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2004-10-28 Home Front: Politix

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Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-10-28 6:09:18 AM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Kerry has pulled staff and ads from Colorado, effectively conceding it to Bush.

Of the rest, the reliable polls show Bush ahead in all but PA and NH.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-10-28 7:58:07 AM|| 2004-10-28 7:58:07 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 I hope Bush gets much more than 270 votes. I just can't handle months of "voter fraud" whinings of the Dems. I also believe he'll get the popular vote.

Posted by True German Ally 2004-10-28 8:04:51 AM|| 2004-10-28 8:04:51 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Hey! You forgot NJ!, its tied 46% to 46% as of yesterday. There are 15 electoral votes here and to most of the people I speak to on a daily basis this is solely a vote on the WoT. An awful lot people around here knew someone or knows somebody who knew someone that was murdered on 9/11, and most saw the smoke that day.

Posted by JerseyMike 2004-10-28 8:59:37 AM|| 2004-10-28 8:59:37 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Zogby has Michigan tied now.. is that credible?

Posted by True German Ally 2004-10-28 9:09:20 AM|| 2004-10-28 9:09:20 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Credible. OS is correct as usual as is Jersey Mike. Bush has also been putting a LOT of time in PA. He must Know something I don't because every indication is he will lose there.

There is also going to be voter fraud whining, almost no matter what. I have never seen so much doubt from every side about the integrity of the balloting process. It has almost gotten to the point I would accept national ID cards if they had to be produced to vote.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-10-28 9:53:30 AM|| 2004-10-28 9:53:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 The National ID card would work...but ANY form of ID to vote would be better than this BS where some states don't require anything. I'd like to say I don't understand that, but then I grew up in Chicago!

Posted by RN 2004-10-28 9:59:45 AM|| 2004-10-28 9:59:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 1) America is the oldest and greatest democracy in the world.
2) Its voting system leaves room for improvements
3) Reasons for 2) are found in 1)

Posted by True German Ally 2004-10-28 10:03:21 AM|| 2004-10-28 10:03:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Kerry had to buy ads in HAWAII... not a lot of EV, but I previously hadn't believed a state could be any bluer. Buying ads in a supposedly safe state with a week to go before the election... things can't be looking good for the Kerry Kamp when this happens.

Posted by eLarson 2004-10-28 10:06:03 AM|| 2004-10-28 10:06:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 There was voter fraud in NM in 2000 and enough evidence to warrant a grand jury, but the Democratic Attorney General refused to initiate an official investigation. While the Dem's whined about Florida, they buried their dirty work in New Mexico.

Posted by Don 2004-10-28 10:06:57 AM|| 2004-10-28 10:06:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Folks, the polls don't tell the full story. This election will not be close.

There are still several million swing voters who, regardless of how the pollsters estimate their numbers or preferences, will not really make up their minds before Monday. These voters will go with their gut, and will vote on which candidate scares them least. In time of war, this is always an advantage for the incumbent. And in this particular war, these last-minute voters will almost certainly tilt heavily toward Bush.

Posted by lex 2004-10-28 10:22:41 AM|| 2004-10-28 10:22:41 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Another reason the polls are BS is that there are at least a million "Closet Bush" supporters among registered Democrats. Certainly many if not most Lieberman Dems will swing toward Bush, especially strongly pro-Israel jewish Dems in crucial swing states like FL (Miami) and PA (Philly, potentially also Pittsburgh). Could have an impact in Cleveland and Detroit suburbs as well.

But this crossover behavior is poorly captured by the polls. In fact, some pollsters actually reverse its effect. When the NYT/CBS pollsters do a poll, they adjust the results to make them conform more closely to overall party registration percentages. This of course assumes that any split-ticket voting by one party's registered voters is exactly offset by the other party's. However, we know that that will not happen this year because:

1) for the last 18 months at least, many more Dems have (very quietly) crossed over to vote for Republicans like Schwarzenegger (got 60% of the Dem vote in liberal Calif!) and Jeb Bush in Florida, and

2) support for Bush is far higher among Repubs (ca 90%) than is support for Kerry among Dems (ca 70%).

So here's why Bush will win by 4-6 points:
If you assume that Dem and Repub registration is now roughly equal; that Kerry and Bush will split the independents 50-50; and that maybe half of the 10% of Repubs who dislike Bush will actually swing to Kerry and that maybe one-third of the 30% of Dems who dislike Kerry will swing to Bush; then in a two-man race you come up with a 5-point advantage to Bush. Which is amplified slightly by Nader.

So my prediction is Bush by 4-5.5 points in the popular vote and by a very large margin in the electoral college.

Posted by lex 2004-10-28 10:36:40 AM|| 2004-10-28 10:36:40 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 The Democrats big problem in Minnesota seems to come down to one thing: snowmobiles

Posted by Steve 2004-10-28 11:06:49 AM|| 2004-10-28 11:06:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 Michigan could definitely be in play, even despite the overwhelming Dem advantage conferred by the AFL-CIO machine, because of the pro-Israel Jewish swing vote in the Oakland county suburbs of Detroit. Note that even though Arab-Americans in Michigan outnumber jewish americans by 2:1, many of those arabs are kurds and Iraqi Chaldeans who are more likely than not to favor the war and Bush.

The jewish swing vote, which is 5-6% of the overall vote, can tip this election. If, as in 1972, there's a 15% shift away from Dems by Israel-focused jewish voters (ie 65/35 Kerry/Bush instead of the usual 80/20 Dem-Repub jewish vote split), then that gives Bush an extra 0.82% and Kerry's vote is reduced by an equal amount, or a 1.62% differential. And the effect of this shift would be magnified in Florida and Pennsylvania.

Now, there are at least twice as many non-jewish as jewish Dems who also will vote for Bush on national security grounds, so it's easy to see a nationwide swing of about 5% from registered Dems to Bush on national security issues alone.

Any way you cut this election, it will not be close. Had the Dems nominated a true national security candidate (as opposed to a guy who plays one, on TV), this election would have been theirs to lose. But a man who promises to give nuclear fuel to the mullahs, who would have unilaterally scrapped our (and now Israel's) bunker-buster deterrent against a nuclear Iran, who grovels before Kofi and Co., is not a man that national security Dems can take seriously.

This one ain't gonna be close, folks.

Posted by lex 2004-10-28 11:07:53 AM|| 2004-10-28 11:07:53 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 OT, but what direction will RB take if Kerry does win?

Posted by Steve from Relto 2004-10-28 12:16:34 PM|| 2004-10-28 12:16:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 a harshly critical one

Posted by Frank G 2004-10-28 12:18:38 PM|| 2004-10-28 12:18:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Is that a change?

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-10-28 12:24:59 PM|| 2004-10-28 12:24:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 Simple Steve. Since Kerry & Co. have established perfection as the standard to judge a sitting President, they will be extended the same bar to meet. Copious parallels will be drawn from the Dem's propaganda methods this season to connect the 3 degree of separation between individuals and events and Kerry. They have basically poisoned their environment they will have to live within for four years.

Posted by Don 2004-10-28 12:26:39 PM|| 2004-10-28 12:26:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Trust me, a Kerry victory won't happen. I split my ticket this Tuesday and I guarantee you, a few million other Democrats will do so as well. There will not be anywhere near the same number of Republicans who swing for Kerry. If the independent vote is split 50/50, then it's game set match for Bush.

Posted by lex 2004-10-28 12:45:19 PM|| 2004-10-28 12:45:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 What MSM kool aid are you people drinking, anyway?

Posted by lex 2004-10-28 12:46:17 PM|| 2004-10-28 12:46:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 Lex:
Are you from (or still in) Michigan? Just curious; I grew up in Dearborn Heights and Livonia.

Anyway, from what I've seen, Oakland county is going to be the key to Michigan. Large jewish population, lots of upper-middle class families (Soccer Mom -> Security Mom).

Posted by jackal 2004-10-28 12:53:19 PM|| [http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2004-10-28 12:53:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 Yes, Birmingham. If I could get away I would fly back there this weekend and knock on a thousand doors in Oak Park and Southfield for Bush.

You are correct that Security Moms ie white married women are the key to this race. They would normally lean Democratic but are now leaning 53 to 42 for Bush, acc to Republican pollster Ed Goeoa (?sp).

Posted by lex 2004-10-28 1:04:02 PM|| 2004-10-28 1:04:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Most polls listed in RealClear Politics have Bush ahead today--except for a few of the liberal left newspapers such as LA Times.

A billboard on top of RealClear Politics said that 8 out of 19 of the 911 hijackers were registered to vote in the U.S. Hey there is something seriously in need of correction in our registration process if that is true.

Posted by John Q. Citizen 2004-10-28 1:06:37 PM|| 2004-10-28 1:06:37 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 The LA TImes published their own poll's results the day before the Schwarzenegger election that showed Arnold and what's-his-name in a dead heat. The next day, Arnold won by 17 points, getting some 60% of the Democratic vote in the most liberal state in the Union.

Do not believe the polls. They are vastly understating the number of Closet Bush supporters, the educated liberals who dare not tell their colleagues, neighbors, friends, even family that they are indeed going to vote for Bush.

Posted by lex 2004-10-28 1:16:07 PM|| 2004-10-28 1:16:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 Just get out and vote. Don't worry what color your state is. Just go do it. At a minimum you would be helping prevent a "lose the popular vote/win the e.c. vote" scenario. At the max, you'll contribute to a 40+ state Bush win.

Posted by eLarson 2004-10-28 2:48:10 PM|| 2004-10-28 2:48:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 Lex/Jackal - my home of residence is still in Redford where the wife & I both voted absentee for Bush and then libertarian & republican for everyone else. I wish I was able to get up there over the weekend to help you dudes out but they got me busy here in Lejeune right now. As a military guy I can't endorse a particular party while in uniform but I've had some success w/undecided voters while in civilian attire.

Posted by Jarhead 2004-10-28 3:03:59 PM|| 2004-10-28 3:03:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 I'm not in Michigan anymore. I called the Oakland County Bush-Cheney HQ to offer to fly up and help but only on condition that they furnish me a list of fellow Lieberman Dems whom I'm sure I could persuade to vote Bush on a split ticket. The kid runnning that effort doesn't have such a list but said he'd look for one and call me back. No word yet. This is crazy. Lieberman won s.t. like 27% of Oakland County Democrats in the Dem primary; Bush could poach at least on-third of these, probably half or more.

btw They do have a "Jews for George" coordinator, but there's one slight problem with that: I'm not jewish....

Posted by lex 2004-10-28 3:15:16 PM|| 2004-10-28 3:15:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 Jarhead: What you're doing is more important. We got a million campaign workers. We have far fewer Marines.

Lex: I left Mich 20 years ago. I don't know very many people back there any more.

As for your qualifications, well, you could convert... [wag]

Posted by jackal 2004-10-28 3:20:38 PM|| [http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2004-10-28 3:20:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#28 thanx jackal, but everytime I see MI in the kerry column makes me want to dry-heave. I sit here in NC and think how stupid can people in my home state be? Then I remember all the union guys like my dad and their handlers pushing the party line, just dissapointing is all that they don't get the straight scoop from the guys that know what's really going on overseas.

Posted by Jarhead 2004-10-28 3:40:08 PM|| 2004-10-28 3:40:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#29

Some people will very upset on Nov 3rd.

Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-10-28 9:38:48 PM|| 2004-10-28 9:38:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#30 Jarhead, When you look at the folks in MI remember they're the ones who didn't leave. What's that tell you?

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-10-28 9:44:43 PM|| 2004-10-28 9:44:43 PM|| Front Page Top