Article

2004-06-02 Arabia

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Posted by Steve White 2004-06-02 12:06:25 AM|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 ".com's info confirmed by al-Guardian."
But that was yesterday! WTF has he done for me today?

"Betcha Prince Najaf knows 'em all."
I'll bet you're right, Dr S. Sigh. Y'know, I don't wanna have to kill 'em, but with friends like Nayef, they be lookin' like toast to me. I've asked The Religious Policeman to try to explain the Abdullah, Nayef, and Turki situation, any way he sees fit. If he ever answers, I'll post it. Meanwhile, back at the armory...

Thx for the post, Dr Steve, this is one of the pieces I read confirming that many Expat groups are doing their best Snagglepuss imitation:
"Heavens to Murgatroid! Exit, double quick time, stage right!"

Posted by .com 2004-06-02 12:42:14 AM|| 2004-06-02 12:42:14 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Thus making it twice as hard for terrorists to slip into compounds of ex-pat workers.

But Steve, what's 2 x 0?

Posted by Edward Yee 2004-06-02 12:53:58 AM|| [http://edwardyee.fanworks.net] 2004-06-02 12:53:58 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 500 to 700 hundred? Sounds low for an industrialized country, in the heart of an industrialized mideast happy place.

Dot, how could anyone stay without being rambo ready?

Posted by Lucky 2004-06-02 1:32:56 AM|| 2004-06-02 1:32:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Well, there are 4 types of American Expats there (I won't speak for people from other societies, adjust to taste):
1. Money Whores
2. Exiles - IRS, Divorce Alimony, Suit Judgements, etc.
3. Incompetents
4. Adventurers

There are some pretty compelling reasons there, and each has varying degrees, and someone could have more than one reason. Only a #1 who's done most of what he set out to do or a #4 who's seen enough weirdness can reasonably say, "Well, that's enough of that! I'm outta here! The others? What's their desperation quotient? Note that #3's won't help the Saudis keep things going, either.

Problem is, you aren't allowed to be armed - that's a very paranoid society. They're overflowing with arms, obviously, coming in from Yemen, etc. but YOU aren't allowed any! I had a hickory axe handle in my car. Best thing I could lay my hands on.

Posted by .com 2004-06-02 1:57:30 AM|| 2004-06-02 1:57:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Anyone see parallels with the end of the Shah's regime in Iran? Or am i just being paranoid?

Posted by Not Mike Moore 2004-06-02 2:13:28 AM|| 2004-06-02 2:13:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Excellent observation and question. (This is off the top of my head, so be tolerant!) And not an easy one except in the patronage system. In Saudi there are so many Royals, each with overlapping allied tribes and clans. I don't think the Shah had anywhere near as many people directly dependent upon him remaining in power for their status and livelihood. In Saudi, the Wahhabis are really outsiders in this game who've been bought off. They command the restless youth, mainly, while the Royals control the top tier of tribes who control the next tier, etc - of the parents of these jobless cannon fodder kids. The under-25's, though, are over 50% of the population... So it's a demographic powder keg - with very tight wrapping (alliances / loyalties)... that usually means a big boom, no?

That's all observation - ramifications, depth of loyalty, etc? Over my head. I think you need a lifer or a native to tell us how thick - or thin - those lines are, heh.

Posted by .com 2004-06-02 2:26:19 AM|| 2004-06-02 2:26:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 This post by the Religious Policeman strongly implies that the majority of Saudis support al Qaeda, and also support terrorist activity in SA as long as Muslims are not targeted. The #6 comment indicates this also - if Wahhabis command the restless youth, they command the majority of the population. I think the current regime will be replaced by Taliban-style rule. #4 has shed some light on the continuing puzzle of why any "infidels" dare to live in SA at all.

Posted by Tresho 2004-06-02 5:01:17 AM|| 2004-06-02 5:01:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 NMM, I think Eastern Europe is a better model. Perhaps Romania - progressively more brutal repression of overt dissent, then it just crumbles in a few of days. Watch for Princes heading for the airport. I also think a Yemeni style civil war is a distinct possibility.

BTW the media is completely ignoring the real reason why SA is inherently unstable, which is the number of princes that need to put on the royal payroll is exploding.

Posted by Phil B 2004-06-02 5:20:19 AM|| 2004-06-02 5:20:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 NMM: Anyone see parallels with the end of the Shah's regime in Iran? Or am i just being paranoid?

No parallels - the Shah was secular - the Saudis are Wahhabi. Instead of backing him up with arms shipments and American troops, Jimmy Carter persuaded the Shah to leave. GWB will *not* allow the House of Saud to fall to al Qaeda.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-06-02 9:46:00 AM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-06-02 9:46:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Tresho: I think the current regime will be replaced by Taliban-style rule.

No chance of this happening. The US military will intervene to prevent al Qaeda taking over. An al Qaeda state with a hundred billion dollars of annual oil revenue will be able to stage attacks that make 9/11 look like a minor incident.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-06-02 9:49:26 AM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-06-02 9:49:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 #4 Well, there are 4 types of American Expats there (I won't speak for people from other societies, adjust to taste):
1. Money Whores
2. Exiles - IRS, Divorce Alimony, Suit Judgements, etc.
3. Incompetents
4. Adventurers

Ain't so. I wasn't any off the above when I lived and worked there. Being an engineer-constructor building the most complex infrastructure, power and hydrocarbon projects in the world at the time seemed pretty patriotic. US companies, US expats, US benefits. Where do you think the great preponderance of imported oil comes from? Would you rather have had French or German or Russian companies designing, building and managing the Soddy works and now be dependent on their compentency and influence? How much are you prepared to pay for gasoline? Your comments are a little disingenous to the great, patriotic, loyal American teachers, engineers, managers and contractors working around the world not just Soddy. Yes the money is great but so is the work and technical challenge we face everyday. Plus while there we aren't a bunch of Stockholmers - we are showing the strength of a free, market oriented democracy that is America. What better way to demonstrate the values of the American principles we are all expounded everyday here on Rantburg.

Posted by Jack is Back! 2004-06-02 10:03:44 AM|| 2004-06-02 10:03:44 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 well if the sauds do fall you will see the US taking a 100 mile swath of arabia!

Posted by Dan 2004-06-02 11:40:28 AM|| 2004-06-02 11:40:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 I understand Jack is Back! So there are five categories, with the addition of the "Good Guys." But the Soddys don't see it your way. American ingenuity is just an "opportunity" to them--something they can use to their advantage and something they probably feel entitled to.

Posted by ex-lib 2004-06-02 11:44:58 AM|| 2004-06-02 11:44:58 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 #1. .com thanks for asking the Religous Policeman to comment on the Abdullarah, Nayef, and Turki situation. I just checked his posting for today and found this poem which explains the surrounded, but never captured stories from SA.
"Tho' many be surrounded,
and the surrounding be complete,
all shall escape
but the one with bad feet".
The Sage of Riyadh

Posted by GK 2004-06-02 12:59:11 PM|| 2004-06-02 12:59:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 . . . our country could be the next beneficiary of the United States' unique approach to "winning hearts and minds". However we'd only have ourselves to blame.

Sometimes through the thickest headdress, some insight filters in.

Posted by BigEd 2004-06-02 1:59:02 PM|| 2004-06-02 1:59:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 I wonder if anyone in the CIA has been predicting a Saudi fall for, say, two years.

If they had then the attack on Iraq takes on another dimension.

(note: I'm not a "Blooood for OOOiiillll!!!!" groupie)

If the fall of SA is predicted as likely then GB had little choice. Loss of ME oil and unlimited funds for the terrorists places an intolerable risk upon the Western economies and people. Folks outside of the US should be thanking it for doing what is necessary.

-a Canadian

Posted by Anonymous5099 2004-06-02 2:10:27 PM|| 2004-06-02 2:10:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 .com in reply to NMM
Excellent observation and question

Is it me or is really kinda chilly for June? ;>

Posted by Shipman 2004-06-02 2:34:22 PM|| 2004-06-02 2:34:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Jack - Heavy sigh. You're offended, I take it? Hmmm. This is touchy - cuz I really don't mean to offend, but I believe your response is at least a tad disingenuous and simplistic. On a personal level, the just you talking level, you went to work in Saudi Arabia solely because you are a patriot? You worked for whom? A US or multinational firm -- or a Saudi firm? It didn't appeal to your bank account or your sense of adventure? Those were my reasons in 2000, especially the latter as I was making 6 figures here in the US - it was the weirdness I sought. There was a touch of challenge - the offer was, officially, to "come and drag these guys into the 21st century in web technologies" - heh, that certainly appealed to my vanity regards my expertise.

Mainly, however, I have the adventure gene and it decides to wriggle, now and then, of its own accord. Ok, no offense intended, I will take your statement at face value, but you stand alone among all I have every conversed with who were there. C'est la vie, eh?

ZF - "GWB will *not* allow the House of Saud to fall to al Qaeda." -- I'll agree with one proviso: if time allows. If it happens fast and the Royals hop into their fleet of jets and bail for Switzerland, Dubya will have no one to save from AlQ... and it could happen very quickly, indeed, since they're cowards. Even though it appears that Nayef is somewhat allied with the Wahhabis, I have my doubts that he'd be the last one out, the guy who turns off the lights, when the zipperheads charge the Palace(s). Things are moving in slow motion now, but... BTW, I believe it will happen, and within the next 18-36 months. It would be very handy to complete the Iraq mission, tip the Mad Mullahs (minimal boots) and be flush with boots positioned and ready. Perhaps this topic has been discussed, already, by the US & Royals? Lol! I guess we know it has, complete with BS posturing from the Royals. My question would be, "Was there anyone present or privvy who can filter their BS so we got the truth of their intentions (fight / flight thresholds) and can "feel" the pulse of their current level of panic. It will happen. We live in interesting times! Lol!

GK - He rocks - and I know of no one who could possibly explain, in our terms, WTF is really afoot in the Royal Maze of Motivations. Sigh. I hope he chooses to respond in his blog.

Ship - At the time he posted it, he hadn't begun his screeching routine. It was a rational question - and it was not layered in the LLL tripe, so I thought I'd reply in kind. He's not stupid - it would be nice if he'd start acting not stupid and drop the Talking Points foolishness. Then I'd have no beef with him. Sigh.

Posted by .com 2004-06-02 3:44:35 PM|| 2004-06-02 3:44:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 You're a softie .com :)

Posted by Shipman 2004-06-02 6:10:25 PM|| 2004-06-02 6:10:25 PM|| Front Page Top

02:24 Tresho
01:30 .com
01:22 .com
01:12 RWV
00:51 CrazyFool
00:48 CrazyFool
00:36 CrazyFool
00:33 Long Hair Republican
00:30 Rafael
00:02 sc88
00:00 Barbara Skolaut
23:57 Barbara Skolaut
23:46 Mike Sylwester
23:46 cingold
23:41 Long Hair Republican
23:37 Barbara Skolaut
23:31 Barbara Skolaut
23:30 Long Hair Republican
23:30 Anonymous5101
23:27 Long Hair Republican
23:25 Barbara Skolaut
23:21 Phil B
23:18 Phil B
23:14 Robert Crawford