Article

2004-06-24 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Paul Moloney 2004-06-24 9:03:07 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Perhaps I have missed something (no, a lot) due to the usual media non-coverage and CENTCOM's impenetrable cone of silence, but does anyone else wonder why there haven't been large, sustained offensives starting last week to disrupt/attenuate exactly this sort of thing? CENTCOM's been predicting this sort of upsurge for months and months. I recall coalition offensives in the past seemed to have quite a bit of success. Why the sound of crickets chirping from coalition forces (exception: Marines around Fallujah) when we long knew this was game-time?

Posted by Verlaine 2004-06-24 9:29:09 AM|| 2004-06-24 9:29:09 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 not sure about military ops in last week. I dont think Coalition forces have been idle, although they seem to have been focusing on training Iraqi forces.

points
1. todays Zarq offensive is largely in Mosul - most of dead and wounded there, multiple carbombings
2. Apparently Zarq used up several suiciders to accomplish this
3. Ongoing street fights in Mosul and Baquba - a chance to bleed the jihadis.
4. While media focus on IP being outgunned and needing American backup, key point is that IP IS fighting.
5. USMC apparently on offensive in Fallujah at last
6. Belmont, via Hammurabi claims to have nationalaties of foreign fighters killed in Fallujah air attack. Not clear on Hamm's source.
7. Allawi is front and center - telling the press who's behind which attacks, confirming governor in Ramadi is safe. This is the big change, and the one that frightens Zarq the most.
8. Note -whereas a month ago Sunni IGC members resignation threats stalled the Fallujah offensive, now Allawi is approving attacks in Fallujah. As June 30 approaches, the friendly Iraqis and Coalition are taking off the gloves - expect this to accelerate after June 30. Thats why Zarq is hitting with all hes got now - it use it or lose it time, no point in conserving force.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-06-24 11:30:00 AM|| 2004-06-24 11:30:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Apparently Zarq used up several suiciders to accomplish this

Any speculation as to what the cycle time is for recruiting, indoc and training of "martyrdom operators". Is the supply unlimited? Are these Iraqis or foreign nationals? Makes more sense to me that the slodeydope pipeline is being filled in Syria and Saudi along with some Palestinian consulting rather than being a primarily Iraqi operation. And why do we never hear any discussion of these topics?

Posted by Classical_Liberal 2004-06-24 12:11:48 PM|| 2004-06-24 12:11:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Is the supply unlimited?

The $64,000 question. A. Yup, there are millions of muslims who hate the west and love violent Jihad B. No, ROP or not, the attraction of AQ and of suicide is quite limited C. When we're too tough it creates more would be martyrs D. When we're too weak it creates more would be martyrs.

Answer - damned if I know. My sense is that whatever the long term prospects, the amount available at any one time is finite.
Are these Iraqis or foreign nationals?
The friendly Iraqis tend to say theyre all foreigners (not surprisingly) while the dovish media tends to focus on them being Iraqis - and its almost linear, the MORE dovish on the war, the more a given outlet focuses on Iraqis, rather than foreigners.
Seems that theres a sense the ex-baathists in Tikrit and the Tigris valley side of the triangle go in for IED's etc, not inclined to suicide. The foreigners are inclined to suicide. The wild cards are the native Iraqi wahabis, thickest on the ground in Anbar province, esp, Fallujah and Ramadi. Not clear if theyre suiciding.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-06-24 12:44:03 PM|| 2004-06-24 12:44:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Belmont, via Hammurabi claims to have nationalaties of foreign fighters killed in Fallujah air attack. Not clear on Hamm's source.

One of the commenters on Hamm's blog sez he found them posted on a jihadi website. They do like to give credit to their martyrs.

Posted by Steve 2004-06-24 1:02:20 PM|| 2004-06-24 1:02:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 a jihadi website is undermining the claim that it was all women, children, and baby ducks? I suppose they dont think anyone here reads Arabic or checks their sites, but it still sounds odd.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-06-24 1:17:28 PM|| 2004-06-24 1:17:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 To the jihadis it doesn't matter if we killed baby ducks, women, or actual jihadis -- it's all wrong to them. Furthermore, dead jihadis are martyrs, so they're still going to get praise in the Arab world.

When speaking to Western reporters, the dead are all innocents. When speaking to jihadis, they're all brave warriors.

Posted by Robert Crawford 2004-06-24 1:30:52 PM|| [http://www.kloognome.com] 2004-06-24 1:30:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 #4 Is the supply unlimited?

Nope, but notice sense before the war the bombings have pretty much dried up in Israel. I believe there is a limited number and they have mostly been assigned to Iraq leaving little available for attacks in Israel or anywhere else for that matter. This again adds fuel to how connected all these terrorists groups really are.

Posted by Patrick 2004-06-24 7:53:13 PM|| 2004-06-24 7:53:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Patrick, I believe Rummy called this "draining the swamp" awhile back. He was derided by the usual suspects, but events have since proven him to be right.

Posted by Scott R 2004-06-24 10:19:25 PM|| [http://five24.net] 2004-06-24 10:19:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 It doesn't matter...Zarqawi, Al Sadr, and the remaining free 'Deck Of Cards', are using the oldest trick in the book, "bait n' switch", diverting our focus so reinforcements and buildups can occur! They (the insurgents) don't want us to leave; only to stay put while they 'sting' us to death over the coming months. Sad, we have to wait till November 3rd for 'balls' in Washington to drop!

Posted by smn 2004-06-24 11:37:53 PM|| 2004-06-24 11:37:53 PM|| Front Page Top

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