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2004-08-18 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Steve 2004-08-18 11:00:22 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 kill the swarm when it leaves the ~~hive~~ shrine

Posted by Frank G 2004-08-18 11:05:53 AM|| 2004-08-18 11:05:53 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 This guy now has control over the Iraqi govt, oil price, the US military, the press. He may "pull back" now. And when we withdraw he will be back. This guy has won, and we have lost.

The only answer is his death and the death of his people or we will fight this fight for years.

It is Bush that has turned this fight into a "sensitive" fight.

Posted by Busybody 2004-08-18 11:11:00 AM|| 2004-08-18 11:11:00 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 we haven't lost and Tater hasn't won. It's really not a bad solution.

Boths sides seemed acutely aware of "beware the law of unintended consequences"

Both sides opted for a known "lesser" quantity. Personally, I think it was a good decision overall to accept the acceptable and move on.

Posted by B 2004-08-18 12:17:11 PM|| 2004-08-18 12:17:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 we haven't lost and Tater hasn't won. It's really not a bad solution.

You're looking at it through your own lens. Try looking at it from an Arab/Muslim point of view. And one thing to keep in mind - logic does not apply.

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-08-18 12:23:47 PM|| 2004-08-18 12:23:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 BAR: You're looking at it through your own lens. Try looking at it from an Arab/Muslim point of view. And one thing to keep in mind - logic does not apply.

Actually, decapitation isn't strictly necessary to bring a Muslim movement down. It's not like Palestinians are volunteering in droves to blow themselves up even though Arafat is still alive. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority is collapsing around him. Mullah Omar and bin Laden are still floating around somewhere, and yet the foreign jihadis in Iraq and Afghanistan number in the thousands at most - a fraction of the number that existed in Afghanistan alone during the time of the Taliban. Like I said, Muslims are deterred by heavy casualties - the hordes of fanatical Muslim jihadists frequently conjured up are a figment of the Arab imagination - most would rather live than die fighting.

Why are we seeing significant Baathist resistance at Fallujah and various other towns? Because these formations weren't rolled up during the fighting. Imagine if we had bypassed most of the Japanese and German combat formations through flanking maneuvers during WWII, instead of destroying them in place. I bet the peace would have seen many more postwar American casualties.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 12:44:34 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 12:44:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 the devils in the details, IMHO. If the Mahdi army isnt disarmed, I think Sadr will spin this as a win - if its not a loss for a us, its damned close to it. And his record on follow through on promises is NOT good, which is why this second confrontation happened. ANY promise not to arrest him must be made contingent on full, iron clad compliance with disarmament - if there is ANY violation, then the govt goes to arrest him, and this time he doesnt have the shrine for protection.

But I dont see him accepting such terms. My bet, is give it a couple of days before the negotiations on the details break down, and then Allawis troops go in. Hope they keep training meanwhile. Note, also, that waiting a couple of days means the Baghdad conference is over. Any assembly resulting from the conference should be more realistic than the conference members themselves.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-08-18 1:26:46 PM|| 2004-08-18 1:26:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Keep Saturday open on your calendar.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-08-18 1:45:55 PM|| 2004-08-18 1:45:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 LH: If the Mahdi army isnt disarmed, I think Sadr will spin this as a win - if its not a loss for a us, its damned close to it.

Muslim lies don't change the facts on the ground. The reality is that Mullah Omar and bin Laden can spin their ability to elude capture as a victory for them. But jihadis haven't exactly flocked to them by the hundreds of thousands, let alone millions. And that is because no amount of lying can disguise their catastrophic defeat. Sadr's followers aren't exactly increasing - the last time around, thousands of Sadrites were killed before he capitulated. This time around, he's throwing in the towel after a few hundred KIA. The reality is this - instead of dramatically increasing after Sadr's first uprising, US casualties decreased. That's not a sign that Sadr's recruiting is going great guns - the more combatants he has, the more casualties we take.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 1:59:23 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 1:59:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Mrs. D "Saturday open on your calendar."

In another post someone said that tomarrow is Thursday and that will be to close to Friday/Saturday so the raid will not happen. I think your right Mrs. D watch for a Sunday/Monday raid. Probably Monday so it can be in for the entire Western World new cycle.

Posted by TomAnon 2004-08-18 2:44:12 PM|| 2004-08-18 2:44:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 If his clowns leave the shrine, and if we are able to secure it against any further occupation, then this is a good thing. Outside the shrine we can take him at will.

Also, Sadr is of more value to us alive than dead. Sadr the man is a pathetic, insignificant fool. Sadr the idea is very powerful to the weakminded at the NYT and Al Jazeera. Our interests would be poorly served by killing him. It would elevate Sadr the idea by untethering it from the reality of the man.

Posted by Iblis 2004-08-18 3:09:51 PM|| 2004-08-18 3:09:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 zf - but lies matter, not just attrition. For a variety of reasons, Allawi doesnt have as much time as Kharzai. He needs to establish his control and fairly soon. If Sadr gives up Najaf, having lost circa 500 thugs thus far, and he gets away to Sadr city with his remaining 1000 from the shrine, plus the hundreds who were never in Najaf, hes in position to keep making trouble in Sadr City and in Basra, even if his recruitment declines. And hes immune to arrest. So we've got a guy who has at least enough force to dominate Sadr City, with a get out of jail free card. Thats a problem, and it DOESNT inspire confidence in Allawi, whos only real claim to legitimacy is the beleif on the part of Iraqis that he is strong and will solve the security problems.

Compared to taking down the 1000 thugs, and seeing Sadr die or be arrested, or at worst run for it WITHOUT a get out of jail free card (this latter is more like what happened to Mullah Omar) this is a loss.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-08-18 3:19:37 PM|| 2004-08-18 3:19:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Iblis: Our interests would be poorly served by killing him. It would elevate Sadr the idea by untethering it from the reality of the man.

I agree. It's a lot like what's happening with Arafat - everything he touches turns to crap. Destroying Sadr's followers around him is going to be just as effective. He can't do anything to protect them, but at the same time, for his followers, being around him is the kiss of death. I like the concept.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 3:21:19 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 3:21:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 I assume if Sadr wont accept anything less than immunity for his lieutenants as well. You really think Allawi and the coalition can keep up a sustained campaign of assasination (i mean that word in the nice way) like Sharon can? Allawi does not have the legitimacy, the base, of Sharon. And the Americans are faraway and free to run, as Israel is not. A long,slow, Sharon style strategy wont work in Iraq.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-08-18 3:24:39 PM|| 2004-08-18 3:24:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 LH: If Sadr gives up Najaf, having lost circa 500 thugs thus far, and he gets away to Sadr city with his remaining 1000 from the shrine, plus the hundreds who were never in Najaf, hes in position to keep making trouble in Sadr City and in Basra, even if his recruitment declines.

He has had these folks around for a while, but 2,000 guys are a drop in the bucket. Our people can kill them all in a matter of weeks. The key metric is this - our casualty numbers aren't going up, not because our guys are supermen, but because they're having problems recruiting. Raw numbers do tell, and Sadr isn't exactly attracting new jihadis like bees to honey, which means that his lies are failing. Jihadis are no different from other revolutionary groups - success begets success, as new recruits are converted to the cause. The problem for Sadr is that potential Muslim recruits don't believe his declarations of victory and are staying away in droves.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 3:28:29 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 3:28:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 our guys cant kill them (at least not in the overt way weve been doing) if Sadr has an agreement that says we cant.

Im not sure about recruits - whats your source on that?

In any case IF this looks like a Sadr win, it would increase his recruits. So spin matters.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-08-18 3:33:22 PM|| 2004-08-18 3:33:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 LH: You really think Allawi and the coalition can keep up a sustained campaign of assasination (i mean that word in the nice way) like Sharon can?

Sadr doesn't have his own tax base and direct aid from the EU, unlike Arafat. Sadr has to compete with oil-funded largesse from the Iraqi government. Sadr is fighting against other Muslims, which isn't viewed with the same equanimity as fighting infidel Jews. Bottom line, Sadr is fighting the combined economic and military resources of the Iraqi state and Uncle Sam. There is no way he can win.

Every day he brings disaster upon his followers is a day that he becomes more despised. He claims to be a martyr, but his followers are the ones who drop like flies around him. Like I said, the bottom line is how many new recruits he manages to bring on. These days, it looks like he's really scraping bottom.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 3:34:55 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 3:34:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 LH: Im not sure about recruits - whats your source on that?

Pure interpolation. Sadr is folding after the loss of a few hundred men, compared to the loss of a few thousand men the first time around. I doubt it's out of the milk of human kindness. Another indicator is the fact that US casualties aren't going up - we're still looking at 2 or 3 KIA a day. If he had more guys, we'd be losing more casualties. The point is that you've got to ignore all the qualitative BS spun by the liberal media to make the jihadis look stronger and more motivated than they really are. The numbers don't lie.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 3:39:52 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 3:39:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 It's not about winning the hearts and minds of his followers, it's about winning the hearts and minds of OUR people. The VCs didn't win by holding onto recruits, they did by making our people hate our soldiers.

Goddammit.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,129275,00.html <- sounds rather like flip-flopping by the government.

Posted by Edward Yee 2004-08-18 3:40:55 PM|| [http://edwardyee.fanworks.net] 2004-08-18 3:40:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 look ZF, if your point is that Sadr is weaker now than he was in April, I fully agree. But he was also weaker two days ago than he was in April. The question remains whether his cutting a deal is a win for us, relative to what would have happened had the Baghdad convention not intervened.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-08-18 3:46:45 PM|| 2004-08-18 3:46:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 LH: In any case IF this looks like a Sadr win, it would increase his recruits. So spin matters.

Like I said, spin doesn't matter - Arabs are a little more sophisticated than you might think. They'll say something for public consumption and do something that completely contradicts what they just said.* If they really believed Osama, the Taliban, Zarqawi and Sadr, why aren't they turning up in the hundreds of thousands for the jihad against the infidel? The reality is that Arabs claim that the US is lying, but show by their actions that they believe the US is telling the truth. (It's kind of like the dichotomy, where they praise 9/11 as a warning from Muslims about American foreign policy, but then also say that Jews were behind it).

* There's something about an honor culture that prizes uttering brave words, without actually doing anything that might involve risking their lives for a lost cause.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 3:47:28 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 3:47:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 LH: The question remains whether his cutting a deal is a win for us, relative to what would have happened had the Baghdad convention not intervened.

The convention is playing the Kerry card. They want to have it both ways - the Sadr threat decreased, and their personal popularity enhanced at Allawi's expense. Allawi is outflanking them by bending over backwards to let them have their parley. This is the kind of thing Allawi has to do if he's going to stand for elections in January. The media are playing the continuing conflict in Iraq as some kind of disaster. But the reality is that this is probably the most successful counter-guerrilla campaign (against a well-resourced enemy) of all time.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 3:52:51 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 3:52:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 There are also a number of other 'minor conditions' which he has set. I wonder what they are?

And will he be permitted to return to Najaf? Will we have to do this shit all over again in 3-4 months when he is feeling his oats again?

I dont think Sadr needs new 'recruits' when he can get Iranian ~~regular army~~ pilgrims to fill his ranks.

Posted by CrazyFool 2004-08-18 3:59:57 PM|| 2004-08-18 3:59:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 Debka proffers a straw for anyone still hoping that Sadr might be taken out :

DEBKAfileâs military sources reveal: US-Iraqi forces have transferred to Najef Kurdish Special Forces 36th commando battalion, of mostly Shiite fighters, to spearhead Iraqi military drive into Imam Ali Mosque - possibly Wednesday night.

Sadr and his militia are holed up in shrine. Iraqi prime minister and Iraqi and US commanders believe Sadrâs revolt can be brought to end in coming hours.

Sadr has not verified in person letter his aides sent to national council in Baghdad offering to lay down arms if troops pull away from shrine

Posted by Lux 2004-08-18 4:01:43 PM|| 2004-08-18 4:01:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 Will we have to do this shit all over again in 3-4 months when he is feeling his oats again?

Probably. But the IP and military forces will have had more time to train, etc. Allawi will be more secure in his position. They will be ready for elections. Allawi can probably finish him off at a much lower P/R cost and political risk than doing so today.

I dont think Sadr needs new 'recruits' when he can get Iranian regular army pilgrims to fill his ranks.

Right now there can't have been that many. If there were, why didn't we kill them on the ride into Najaf? And if the Black Turbans want to send in in 3-4 months, well W won't have to worry about an election then.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-08-18 4:08:42 PM|| 2004-08-18 4:08:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 Iraqi Kommando always = Kurds.

The reality is that Arabs claim that the US is lying, but show by their actions that they believe the US is telling the truth. (It's kind of like the dichotomy, where they praise 9/11 as a warning from Muslims about American foreign policy, but then also say that Jews were behind it).

I'm stealing that, even tho it hurts my head.

Posted by Shipman 2004-08-18 4:10:13 PM|| 2004-08-18 4:10:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 CF: Will we have to do this shit all over again in 3-4 months when he is feeling his oats again?

The first time around, Sadr caved after losing a few thousand men. This time around, he's backing off after losing a few hundred. I expect that the next time around, he's going to back off after losing a few dozen men. The guy's tapped out - the Mahdi (Messiah) is supposed to be able to summon Allah himself to help his avenging armies. The only protection Sadr has summoned up is the sanctuary of a holy site. I don't think this is the kind of protection mentioned in the Koran, where the angels themselves are supposed to help the Mahdi win one for Allah and the Muslim world over the infidels.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 4:15:51 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 4:15:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 I'm not nuanced enough to understand how this isn't simply lifting the siege on Najaf, aka a victory for Sadr and noone else.

What exactly is *he* being forced to do? Submit to arrest? Demilitarize his troops? Issue a fatwa against terrorism and stop the war rhetoric? Accept a future secular government as legitimate? Accept the *current* government's laws as applying in the territory he controls? Remove *all* his people from Najaf?

No, it just seems he will be allowed to leave the Shrine and in return he will indeed leave it.

Which essentially means you agreed to lift the siege, and he agreed to take advantage of it.

And the people who say that him being an alive enemy is better than being a dead martyr are *so* full of crap. He doesn't need anyone's respect as long as he has their fear. "Healing Iraq" http://healingiraq.blogspot.com/ said recently:

"Allawi's 'emergency laws' are a joke. They might look good on paper, but who is to enforce them? Allwai says it's not time yet to implement them. Not when IP and ING's desert and swear allegiance to Al-Mahdi in Ammara and Basrah. Not when Al-Mahdi have taken over governmental offices and IP stations in Nasiriya and Diwaniya. Not when they have checkpoints and patrols using IP vehicles in Sadr city. Not when they
declare their own emergency laws and a curfew in Baghdad. Not when they are lobbing mortars daily at Iraqi ministries and residential areas. Not when they can hold anyone hostage and force Iraqi officials to resign. Not when they can control the flow of oil through pipelines from the south. Not when Muqtada is al-sayyed al-qa'id. And certainly not when Allawi is just the local mayor of the Green Zone."

So what of the above things is Sadr and his troops gonna *stop* doing in return for this amnesty that was seemingly offered?

Posted by Aris Katsaris 2004-08-18 4:49:29 PM|| 2004-08-18 4:49:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#28 AK - if i understand ZF correctly, simply leaving the shrine is defeat. For Sadr to have won he would have had to force the US and Allawi to back off and leave him IN Najaf, as the Baathists/wahabis got in Fallujah. He clearly failed at that, and to some that continues his loss of momentum, and hes now in an irreversible downward cycle.

Of course we dont know what deal will actually be reached. He is SAID by SOME to have agreed to the convention terms - which DID involve disarming is militia, in its entirety I presume. No details about how this is to be accomplished or verified. Again, Im not sure those details will be worked out - I think theres a very high chance it will all fall apart and Iraqi govt forces will enter the shrine, if not Saturday than early next week.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-08-18 4:57:05 PM|| 2004-08-18 4:57:05 PM|| Front Page Top

#29 AK: Not when IP and ING's desert and swear allegiance to Al-Mahdi in Ammara and Basrah. Not when Al-Mahdi have taken over governmental offices and IP stations in Nasiriya and Diwaniya. Not when they have checkpoints and patrols using IP vehicles in Sadr city. Not when they declare their own emergency laws and a curfew in Baghdad. Not when they are lobbing mortars daily at Iraqi ministries and residential areas. Not when they can hold anyone hostage and force Iraqi officials to resign.

Are some Iraqi Police and National Guard units infiltrated by Sadr? Probably. Are they a significant number of the total force? If that were the case, you'd expect to see a lot more US casualties, as well as casualties among the goods convoys going through Iraq. Why hasn't the number of casualties suffered by Blackwater and other security contractors skyrocketed? (Note that convoy hijackings offer rich pickings for looters). Bottom line is that Zeyad is saying a lot of things for which he has no statistical evidence. Show me the numbers. And he can't - because he concluded a long time ago that the occupation of Iraq has been a major disaster, without any context in which to judge it. All of his comments since he reached this conclusion have served to reinforce his prejudices rather than analyzed the situation in Iraq.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-08-18 5:03:57 PM|| [http://www.polipundit.com] 2004-08-18 5:03:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#30 (I'm not at my regular computer. Mea culpa).

Guys, I am afraid all this negotiation 'stuff' is making Sadr stronger, especially when they negotiate with him as if he's legitimate AFTER he's done stuff like this:

http://rantburg.com/poparticle.asp?HC=&D=8/18/2004&ID=40906

The bread-and-butter of insurgent movements like Sadr's is killing the families of his enemy's soldiers and police; if he gets amnesty after committing cold-blooded murders such as those, he'll have the ability to murder people as part of his power base. Which means Iraq will have begun the long slide down to dictatorship and plastics-grinders... maybe Sadr's, maybe someone else's... but the "principle" will have been established.

UGH.

Posted by Phil Fraering 2004-08-18 5:20:24 PM|| [http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2004-08-18 5:20:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#31 Agree PF, but there is no guarantee that regardless of terms, that bright eyed tater will live.... he's got geniune tribal affliated, religously condoned, over wrought, carpet kissing enemies.

Posted by Shipman 2004-08-18 5:32:10 PM|| 2004-08-18 5:32:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#32 Aren't you supposed to kill your enemies in War so they don't have the chance to attack you again? Just checking...

Posted by Ol_Dirty_American 2004-08-18 6:25:41 PM|| 2004-08-18 6:25:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#33 Claudia Rosett mentioned that this situation is exactly what the neutron bomb was needed for.

Setting that aside, what about a pepper spray, tear gas, or even the previously mentioned, high decibel "We Built This City" as means for making them WANT to get out? (I still think Starship *would* be a human rights violation, but I won't complain about it.)

Posted by eLarson 2004-08-18 7:18:54 PM|| [http://larsonian.blogspot.com] 2004-08-18 7:18:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#34 I find Sadr's actions to be consistent with a game of Red Light/ Green Light possibly being controlled from Iran - one of Sadr's uncles sits on the Revolutionary Council. Iran may have called "red light" because he was running low on supplies and cannon fodder.
The most important element with respect to continuing the game is the mosque. I suspect that very few Mahdi would still be walking about if Sadr's forces were unable to use the mosque as a sanctuary. The game ends when the mosque is removed from play or Sadr loses corporal existence.
I wouldn't worry too much about Sadr's ghost haunting Iraqi politics. His dead dad is a much more important figure. I'm sure that the Iranians will make an effort to reorganize the Mahdi behind a substitute for Sadr, but substitutes that speak with an Iraqi accent but are willing to dance for Tehran will be progressively hard to come by. For example, after Yassin died, how much did Rumplestiltskin get accomplished before he joined his spiritual leader in the express line into Hades?

Posted by Super Hose 2004-08-18 10:46:22 PM|| 2004-08-18 10:46:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#35 Sadr didn't win - he is leaving, and his troops will ahve to go thru the cordon of US troops. The Iraqi National Guard will occupy the Shrine. And the IP will run Najaf.

If he refuses or goes back on his word - 1) he looks like a liar, and 2) the Iraqi SF (Kurds) will kill him and the Madhi army, in detail.

Sadr loses weapons, and troops, either way.

Sistani is the one coming out smelling like a rose.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-08-18 11:00:19 PM|| 2004-08-18 11:00:19 PM|| Front Page Top

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