Article

2004-12-14 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by ed 2004-12-14 9:10:10 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 China will be able to make a serious move on Taiwan before 2010.

More like China will be able to present lots of targets to submarines and antiship missles of various nations. Let me know how their EW, ECW, ECCW are coming and I'll be a bit more perturbed. (And the capture of the P-3 did perturb me.)

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-12-14 9:43:33 AM|| 2004-12-14 9:43:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 No shit Mrs D. The days of the massive amphibious assault passed, oh about 50 years ago. The only thing this fleet will accomplish will be a LOT of dead Chinese soldiers. When will China realize that it can't reclaim Taiwan by force? China could destroy Taiwan, but not reclaim it.

Posted by AllahHateMe 2004-12-14 10:31:10 AM|| 2004-12-14 10:31:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Nope. China is going to swap NorK nukes for a pass on Taiwan. Meaning they force a capitulation by the norks, and we just happen to be out of position to do much to help Taiwan when they do attack. Clean and allows everyone to save face.

But it will have to wait 4 more years, as the Chicoms hope for someone a little more interested in doing business.

Posted by Jimbo19 2004-12-14 10:37:57 AM|| 2004-12-14 10:37:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Well, now we know why there was a steel shortage.

Posted by anonymous2u 2004-12-14 10:40:53 AM|| 2004-12-14 10:40:53 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 I agree that the days of the "massive amphibious assault" have passed (except for the Marines, of course!). I think this invasion fleet is to be used to bring the OCCUPATION force across. There'll be some amphib action, but the main battle will air based, including massive bombing and air assault troops. If it comes to that. There's a lot of pragmatism in Taiwan these days.

Posted by Justrand 2004-12-14 10:43:45 AM|| 2004-12-14 10:43:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Jimbo - The NorKs are going nowhere and accomplishing nothing - there's no value to any quid pro quo.

China has already killed the Golden Goose, Hong Kong, to a great extent (check productivity numbers, if you can squeeze anything honest out of the ChiComs) and serving up Taiwan is and would be nuts.

You have a hell of a point about some future admin - a Prez Hillary would prolly flip that chip on the table without hesitation... but by the time that could happen, the NorKies will have imploded, I hope.

Posted by .com 2004-12-14 10:48:29 AM|| 2004-12-14 10:48:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 might work when each helo carries 25,000 Chicom troops

Posted by Frank G 2004-12-14 10:53:50 AM|| 2004-12-14 10:53:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Makes no sense. Taiwan is a small island, more completely dependent on trade than Britain ever was. China either gets command of the sea and air or they dont. If they DONT, this means a lot of drowned Chicom soldiers, as Mrs D says. If they DO, then they can beat Taiwan by blockade, and dont need an amphibiuous landing.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-12-14 11:00:22 AM|| 2004-12-14 11:00:22 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 If the Prez is Hillary or some other social engineering True Believer who would trade millions of other people's lives for a penny's worth of peace, yes, indeed.

Posted by .com 2004-12-14 11:02:58 AM|| 2004-12-14 11:02:58 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Isn't this kind of thing what daisy cutters are for?

LH, the communists tried blockading Berlin, which didn't work all that well as I recall. I don't think the odds are good for Sen. Rodham's presidency hopes -- the electorate has been voting more Republican with each election, and the youngsters whose outlook was formed by 9/11 will be voting in four years, so I suspect the trend will accelerate.

Posted by trailing wife 2004-12-14 12:12:22 PM|| 2004-12-14 12:12:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Taiwan aint berlin. All we did there was to feed one city, from about a hundred miles away. A city whose economy was already largely dependent on financing from west germany.

Taiwan is an entire society. Youd have to feed 20 million or so, with the nearest friendly base in the Phillipines, several hundred miles away. and the Chinese would be shooting at the planes coming in, as the Russians were not. And feeding them isnt enough. No shipping, no Taiwan economy.

And of course this is a discussion of HOW the chinese would attack Taiwan, not of US policy. US armed intervention would make a Chicom blockade very difficult - but even more so for a landing. Economic retaliation by the US would also make it costly to PRC - again, that applies as much to a landing as a blockade.

All Im saying, is that there are NO circumstances that make an invasion worthwile, that dont make a blockade MORE worthwhile.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-12-14 12:21:59 PM|| 2004-12-14 12:21:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 If they DO, then they can beat Taiwan by blockade, and dont need an amphibiuous landing.

There are quite a few OH Perry class frigates in storge, just right for convoy duty. Taiwan is much smaller than then UK and the PLAN is not the equal to the German sub fleet of WWII.

Posted by Shipman 2004-12-14 1:56:38 PM|| 2004-12-14 1:56:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 I can't argue with LH that in the long run a blockade is easier than an actual invasion, but I don't think a long-run scenario is likely.

The US (unless we get [shudder] President Dean) would not allow a blockade to continue and our Navy is More Than Thick and Rich Enough to break it.

OTOP, an assault only needs control for a short period of time. If they can seize a good hunk of the island by a coup de main, and present us with a fait accompli before we can react, they might think they can get away with it. I think they are misunderestimating us, but who knows?

Posted by jackal 2004-12-14 2:20:47 PM|| [http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2004-12-14 2:20:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Just the notion that the ChiComs could maintain a blockade in a shooting war with the USN is a giggle. How long is it taking them to assemble this WW-II force? I'd give it 24 hrs, tops, if it dared to come out of port and the US decided to sink the bitch.

Posted by .com 2004-12-14 2:29:09 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:29:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 good point Jackal, but its not enough to land on the island, and hold chunk. Theyve got to supply the landed force. For the long term. The same naval and air forces that could resist a blockade, can interfere with landing, and resupply of a landed force. I think we are here seriously underestimating the difficulty of amphibious operations. There havent been a lot of successful opposed amphibious landings in modern history - and scarcely any major ones that the US wasnt leading. You cant just land a few troops and slowly build up (as the Wehrmacht pointed out to Hitler and the Kriegsmarine in 1940) not with the defender throwing everything hes got against your beachhead. You have to land sufficient forces to hold off the counter attack, AND you have to keep them supplied, over the beach, under air attack (unless you have complete air superiority), while your shipping is underattack.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-12-14 2:30:21 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:30:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 The army of Taiwan consist of 12 infantry division, and six armor brigades, not counting reserves. AFAIK these are of quality and training that equals or exceeds the Chicoms. Its hard to see how the Chicoms could hold a bridgehead with less than say, 4 or 5 divisions. A two division force, as suggested in the article would be mincemeat, unless China has full control over the air. IF they could have full control over the air, they could destroy Taiwans commerce easily, frigates or no.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-12-14 2:37:16 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:37:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 What if you had special forces in place on Taiwan coming out of hiding and securing a landing beach? The PLA and the PRC intelligence agencies have got to have a good number of agents in place for just such an operation. Don't know how you solve the resupply problem -- maybe seize a bunch of Taiwanese merchantmen and run them back and forth until the USN sinks them all or gives up.

(Jackal: does OTOP = on the other paw?)

Posted by Jonathan 2004-12-14 2:37:52 PM|| [http://www.workaround.blogspot.com] 2004-12-14 2:37:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Just the notion that the ChiComs could maintain a blockade in a shooting war with the USN is a giggle. How long is it taking them to assemble this WW-II force? I'd give it 24 hrs, tops, if it dared to come out of port and the US decided to sink the bitch.

they wouldnt blockade with surface ships or subs. This aint 1940 (and even then, the Luftwaffe played a large role in the attempt to blockade Britain). Theyd do it with aircraft and missiles. Wed try to hit their air and missile based with cruise missiles. Thats why the chicoms are so interested in tech to use against cruise missiles.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-12-14 2:39:33 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:39:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 A trio of Seawolf Subs would easily make anything except air assault impossible - and one carrier would easily negate that option. This is getting silly - unless we're talking about some Dhimmidonk Prez calling the shots from Fortress America, or the alternative, Paris.

Posted by .com 2004-12-14 2:41:01 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:41:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 how would one carrier prevent the Chicoms from firing missile at Taiwan ports, and attacking merchies headed into or out from Taiwan with missiles and aircraft? One carrier has what, 120 aircraft? At most half fighters? Who have to run CAP over the carrier, and also protect all Taiwan commerce within air range of China? And supplement Taiwans own fighter defence over its ports?

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-12-14 2:44:15 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:44:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 And, in response to your last, their aircraft wouldn't survive an encounter with US aircraft - it would have to be missiles. Do you think any launching system they have could withstand the counter-battery / HARM cover? Since there are now loitering HARM systems in the US inventory, I think they'd get one shot per site. Would they hit anything after the first couple were waxed? Could they hit anything with the prefect first shot? I'll bet our intel knows the answer, but I admit I don't.

The only option in which the Chinese succeed is for the US to take a hike.

Posted by .com 2004-12-14 2:45:58 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:45:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Make that your previous to last. You type so fast, Lh.

Posted by .com 2004-12-14 2:47:16 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:47:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 Just to be real, the show stopper for the PLAN could be an infestation of modern mines. I don't think they've invested much in mine hunters. It's not near as sexy as mime hunting or meme thrashing.

Posted by Shipman 2004-12-14 2:53:01 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:53:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 I think the key is something you said, Lh:
"It ain't 1940."

Indeed. And that does not favor the ChiComs.

Posted by .com 2004-12-14 2:59:33 PM|| 2004-12-14 2:59:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 Mine the Chinese ports and mine the beaches they plan on landing at (and if possible deploy some mines on the sea routes they're using). Its a quick response and its very effective.

Posted by Valentine 2004-12-14 3:42:02 PM|| 2004-12-14 3:42:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 You have a hell of a point about some future admin - a Prez Hillary would prolly flip that chip on the table without hesitation

Is Marc Rich's firm lining up deals in China these days?

Posted by lex 2004-12-14 3:51:12 PM|| 2004-12-14 3:51:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 Jonathan: What if you had special forces in place on Taiwan coming out of hiding and securing a landing beach? The PLA and the PRC intelligence agencies have got to have a good number of agents in place for just such an operation.

Commandos cannot hold territory. They are good for quick in-and-out operations before their opponent figures out where they are, but that's it. They simply don't have enough firepower to prevail against conventional forces. All their opponent has to do is locate them (pretty obvious, since they're defending landing sites) and then pulverize their locations with artillery. Commandos can be useful for other things, such as assassinating Taiwanese leaders, attacking airfields, radar stations, supply depots and the like and carrying out ambushes along key supply routes. But all of these would essentially be suicide missions, which brings up the question of how motivated Chinese troops would be, and whether some of them would surrender and confess all before the invasion was due. The sleeper commando idea sounds good, but is too dangerous to prepare on the scale (tens of thousands) necessary for it to be effective.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-12-14 4:05:20 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-12-14 4:05:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#28 Taiwan is a significant supplier to the US electronics industry. China would not be allowed to blockade Taiwan and in the process shut down us factories for lack of parts. The US could do without the cheap consumer goods a lot more than China could do without the US market. Further, unless the Democratic party stages a comeback, I do believe the US Navy would enforce one of the US government's longest and most strongly held foreign policy positions, unrestricted maritime commerce. We have gone to war once and fought numerous lesser actions to keep the sealanes open.

Posted by RWV 2004-12-14 5:43:21 PM|| 2004-12-14 5:43:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#29 Freedom of the Seas - has a nice ring to it

Posted by lex 2004-12-14 5:45:00 PM|| 2004-12-14 5:45:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#30 Don't forget to destroy those chinese dams; and consider the advantages of detonating neutron bombs in the straits where there are no buildings, but alot of apprehension!

Posted by smn 2004-12-14 8:39:38 PM|| 2004-12-14 8:39:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#31 smn - IIUC we abandoned the Neutron production due to President Carter's *SPIT* personal dislike for their strategic applications

Posted by Frank G 2004-12-14 8:44:03 PM|| 2004-12-14 8:44:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#32 Well we know how well the last invasion fleet China launched went.

I thought the recent election put the pro mainland party in control of the legislature?

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2004-12-14 8:51:43 PM|| [http://www.slhess.com] 2004-12-14 8:51:43 PM|| Front Page Top

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