Article

2004-08-14 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by tipper 2004-08-14 9:35:23 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 wow..... I'd have guessed at least two days, maybe three. Looks like Allawi's not into taking demands when he has the whip hand?

Posted by Frank G 2004-08-14 9:40:09 AM|| 2004-08-14 9:40:09 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Now that the talks have broken down, can we now resume breaking Tater down?

Posted by Ol_Dirty_American 2004-08-14 9:47:16 AM|| 2004-08-14 9:47:16 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Sounds like Sistani gave Allawi the green light or we got a guy with cajones in there. Wonder if Tater will take instructions from the Black Hats to the end. Life as a chip aint fun Tater.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-08-14 10:02:56 AM|| 2004-08-14 10:02:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 The "truce talks" sure came and went awfully fast ; Diplomats never give up that quickly - this whole thing smells like it was planned.

The military part of me thinks more like a 2 day operational pause in order to consolidate.

The Cavalry and Marines basically have cleared the cemetary and old city - they have the shrines surrounded. But they have had a fast op-tempo and hard fighting that cannot be sustained for a lot longer. Plus they have grabbed up a lot of territory there in Indian Country.

They need a couple days to resupply, reinforce and solidify the outer and inner perimeters, clear out the muj/madhi corpses, and completely sight in all pertient points of the Imam Ali shrine.

A couple days of careful recon and setups for UAVs doesnt hurt either.

They stopped fighting on the Holy Days (Fri-night thru Sat night), for a bit of a cultural boost. You dont want to bust into a Shrine on Friday when they have Mobleader Imams across the country speaking in Friday prayers.

The analyst part of me has twigged to something a bit different...

Want to know the a probable "behind the scenes" reason for the pause?

The real beneficiary of this woudl be the Iraqi "Special Forces" battalion. Think about it - Iraqis are the only ones who can get into that shrie without causing political earthquakes across the region. Political reality demands that Arab(Moslem, Shia) troops liberate that shrine.

They now have a secure area for operations.

No need to worry about patrolling (The US has the area clear),

no need to worry about posting security (The US forces have the area locked down and curfew declared)

there is lots of available support in place now with fast response: US UAVs, recon, ammunition, supply and medical are onsite

Right at hand are US commanders who can provide fire support and call in air support from Helis and fast movers and Puff.

Possibly even a few US SOCOM (Rangers, Delta, Seals) in critical spots for "snatch" teams to help them out.

But just as importantly, they now have had a couple of pre-positioning, planning and practice days for their assault on the Shrine, with no cameras on them - meaning they are there but nobody knows they are there, and they have had the one thing most special ops need: time to prepare and train.

In my opinion, this wasn't negotiation with a bandit, it was simply buying time to sling the rifle, and pull out the silenced pistol, and now they have quietly cocked the hammer.

Right weapon for the job. Iraqi "Commandos". And you will note that there are more Iraqi Police and National Guard being deployed on the outer perimeter and into the occupied areas of the city to hunt down Madhis and Muj.

One thing I hope we have learned form the "Media/Propaganda" war:

Hopefully they have cameras set up to record more footage of the abuse of the shrine by Sadr's boys - and the US must start pushing those images all over the place (TV, newspapers - spew them all over Sadr City and other Shia ghettos) to show just who the bad guys really are, BEFORE anything happens at the Shrine. Sunday and Monday papers there should be crammed full of imiages of the mortars and machine guns in the Shrine, desecrating it, and show IRANIANS in the forces there (that'll definitely piss off the locals). Parade the Iranians in handcuffs next to the weapons they were carrying, and emphasize they were coming to KILL IRAQIS.

Dunno why anyone at psyops and the pentagon hasnt done this yet - its a propaganda bonanza starting them in the face.

Posted by Oldspook 2004-08-14 10:42:45 AM|| 2004-08-14 10:42:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 wretchard at Belmont notes that Sadr made impossible demands that would emasculate Allawi if agreed to - he can't do that and stay PM -and the push by Sadr supporters to rescue Sadr from the seige (while they'll be stopped by our double cordon) which will quickly push this into a needed resolution. I totally agree that we need to be filming, documenting the defilement of the shrine and getting that out to the Iraqis

Posted by Frank G 2004-08-14 10:50:18 AM|| 2004-08-14 10:50:18 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Dunno why anyone at psyops and the pentagon hasnt done this yet - its a propaganda bonanza starting them in the face

Gotta get the Iraqis in place, announce the withdrawl of US troops from Europe and SE Asia and make other plans for taking down Iran first. ??

Posted by rkb 2004-08-14 11:01:55 AM|| 2004-08-14 11:01:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 re: #6

Nope - they have staff officers to handle all that - the operations officers in-theater shoudl be doing this psyops stuff. Need to ge tthese images of Sadr's boys with morats in the shrine and main temple area, and even show them running demolition wire, etc. The UAVs and long-range cameras can get a lot fo this stuff.

Posted by Oldspook 2004-08-14 11:48:10 AM|| 2004-08-14 11:48:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Sorry, wasn't clear.

I didn't mean tht the ops officers would do those tasks themselves ... I mean that the time for the psyops might not be right. Hard to tell from a distance away ....

Posted by rkb 2004-08-14 2:41:08 PM|| 2004-08-14 2:41:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 But why not just leave the city.
I mean, it does belong to them.
And poeple taking over it may seem a bit hostile to them, don't you think?
But then again, look at the poor Red Indians, no one would think that the U.S. belongs to them.

Posted by Gentle 2004-08-14 2:47:15 PM|| 2004-08-14 2:47:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 The time has come
A fact's a fact
It belongs to them
Let's give it back!

Posted by Peter Garrett 2004-08-14 3:02:16 PM|| 2004-08-14 3:02:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Thank you!

Posted by Gentle 2004-08-14 3:03:25 PM|| 2004-08-14 3:03:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 LOL - you have no concept who PG is, do you?

Posted by Frank G 2004-08-14 3:06:07 PM|| 2004-08-14 3:06:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 OldSpook, thanks for (once again!) a thoughtful, careful, fact-laden analysis.

Posted by Steve White 2004-08-14 3:08:47 PM|| 2004-08-14 3:08:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Nice one OldSpook. I used to pay Stratfor hoping to get that kind of analysis.

Posted by Classical_Liberal 2004-08-14 3:31:44 PM|| 2004-08-14 3:31:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Gentle, you idiot!
The US doesn't belong to the Injuns--They LOST in the wars they made against white men!
And we're not giving the land back to them now or ever!

Yes, Old Spook--thanks a zillion! Good stuff.

Posted by GreatestJeneration 2004-08-14 3:49:01 PM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com] 2004-08-14 3:49:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 So, to put Old Spook's excellent analysis in a nutshell, we decided TWO could play the HUDNA game!

Posted by Ptah 2004-08-14 3:57:36 PM|| [http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2004-08-14 3:57:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 But why not just leave the city.

Gentle, perhaps it has escaped your notice that Moqtada al-Sadr is a violent theocratic gangster who seeks only his own self-aggrandizement, even at the cost of innocent Iraqi life. Sadr is one of the principal obstacles to peace in the region and must be removed, by force if necessary. You continue to display the most naieve and ill-founded perspective regarding Islamism and its outward political goals. Until you show the least understanding of how Sadr, the Iranians (Wahhabism too) and violent Islamists imperil global security and peaceful progress, you will merely be one of the sheep they slaughter on their way to infamy.

Islamism will die, it is only a question of whether it will be via conventional weapons or nuclear bombs. People like you who continue to blindly deny the violent intentions of Islamism's political agenda are the ones that will make necessary the wholesale elimination of Islam, most likely through nuclear obliteration. Nowhere do you ever mention your own efforts at reforming this wayward religion that you praise so highly. Your lack of comprehension is precisely what drives the Islamist's hellbound juggernaut. It is such unquestioning loyalty and faith as yours that ensures the demise of this brutal and despotic political system disguised as a religion.

PS: Excellent analysis, Old Spook. Keep it coming!

Posted by Zenster 2004-08-14 4:21:17 PM|| 2004-08-14 4:21:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 careful, dcreeper may deign you as non-acceptive of the educated and forward-looking Miss (for her age, culture, and educational background - caveat)
:-)

Posted by Frank G 2004-08-14 4:27:06 PM|| 2004-08-14 4:27:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 careful folks! Frank may use intimidation and 'Youse not wulcom ear' talk if you stray too far from his accepted positions of opinion (regardless of how inoffensive you are or how politely you dissent from his golden seat) :-)

Posted by Dcreeper 2004-08-14 4:55:00 PM|| 2004-08-14 4:55:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 porcelain, baby...I leave golden to Saddam et al

Posted by Frank G 2004-08-14 4:56:04 PM|| 2004-08-14 4:56:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 but, please don't feel intimidated, dcreeper - we all fall or stand by what we say here, and all are welcome. I'm just a participant, snarky commenter, donor to the Fred fund, and right sometimes, wrong others (admittedly)

Posted by Frank G 2004-08-14 5:15:32 PM|| 2004-08-14 5:15:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Gentle I'm gonna teach ya the first rule of land ownership. The side with the biggest and largest number of guns on a property owns that land. Might may not always be right but it sure as hell is hard to contest it.

This has been true in virtually all of history even BEFORE guns. You can lay claim to a land that you are in physical possession of or able to defend (but you better be damn sure you are able to defend it later if its contested). Otherwise well its up for grabs. If that history lesson is too hard for you to grasp well theres nothing anyone can teach you.

Posted by Valentine 2004-08-14 6:00:28 PM|| 2004-08-14 6:00:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 Now, now, "gentle" may have a point: perhaps it is time we cleaned up some historical property disputes.

I vote we start with kicking all the mooselimbs back to Arabia, and give Iraq back over to the Christians, Jews, and Persians who lived there originally...

Posted by Carl in N.H. 2004-08-14 7:17:04 PM|| 2004-08-14 7:17:04 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 Just to disagree with OS just a little:
No need to worry about patrolling (The US has the area clear), no need to worry about posting security (The US forces have the area locked down and curfew declared)
Patrol always and a little more for fun when you feel safe, secure everything and then wire it down and paint it.

Posted by Shipman 2004-08-14 8:24:11 PM|| 2004-08-14 8:24:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 Patrol always and a little more for fun when you feel safe, secure everything and then wire it down and paint it.

This reminds me very little of the old military addage:

If it moves, salute it. If it doesn't, paint it.

Posted by Zenster 2004-08-14 9:04:20 PM|| 2004-08-14 9:04:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 there are one of 2 wasy to go about it now:

Once they have enough force in place and the planning done, then go in and get it done.

========

The other is wait a week, clean up the city outward, and emplace the Iraqi Police in authority everywhere except the shrine. Make a big issue out of "We are giving them a chance, we are helping Najaf to recover, we are pleading with them to peacably disarm and leave the Mosque".

Let the Sadarites sweat, run thru their supplies (while keeping any new ones from getting in) and suffer the heat without electricity and without water and without sewage.

And on top of that, be sure we have snipers (Marine snipers) set up all over the outside of thr grounds - and have them taking shots every hour of every day. Carry a weapon in the shrine area, suffer a one-shot kill.

After 4 days, go in on Wednesday, clear it Thursday, and put a "friendly" cleric in there to do the Prayers on Friday.

Posted by Oldspook 2004-08-14 9:13:20 PM|| 2004-08-14 9:13:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 There can not be any mention of a meaningful 'peace' with the likes of suicidal jihadists.

It's time to finish them off once and for all.

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-08-14 9:43:26 PM|| 2004-08-14 9:43:26 PM|| Front Page Top

#28 There can not be any mention of a meaningful 'peace' with the likes of suicidal jihadists.

I beg to differ, Mark. There's always, rest in 'peace.'

Posted by Zenster 2004-08-14 9:55:53 PM|| 2004-08-14 9:55:53 PM|| Front Page Top

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