Article

2004-06-20

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Posted by Fred 2004-06-20 12:47:33 PM|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 What do I win? Was the one who thought it least likely. ;-)

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-06-20 12:59:39 PM|| 2004-06-20 12:59:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 That's two you've called lately...

Posted by Fred 2004-06-20 1:03:57 PM|| 2004-06-20 1:03:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 Both my successful guesses were pessimistic ones -- Osama not being confirmed dead, Sadr remaining alive and uncaptured.

But as usual my optimistic guess (Mahmoud Zahar being killed) failed me.

That says something, I think.

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-06-20 1:14:26 PM|| 2004-06-20 1:14:26 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Will we ever get confirmation that Bin Laden is dead?

Even if he is dead?

Posted by Phil Fraering 2004-06-20 1:15:55 PM|| [http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2004-06-20 1:15:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 "O'sama bin laden to rest" -Mark Steyn

Posted by an dalusian dog 2004-06-20 1:16:07 PM|| 2004-06-20 1:16:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Fred, when can we start laying money down on these bets? I am very serious about that. The other betting sites are a bit lame in the current events bets you can choose. Also, how could anyone have called the outcome correctly by forecasting anything but the low or high percent? Wouldn't it be better to just ask for yes or no bets, then figure out a probabilty from that?

Posted by Zpaz 2004-06-20 1:36:01 PM|| 2004-06-20 1:36:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 What's everybody else think about that idea? Switch to a "yes/no" and post the results as odds -- yes:no?

Posted by Fred 2004-06-20 6:28:51 PM|| 2004-06-20 6:28:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 It does seem to me to make a bit more sense. People who think it's 50/50 probably shouldn't be voting on it anyway. :-)

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-06-20 8:44:58 PM|| 2004-06-20 8:44:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Percentages yield more information. But it's only useful if more people would participate. So right now a yes/no probably makes more sense.

Posted by Rafael 2004-06-20 9:52:54 PM|| 2004-06-20 9:52:54 PM|| Front Page Top

23:11 OldSpook
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21:49 Mark Espinola
01:38 .com
01:23 Super Hose
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