Article

2004-10-30 Home Front: Politix

Kerry Has One-Point Lead Over Bush - Reuters Poll

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2004-10-30 12:32:24 PM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Rooter poll is worthless. Methodology for "normalizing" results to 2000 levels make them suspect to begin with, but if you look at the sample, they oversmaple Dems and undercount Republicans and independants.

As evidence: Black vote is down, and Bush drawing MORE of it, a core Dem constituentcy, yet Kerry is ahead in their poll - meaning somehow the Republicans numbers must be going to Kerry to make up for the loss of black votes. Given the Bush margin in Republicans now is bigger than in 2000 ("will vote for" is well over 90%), and the Kerry margine is low (only half are voting FOR kerry as opposed to AGAINST Bush, and Dem "will vote for" for Kerry is only around 80%) this makes it HIGHLY improbablye that Kerry is leading, given the internals of the poll.

So bottom line: Reuters is playing the top-line numbers to try to create bandwagon voters for Kerry.

Hey Reuters, there are people out in the Blogosphere that can do the math too - so stopy lying and tryign to spin things.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-10-30 1:31:55 PM|| 2004-10-30 1:31:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Isn't Zogby's brother a biggy in some Arab think tank associated with the Dems. Polling ultra inconsistent, and averages D +3% - only ARG is worse...

Mason-Dixon or Gallup are much more in the real world!

Posted by BigEd 2004-10-30 11:12:20 PM|| 2004-10-30 11:12:20 PM|| Front Page Top

00:06 Thavilet Spotle9553
01:04 Slinetle Snolurong4312
02:10 Silk
08:06 Joe
05:20 Glereger Cligum6229
20:57 Faisal
22:42 Boris Pribich
22:42 Boris Pribich
23:04 Boris Pribich
23:04 Boris Pribich
06:32 Ptah
01:13 lex
01:12 phil_b
01:09 lex
01:54 trailing wife
00:38 lex
00:36 lex
00:18 CrazyFool
00:14 CrazyFool
00:01 AzCat
00:00 lex
23:40 Mark Espinola
23:38 Mark Espinola
23:38 Phil Fraering