11-07 16:23|| Front Page Top

#6 Presume for a moment that Mushariff cuts off the NWFP, no news in or out, and lets the Yanks level it. How does that give AQ nukes either? Once that was done he could send in Pakistani troops to take credit and be ready for an election.

Posted by rjschwarz 2007-11-07 16:59|| 2007-11-07 16:59|| Front Page Top

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