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#1 I would agree... if everything stays on the current trend.
However, if the world economy collapses I predict that these scientists prediction will go right down the toilet.
Posted by DarthVader 2012-11-25 00:52||
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2012-11-25 02:20||
#3 They probably said the exact same thing during the fading years of the Roman Empire. "People are so 'enlightened' now that war is no needed.".
We saw how that ended.
Posted by CrazyFool 2012-11-25 02:40||
#4 Will the JudeoChristian US-West includ Russia accept on par a large number of Islamic nuclear powers???
OTHER > IIRC TOPIX, WORLD NEWS = MARITIME DISPUTES IN EAST ASIA RUN DEEPER THAN ECONOMICS.
"Manifest Destiny", territorial claims, and historical ethno-political rivalries.
In the 5000 years of recorded/known human history, Mankind has known only a few years of peace.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-11-25 02:41||
#5 Until such statistical models demonstrate the capacity to accurately predict the past, I have no confidence that they can predict the future. The same claims were/are made for global warming, after all.
Posted by trailing wife 2012-11-25 06:09||
#6 Good idea Darth. They should print that prediction on toilet paper. AH, Capitalism. Call it operation clean sweep.
Posted by Dale 2012-11-25 07:50||
#7 The thing that irks me the most about this type of BS is that I know better. With degrees in Political "Science" (I know, consider my curriculum choices as a casualty of Vietnam) and Computers with 30+ years of experience, much of it in modelling, GIGO!!
There is no way any model truly works given the quality of input that this shite (and AGCC) gets.
Figures don't lie, liars figure.
Posted by AlanC 2012-11-25 09:22||
#8 Got that 1938 feelin' all over.
Posted by no mo uro 2012-11-25 09:28||
#9 If you bought the statistical analysis of The Population Bomb, a book written by Stanford University Professor Paul R. Ehrlich, we'd all be living from one starvation to another on this planet by now.
Even after the apogee of the Roman Empire things didn't disintegrate immediately. The core of the empire still had a good 'peaceful' period, before the rumblings along the borders made themselves known outside the walls. If you were a patrician inside those walls, the world looked certainly more civil than during the time Hannibal was running rampant throughout Italy. It'd be a few more decades later that it would be Vandals instead.
Posted by Procopius2k 2012-11-25 09:50||
#10 Mods should add the Pollyanna pic to complement the confidence meter.
Posted by PBMcL 2012-11-25 10:34||
#11 these people are living in a bubble.
I suggest that they move their investigation team to some cozy "failed state" in the third world. then give the research another go. :-)
Posted by Raider 2012-11-25 12:16||
#12 Actually Raider, the data has validity. The amount of conflicts has been going down over the years. Internal state kills have been about the same, but armies going at each other has been going down. I would argue that the collapse of the Soviet Union and the stabilizing presence of the US has helped tremendously.
Now that the US is starting to retreat from the world stage, the "hot spots" that have been simmering for decades are starting to come alive again. If the US continues to withdraw, or has Zero bumble more policy then more conflicts will erupt. Add global economic collapse and the shortage of food, medicine and goods and the amount of conflict will skyrocket.
Posted by DarthVader 2012-11-25 13:42||
#13 "If the US continues to withdraw, or has Zero bumble more policy then more conflicts will erupt. Add global economic collapse and the shortage of food, medicine and goods and the amount of conflict will skyrocket."
Works for me, Darth. The "world" has been complaining about the U.S. for decades (while taking our money); let 'em find out (again) what the world is like without Pax Americana. >:-(
Posted by Barbara 2012-11-25 16:59||
#14 Like battle plans no prediction survives initial contact.
Posted by JimK 2012-11-25 17:36||
#15 I know Barbara, the temptation is there (I know I've said it many a time). But the last couple times we withdrew from the world two world wars erupted. With the EU crumbling, debt everywhere and no stabilizing influence, another Hitler or Stalin WILL show up on the world stage. We've been down this road before and it is covered with hundreds of thousands of dead Americans and millions of dead people around the world.
Posted by DarthVader 2012-11-25 18:28||
#16 And there's the one little catch about being an 'island nation' - at some point there is no where else to go, and your beaches are being stormed.
Posted by Pappy 2012-11-25 19:47||
#17 I will agree that war will end soon - but only if the Mayan calendar people are right. War will exist until man dies out; it's in our DNA.
Posted by Glenmore 2012-11-25 21:21||